NOAA, Colorado State, And WSI Seasonal Prognostications All Point To Above Average Year

As we get ready to enjoy the first taste of summer with the arrival of the Memorial Day Weekend across the United States coastline from Maine to Texas, it is time to start getting ready for the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which gets underway on Wednesday, June 1st.

There has been a bit of stirring in the Atlantic over the past month or so with a couple of disturbances that had chances to become at least a subtropical system of some kind, but they didn’t get any farther than that. However, those tropical developments may be a sign of things to come.

Since 1995, the Atlantic Basin has experienced a ton of activity with an average of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes from 1995 to 2010. After a somewhat quiet year in 2009, the Atlantic roared back in 2010 with 21 depressions, 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes including four of Category Four intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Three notable Atlantic Hurricane season forecasts have been issued since the beginning of April, and they are all calling for above average activity. WSI is calling for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes in 2011 while Colorado State is expecting 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, and NOAA is calling for 12 to 18 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 6 major hurricanes. Remember, major hurricanes are tropical cyclones with winds of at least 111 miles per hour, or Category Three strength.

Hurricaneville is no expert in making these kinds of long range prognostications. However, there is a La Nina pattern that is currently in control over the Eastern Pacific, and that is usually a good sign in terms of Atlantic development, because cooler waters in that part of the world prevents tropical storm and hurricane development. Consequently, there is not as much shower or thunderstorm activity that moves across Mexico into the Atlantic Basin, and creates a shearing environment at the upper levels in the Atlantic.

Without wind shear, tropical storms and hurricanes can flourish. However, there are indications that the La Nina pattern in the Pacific is beginning to wane. In addition, sea surface temperatures in the Tropical Atlantic have been cooler than normal thanks in part to weather patterns in the North Atlantic. The possible combination of more wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures in the Atlantic could lead to less activity in the Atlantic.

There is some debate in the forecasting community on whether or not the seasonal forecasts are a good tool. While they may be good in getting the word out that hurricane season is coming, and that it is time to prepare if you live at or near the coastline, they may also be crying wolf. After the 2005 season, there were indications that conditions would be active in 2006 and 2007. In 2006, these forecasts were off the mark as the season was below average while in 2007 there was above average activity, but nothing in the way of landfalling hurricanes in the United States. However, the panic and false alarm that they caused along the East Coast was not good for businesses.

Last year was a very active season, but there wasn’t much in the way of coastal impacts. Hurricane Earl came very close to the East Coast of the United States, and created a great deal of wave activity in places such as the Jersey Shore and Long Island, but it never made landfall in those places. On the other hand, 1992 was not so active a season, but wound up being one of the most memorable of all, especially for those in South Florida since Hurricane Andrew, a monster Category Five Hurricane came ashore there causing $27 billion in damage. The 2005 season with the likes of hurricanes Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma was the exception where the bite lived up to the bark.

Stu Ostro of the Weather Channel has been cynical about the usefulness of these seasonal forecasts as are current and former TWC hurricane experts, Dr. Rick Knabb and Dr. Steve Lyons. All three point out that numbers don’t matter. These forecasts just point out activity, they do not indicate where these storms will end up if they do make landfall, or how strong they will be when they do hit land. I have grown to the same belief.

Don’t get me wrong. I was always fascinated on how Dr. Gray put together his seasonal forecasts. I used to receive them in the mail before the advent of the Internet. I still believe that they are helpful in the sense that they tell you that Hurricane Season is coming, and to get prepared. However, they can be misleading, and either put people in a false sense of security, or a great deal of panic. All you need is one landfalling hurricane of anywhere from Category Two to Category Five strength depending on your location along the coast, and you have a season that you’ll will want to forget for the rest of your life.