Tropical Storm Ophelia Battling Tough Obstacles; Disturbance Lurks In East Atlantic

After a lull in activity for a few days, things are trying to get busy again in the Tropical Atlantic.  Tropical Storm Ophelia formed earlier in the week, but has been battling very difficult upper level winds.  Meanwhile, a new tropical disturbance has moved off the West African coast into the Eastern Atlantic. There is also an upper level trough in the Western Atlantic, but it is not expected to become a depression or storm at this time.

Ophelia is the main feature in the Atlantic at the moment.  However, it is barely hanging on to minimal tropical storm status.  Thanks to wind shear, the circulation of the storm has been exposed, and the thunderstorm activity that is trying to develop can’t seem to form in the center.  As of the 11:00 AM EDT Advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Ophelia is located some 635 miles to the East-Southeast of the Leeward Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are only at 40 miles per hour with gusts up to 50 miles per hour.  Minimum central pressure of 1006 millibars, or 29.71 inches of Hg.  The storm is moving off to the West at 16 miles per hour.   Tropical storm force winds extend some 260 miles from the center, but they are mostly off to the stronger eastern side of the system.  Ophelia has a very well defined circulation.  However, there are no thunderstorms present there.

While the latest forecast discussion from the NHC does indicate that the dry air and strong southwesterly shear that has been plaguing the storm over the past couple days is expected to persist throughout the forecast period.  However, Opehlia is still expected to hang on as some sort of tropical cyclone although it is possible it could be classified as an open wave within 48 hours.  By the end of the five day forecast period, Ophelia is expected to be a depression or minimal tropical storm.

No watches or warnings are out at the moment, but residents in Bermuda should keep a close eye on the storm.  Meanwhile, a new tropical disturbance is being watched in the Eastern Atlantic.  An area of low pressure located some 385 miles to the South-Southeast of the Cape Verde Islands is becoming better organized.  Showers and thunderstorm activity is growing, and upper level winds are becoming favorable for development.  Right now, there is a 30 percent chance of tropical formation over the next 48 hours.