The First Week of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins with No Fanfare
On Monday, June 1st, the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season commenced and its first week was an uneventful one. Historically, the first days of a new Atlantic season are tranquil. However, over the course of this active cycle of storms that the Atlantic has experienced, there have been several years where the season gets off and running with a named storm or even a hurricane. The 1995 season began that way with Hurricane Allison. It did not in 2026. Rather, a quiet start to an interesting year in the Atlantic.
It is interesting because, the talk for the past several months has been about the emergence of El Niño. And, not just any El Niño, but a Super El Niño. One ENSO oscillation that may go down in the history books on the level of 1877-78, 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16. The 1982-83 El Niño was my first recollection of the phenomenon. The one that occurred in 1997-98 put a halt to a burgeoning active tropical cycle in the Atlantic. The 1997 season was one of the few single digit named storm seasons over the past 30 years.
The 2025 Season: A Year of Contradictions
The 2026 Atlantic season follows a 2025 season that was a year of contradictions. Last season was below average in some regards, but it was quite historic in others, especially Category Five systems. Although there were only 13 named storms and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 133 in 2025, three Category Five storms developed.
Thankfully, none made landfall in the United States. Hurricane Melissa, the most intense storm of the year, did impact Jamaica in November. Only one season had more Category Five storms, and that year was 2005, which spawned 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, and 7 major hurricanes.
Even the 2020 season, which surpassed 2005 with 30 named storms, didn’t hold a candle to 2026. Despite having several high end Category Four storms with 150 to 155 mile per hour winds, the 2020 season didn’t yield one Cat Five storm. Returning to the 2026 Atlantic season, nobody is expecting above average activity in the basin this year.
With the emerging El Niño, the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are projected to be below average. Regardless, it only takes one powerful storm to make an impact. So, do not take things for granted and prepare as if this season will be like most others in the past three decades. Why do El Niños hinder tropical activity in the Atlantic?
El Niños and Atlantic Hurricanes
What happens when an El Niño cycle occurs is the waters in the Eastern Pacific become warmer than normal. As a result activity in the Eastern Pacific basin tends to be above average like it was in 1997. Powerful hurricanes such as Guillermo, Jimena, Linda, and Nora made headlines that year. Luckily, the cooler waters of the California current prevented these storms from making history in places such as Los Angeles and Phoenix. Meanwhile, El Niño will simultaneously increase wind shear in the Atlantic. Tropical systems hate wind shear.
Tropical storms and hurricanes are barotropic systems. In other words, they low pressure systems with vertically stacked cloud structure. Most storms experienced in the United States are Mid-Latitude Cyclones or Extratropical Cyclones. These storm systems are baroclinic in nature with a slanted cloud profile. When the Tropical Atlantic is dominated by hostile upper-level winds, tropical storms and hurricanes struggle to develop since they are unable to build their vertical cloud structure.
El Niño Events During this Active Atlantic Cycle
Without the vertical cloud structure, tropical cyclones are unable to produce the intense thunderstorms that coalesce around the center of circulation to produce the fierce eyewall. Taking a look at El Niños during this active cycle, three seasons were significantly impacted by an El Niño: 1997, 2009, and 2015. The 1997 season produced an ACE of only 40.9 thanks to the emergence of a Super El Niño.
Similar to 1997, the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season also spawned less than ten named storms due to a moderate El Niño. A Super El Niño suppressed activity in the Atlantic during the 2015 season. Unlike 1997 and 2009, the 2015 season still managed to produce double-digit named storms, but only four became hurricanes. It had the highest ACE of the three seasons with 62.7. These three seasons compare quite well to Atlantic activity during the first two years of the Super El Niño of 1876-78, but they pale in comparison to the dearth of tropical development during the 1982 and 1983 Atlantic seasons.
| Year | Named Storms | Hurricanes | Major Hurricanes | ACE |
| 1997 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 40.9 |
| 2009 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 52.6 |
| 2015 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 62.7 |
Super El Niños of 1876-78 and 1982-83
The Super El Niño of 1876-78 was one of the most powerful and devastating climate events on record. It contributed to the “Great Famine” that killed between 30 and 50 million people in Asia, Africa and South America according to the American Institute of Physics. According to the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State, the 1876 Atlantic Hurricane Season only had an ACE of 57.1 with five named storms, four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.
Although overall activity was slightly better with an ACD of 73.4, the Atlantic continued to be surpassed in 1877 with eight named storms, three hurricanes, and just one major hurricane. Things gradually returned to normal during the course of 1878 as the number of named storms increased to twelve with ten becoming hurricanes. Despite the increased activity in 1878, the number of major hurricanes remained below normal by today’s standards. Keep in mind though that the data from those years may be incomplete since there was no radar, satellite, or aircraft reconnaissance in those times.
The Super El Niño of 1982-83 was quite potent and restricted tropical activity to a whimper. The 1982 Atlantic Hurricane Season only produced an ACE of 31.5 with six named storms, two hurricanes, and a major hurricane. The 1982 ACE ranks as the 13th lowest on record. The 1983 season was worse.
Although Hurricane Alicia began the season with a bang as a small, but potent major hurricane that caused $3 billion in damage to the Houston, Texas Metropolitan area, the season ended with an ACE of only 17.4. Alicia ended up being the only major storm that season among four named storms and three hurricanes. The 1983 Atlantic season has the fourth lowest ACE on record.
When Will This Year’s El Niño Arrive
This year’s El Niño is forecasted to arrive during the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. The Atlantic’s statistical peak is September 10th. However, the peak season in the Atlantic Basin usually runs from August to October. This peak period is usually characterized by several Cape Verde storms, which are the classic hurricanes. However, if the El Niño emerges as forecast, conditions will likely be quite hostile toward the development of these textbook tropical cyclones. It will be an interesting season to follow for sure.