Slow Moving Storm Nearing Major Hurricane Strength

It has been a while since we’ve reported on the tropics.  Not just in the Atlantic, but also in the Eastern Pacific and Western Pacific, where the bulk of activity has been taking place since the beginning of this month.  We’ll have details on all of that in another blog post soon.  Right now, Hurricaneville is monitoring a new threat in the Atlantic Basin.

Within the past several days, we’ve had a new named storm emerge in the Western Caribbean.  Hurricane Rina first became a depression on late Sunday afternoon near the border between Nicaragua and Honduras.  In the past 54 hours, the storm has exploded to the point where it is on the cusp of becoming the fourth major hurricane of the 2011 season.  Rina has benefited from a rapid intensification that has taken advantage of the conducive conditions currently in the Western Caribbean.

As of this time on Monday night, Hurricane Rina was a Category One Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale with winds of 85 miles per hour.  By Tuesday morning, the storm had strengthened further to a Category Two system with 100 miles per hour, and a minimal central pressure of 970 millibars, or 28.64 inches of Hg (Mercury).  After going through a bit of a holding pattern during the day on Tuesday, Rina intensified to be just shy of becoming a major hurricane.  Churning slowly to the West at 3 miles per hour, Rina is now located some 250 miles to the Southeast of Cozumel or 240 miles to the East-Southeast of Chetumal on the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds associated with this hurricane are now at 110 miles per hour with gusts in upwards of 130 miles per hour.  Barometric pressure has fallen to 966 millibars, or 29.53 inches of Hg.  Hurricane force winds extend some 30 miles from the eye while tropical storm force winds reach out some 140 miles.  The eye has a diameter of 10 nautical miles.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from north of Punta Gruesa to Cancun.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Chetumal to Punta Gruesa along the East Coast of the Yucatan.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Belize from Belize City northward, and for the islands of Roatan and Guanaja in Honduras.

Looking at the latest forecast discussion from the National Hurricane Center, Rina is in a very favorable area for development with light wind shear at the upper levels and very warm sea surface temperatures.  The storm could become a major hurricane within the next 12 to 36 hours.  However, with a major trough over the Eastern United States extending into the Gulf of Mexico, Rina should begin to weaken to a Category Two storm by 48 hours.  Within three days, the storm is forecast to be a Category One storm, and weaken below hurricane status by four days.

The latest forecast track shows Hurricane Rina approaching Cancun by this time Thursday night before turning to the right toward Western Cuba.  Earlier on Tuesday, the GFDL model was showing Rina moving across South Florida in a track very similar to Hurricane Wilma back in 2005.  However, the storm is not expected to stay that strong for long, and that will prevent the jet stream from picking up this storm, and carrying it eastward into South Florida.  Hurricaneville will continue monitoring developments with this hurricane.