Remnants Of Lee Continue To Plague Northeast

Susquehanna River Valley In New York And Pennsylvania Hardest Hit

Good afternoon everyone.  Sorry for the lack of posts on Wednesday, but I went down to the Jersey Shore to capture the heavy surf coming in from Hurricane Katia.  However, I have been keeping track of the weather in this region, and watching the storm rainfall totals tally up from the weather we’ve had here since late Monday night.

The remnants of what was Tropical Storm Lee continues to combine with a cold front to produce torrential rains across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast including many parts of the Garden State that were hit hard by Hurricane Irene a week and a half ago.  Hurricane Katia is also playing an indirect role in this.  As of the time of this report, there has been 3.91 inches of rain from this storm here in Northwestern Middlesex County.

Susquehanna Valley Ravaged By Heavy Rains

However, rainfall amounts further north and west of the area are much, much worse.  In Northern and Western New Jersey, rainfall amounts are an inch or two more.  Meanwhile, over in Central Pennsylvania and upstate New York, the Susquehanna River Valley is seeing some of its worse flooding since 2006, and perhaps since Hurricane Agnes in 1972.  Rainfall estimates in that area are between 12 to 15 inches, and could be more in isolated spots.

Cities and towns along the Susquehanna such as Binghamton, New York, Williamsport, Pennsylvania, and Scranton-Wilkes Barre could be dealing with catastrophic flooding.  In Binghamton, the Susquehanna is already topping the protective flood walls there, and may top the dams as well.  Residents that have left town already are not being allowed back in.  Reports indicate that up to 100,000 people in the Susquehanna Valley may have to evacuate.  Back in Central Jersey, minor to moderate flooding is already occurring along the Raritan River at both Bound Brook and Manville.

The latest flood warning indicates that the Raritan River at Bound Brook is at 29.3 feet, which is a little more than a foot above flood stage (28.0 feet).  At Manville, the Raritan is at 15.3 feet, which is slightly above flood stage (14.0 feet).  The river at Bound Brook is expected to crest at 32 feet while at Manville, it is expected to peak at 18 feet.  While it is a far cry from the near 42 feet that the Raritan crested at Bound Brook during Hurricane Irene, it is still no consolation for flood weary residents there.

Blocking Pattern Caused By Katia

Besides the tremendous amount of moisture streaming in from the south including that from the remnants of Lee, there is a blocking pattern in place that is not letting the frontal system advance to the east and out to sea in the Atlantic.  The reason for that is the approach of Hurricane Katia.  Many have forgotten Katia as an afterthought due to the fact that it is not impacting any land areas.

The storm is trekking between Bermuda and the East Coast of the United States, and while it is producing dangerous surf along the East Coast, it is not expected to get closer than several hundred miles.  However, Katia, still a Category One Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale is still playing a major role in our weather.  As the storm continues to track to the north, its counterclockwise flow around the eye is blocking the front and what’s left of Lee from advancing.

As a result, the tremendous plumes of moisture continue to stream up from the south, and over the same spots.  This is called a training effect.  The showers and storms are moving over the same locales such as Central Pennsylvania just like a train does along a railroad track.  Until Katia begins to move out, we will stay in this stagnant weather pattern, and that will not really begin to take place until late Thursday into Friday when Katia makes its closest approach to the Jersey coast before turning out to sea.

We could still see scattered showers and storms into this weekend as well.  Since mid-June, we have received 24.42 inches of rain here in South Plainfield.   With this week’s rainfall, we are already at or above the normal amount of rainfall in September, which is usually a very dry month climatically for the Garden State.