09.09.11

Weaker Nate Expected To Hit Mexico

Posted in General, Storm Track, Storm Preparation, GWC News, Storm Warning, Storm Safety at 1:58 pm by gmachos

Storm Still Forecast To Become Hurricane; Texas To Lose Out Again On Much Needed Rain

Tropical Storm Nate weakened on Friday.  Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew into the system earlier today, and found it to be not as strong as it has been. In addition, there appears to be more clarity when it comes to the forecast for Nate.  After the models appeared to be all over the place on where this storm might go, there is some consensus now that it will make landfall in Mexico.

The latest forecast track is bad news for Texas, which has over 80 percent of its state dealing with an unprecedented drought.  Brush fires are burning across much of the state including the most notable one in the Austin, Texas suburb of Bastrop.  The Lone Star state also lost out on much needed rainfall from Tropical Storm Lee, which actually made the brush fires worse by feeding them with gusty winds.

As of the 2:00 PM EDT Advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Nate was located some 150 miles west of Campeche, Mexico, or about 305 miles to the East-Southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico.  Maximum sustained winds have dropped to 50 miles per hour with gusts up to 60 miles per hour.  Minimum central pressure has risen to 999 millibars, or 29.50 inches of Hg.  Tropical storm force winds extend some 105 miles from the center.  Nate is moving very slowly to the West-Southwest at 3 miles per hour.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Tampico to Veracruz along the East Coast of Mexico.  Meanwhile, a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Veracruz to Punta El Lagarto and from Tampico to La Cruz.   The forecast discussion indicates that despite having to deal with dry air getting into its circulation, Nate is expected to become a strong Category One Hurricane within the next 48 hours.  The forecast path also suggests a ridge building to the north of Nate and driving it westward into the East Coast of Mexico.

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