Tracking The Tropics

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Hurricaneville is going to feature its own outlook on the tropics from time to time. Due to my work schedule, I will not be updating this every day. I will try to update as much as I can. If you don't see anything here, check out a new segment to the blog that I created for Tracking the Tropics. This is not designed to compete with the National Hurricane Center. They are the experts, and more importantly, the official word on tropical storms and hurricanes. Please go to their web site for their advisories, outlooks, and discussions, but feel free to use this as supplemental information. In our outlook, we have a breakdown of what's happening in the Atlantic by four regions: Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, North Atlantic, and Africa.

Good afternoon everyone. We are still watching developments in the Tropical Atlantic with now Tropical Storm Leslie and Hurricane Michael. Leslie had been stationary for much of the day, but as of the most recent advisory, has begun moving. The storm weakened to only have 65 mile per hour winds. Meanwhile, Michael has weakened a bit to a Category Two storm, and it is also moving much more slowly than it was yesterday. Finally, there continues to be an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico generating showers and storms. Let's take a closer look around.



In the Gulf, we continue to monitor what the National Hurricane Center is calling an "elongated area of low pressure." This disturbed area, located in the North Central Gulf, has lost some of its punch from Wednesday and yesterday. It is still producing clouds and some rough weather, primarily on its southern side, but it remains disorganized, and the NHC has only given it a 20 percent chance of tropical formation over the next 24 hours. Tropical formation is possible over the next 24 hours.

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In the Caribbean, skies are just about as clear as they can be. This region is the clearest and most quiet of any in the entire basin this Friday afternoon. No development expected here over the next 24 hours.

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The Western and Central Atlantic continues to be the hub of tropical activity this afternoon. We have Leslie still churning up the waters some 375 miles to the South-Southeast of Bermuda. Winds are down to strong tropical force at 65 miles per hour after they were at minimal hurricane force for almost a full two days. The storm continues to be beleaguered by lacking a well defined inner core, and erosion on its western side thanks to hostile shearing environment.

Meanwhile, Michael remains a hurricane with Category Two strength winds at 105 miles per hour as it spins in the Central Atlantic some 930 miles to the West-Southwest of the Azores. The combined forces of cooler water and hostile upper level winds will gradually cause the storm to spin down. The storm's forward motion has also slowed somewhat to just to the NW at 3 miles per hour. Now, we have two very slow moving systems in the Atlantic.

Finally, we have another flare up of storms associated with low pressure to the southeast of Michael in the Central Atlantic. We will have to see if this holds up and persists for the next couple days. Elsewhere, no tropical formation is expected over the next 24 hours.

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Looking at the African satellite on this early Friday afternoon, there is a new tropical wave that has emerged in the Atlantic just off the Western Coast of Senegal and the extreme southwestern tip of Mauritania. Another cluster of showers and storms is heading westward across Southeastern Nigeria and Western Cameroon. More showers can be found in extreme Southern Sudan and Western Ethiopia. Elsewhere, tropical formation is not expected over the next 24 hours.

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