Could The First Atlantic Hurricane Of 2006 Be On The Way?

Good morning everyone, or almost good afternoon!

As I mentioned on the Hurricaneville Message Board earlier, I continue to be very busy with my high school basketball web site. Ironically, last year, it was the other way around. I was so busy with Hurricaneville, that I didn’t even get a chance to do much work on my hoops web site. This year has been more balanced although the basketball site has received the crux of my attention over the past two weeks. Other factors such as working a great deal of overtime lately, and the quiet season so far in the Atlantic have contributed as well.

Well, with Tropical Storm Chris churning away in the Caribbean, I thought that it would be time to get things going again. Hopefully, this time, I will stay on top of things, and have the site updated more often. Chris formed as a depression late Tuesday night giving the month of July two named storms, which is about average for the second month of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. After becoming the third named storm of the season early on Tuesday morning, Chris gradually strengthened to a moderate tropical system.

However, within the past 18 hours, Chris has shown signs of getting its act together. Winds have grown to 65 mph, and forecasters indicate that the system could become a hurricane within the next 12 to 24 hours. As of now, Chris is situated between to upper level cyclones, which is a conducive environment for development. Consequently, the NHC believes that this storm will become the first hurricane of 2006 in the Atlantic, and gradually increase in intensity to about 80 knots or 90 mph by 72 to 120 hours. More importantly, the forecast track indicates that the storm will continue heading in generally the same direction since it is under the influence of a weakening upper level low in the Bahamas, and a strong ridge to the north of the system.

Looking at other storms that have existed in the current location for Chris were: The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, Hurricane Dog (1950), Hurricane Connie (1955), and Hurricane Betsy (1965). Of those four major hurricanes, Connie, which actually formed around the same time (August 3rd), came up the Eastern seaboard and affected North Carolina and Virginia. Two other storms, The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 and Betsy came through South Florida and moved out into the Gulf after crossing Florida.

Overall things have been quiet in the Atlantic compared to last year, but from 1998 through 2004, the season didn’t really start to get going until around the middle of August, so this season is a bit ahead of schedule in terms of the number of storms. Conditions in the Atlantic have been unfavorable for the most part while over in the Eastern Pacific, they have been quite kind, which has resulted in an active start in that part of the world. So far in 2006, the Eastern Pacific has seen eight named storms, three hurricanes, and one major hurricane. One of the storms, Daniel, threatened Hawaii for a short time.

The Atlantic may be starting to awaken from its slumber.


Comments

One response to “Could The First Atlantic Hurricane Of 2006 Be On The Way?”

  1. […] Continuing to compare this season with the 2004 season, there was already a major hurricane by this time two years ago. Alex emerged as the season’s first storm, and grew to Category Three status shortly after brushing the Carolinas. Another difference was that prior to July 31st, there were no named storms in 2004 while in 2006 there were two while Chris formed very late on July 31st. Nevertheless, forecasts are now calling for a less active season […]