Good morning everyone. Well, it has been a couple days since I last posted to the blog. During that time, I’ve posted some video of the effects from Ernesto here in New Jersey last week. I plan to take a trip out to the Jersey Shore on Sunday, or early next week to catch a glimpse of some of the wave action and heavy surf that should be coming as a result of Florence. If I do, I’ll post some video of it here on the site. In addition to that, I’ve been writing down some rough drafts of a book review that I have planned for the month of September as well as an article on Ernesto. So, keep your eyes peeled for those two things in the coming week.

Speaking of Florence, it is finally getting its act together after battling some hostile upper level wind conditions thanks to a nearby trough. Maximum sustained winds with the storm, are now 65 miles per hour, and it is forecast to become the season’s second hurricane within the next 12 hours. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the island of Bermuda, which appears to be in the direct crosshairs of this developing storm. Barometric pressure in the center of circulation has dropped seven millibars, or 0.21 inches of Hg (Mercury) in just the past 15 hours.

Hurricane Hunter aircraft is expected to fly into the storm during the day today to determine the true intensity of the storm. Looking at the latest track courtesy of Eye of the Storm (see the map above), Florence seems to be making a beeline right for the island. The last time the island took a direct hit from a hurricane was in 2003 when Hurricane Fabian, a Category Three storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, pounded the island in what turned out to be the worst storm in fifty years in Bermuda.

Looking at the latest satellite imagery, Florence has developed a nice core with lots of reds and oranges to indicate the colder, and higher cloud tops. In addition, there is a nice outflow patter developing around the system. The only thing it is lacking is an eye feature. Compared to what it looked like 15 to 24 hours ago, the storm looks much more organized, and a lot like a fledgling hurricane. It won’t be long before Florence becomes the second hurricane of 2006. There has already been some heavy surf and rip currents being reported around the islands in the region including the Northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Bermuda itself.

That wave action, high surf, and rip tides are expected to affect the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Coasts beginning on Sunday, and they could last all the way until Wednesday. Currently, Florence is South of Bermuda and still moving to the West-Northwest, which is making me wonder about this turn to the Northwest, and then North the storm is supposed to make with time. A front is presently moving off the East Coast of the United States, and that is expected to give Florence the projected turn away from the United States East Coast.

Now, while I’m no weather expert despite having some meteorological background, I do recall that Hurricane Katrina was initially supposed to cross South Florida, emerge in the Gulf, and then turn toward the north to make landfall near Appalachicola. Well, we know that changed, and for the worst if you live in New Orleans and the Central Gulf Coast. So, I wouldn’t let my guard down completely if I live in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. These storms are quite quirky, and they tend to have a mind of their own sometimes. Once again, the key will be whether or not, it makes the 70.0 West longitude line. Best advice, continue to follow the weather reports online, on the Weather Channel, and your local television stations.