Tenacious Storm Battles Back From Open Wave To Major Hurricane

A week ago, it seemed like the elements had gotten the best of Tropical Storm Ophelia.  Upper level wind shear and dry air appeared to have the fledgling storm on the ropes.  By Sunday afternoon, Ophelia had dissipated to an open wave.  Her demise was premature though.  Within 48 hours, the storm was back as a depression, and has flourished since.

On Friday morning, Ophelia energized into the third major hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  It is the fourth hurricane overall so far this season.  There have been 17 depressions and 16 named storms.  All the hurricanes this year have occurred within the last five weeks.  The most devastating storm has been Hurricane Irene while the most powerful has been Hurricane Katia.

Ophelia could get as strong as Irene was at her peak, but it may be a tall order for the system to pass Katia as the season’s strongest storm.  Located about 580 miles South of Bermuda, Hurricane Ophelia now has maximum sustained winds of 115 miles per hour with gusts of 140 miles per hour.  Minimum central pressure is down to 960 millibars, or 28.35 inches of Hg.  The eye is well defined while hurricane force winds reach out some 30 miles while tropical storm force winds reach out about 175 miles.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda.  The five day forecast track has Ophelia moving to the east of Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday morning.  The storm is expected to continue to push northward and possibly affect the extreme Southeastern coast of Newfoundland in the Canadian Maritimes.  With its latest strengthening, Ophelia is expected to still be a tropical storm as it moves towards the maritimes.

The latest forecast discussion indicates that Ophelia should be peaking in its intensity.  However, this storm is tenacious, and has outperformed all the intensity forecasts to this point.  In addition, Ophelia is still to the south of Bermuda, which means that there should be plenty of warm water.  There is still the threat of shear and dry air to hamper it, but the storm has strengthened to the point where it has an environment of its own, which will be harder to overcome.  The storm could strengthen a bit further.