Debby Doesn’t Appear To Be A Threat, But Disturbance Could Be

Good morning everyone,

Well, I’ve just updated the home page with the latest information on Tropical Storm Debby. As of 5:00 AM Thursday morning, things remained status quo with the minute tropical storm. Maximum sustained winds remained about 45 mph with gusts over 50 mph while the minimum central pressure rose slightly to 1003 mb, or 29.62 inches of Hg (Mercury). The fourth named storm of the 2006 season continues to move rapidly to the West-Northwest at 20 mph.

The forecast for the next 24 hours calls for slow, but gradual strengthening while the long term forecast anticipates Debby to be a hurricane within the next 72 hours. As previously mentioned, Debby is moving very briskly to the West-Northwest over the open waters of the Atlantic. Located some 845 miles to the West-Northwest of the Cape Verde Islands, the tropical system is already quite far to the North for a storm out in the Eastern and Central Atlantic. So, it is not expected to be a threat to the United States although it may pose a problem for Bermuda next week. There has been some debate on whether or not this system would keep moving westward, or recurve eventually.

That debate seems to be hinging on the overall strength of the storm. If the storm stays weak, its circulation would be more likely to continue westward while its convection was ripped apart. On the other hand, if it gradually strengthened, it would be a more formidable structure and less likely to be sheared apart, and more likely to be steered northward into cooler waters. Currently, there is a ridge of high pressure to the Northeast of Debby, and a mid to upper trough to the Southwest. A break in the ridge is to the west, and the present thinking is that Debby will take advantage of that gap since tropical cyclones like to take the path of least resistance, and turn Northwest and then North into the open waters of the North Atlantic.

With that you would think that residents along the East Coast of the U.S. from Maine to Texas could rest easy, but that is not the case. As I have briefly been mentioning the past couple of days, there is another tropical disturbance lurking in the Atlantic. Nearing the Windward Islands, this disturbance has been getting its act together over the past two days or so, and there are indications that this will be our next depression, or perhaps even a storm. If it does become a tropical storm, it will be the fifth one of the year, and named Ernesto. Although tropical cyclones have some difficulty gaining strength once they move into the Central Caribbean, the waters are plenty warm in this region, and upper level conditions are more favorable for development.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we still have Hurricane Ileana, which recently was a major hurricane with 120 mph winds and gusts to 145 mph making it a strong Category Three Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. However, it appears to be waning this morning as the satellite imagery depicts warmer cloud tops and a more ragged structure although the system still does have a discernible eye. Further west in the Pacific, we still are dealing with Ioke, which past to the North of Johnston island, which is uninhabited. At last report, maximum sustained winds with the Central Pacific hurricane were at 105 mph making it a Category Two. Twelve people had to take shelter on the island in order to weather the storm according to news reports, but there were no casualties.

2 thoughts on “Debby Doesn’t Appear To Be A Threat, But Disturbance Could Be

  1. […] At peak intensity, Gordon had maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, and a minimum central pressure of 955 mb, or 28.20 inches of Hg (Mercury). Now, Helene has matched those peak winds, and is only several millibars off of Gordon’s lowest pressure. The chances for strengthening should increase to as a trough of low pressure in the vicinity is expected to lift out. Helene is the fourth storm in the Atlantic to miss the Lesser Antilles, and curve in the direction of Bermuda. Previous storms that have followed this general path in 2006 have been Debby, Florence, and Gordon. […]

  2. […] To date, the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season has had five of its nine named storms follow this similar track in the Central Atlantic: Debby, Florence, Gordon, Helene, and now Isaac. Only Florence and Gordon came closest to making direct hits on land as Flo moved just to the west of Bermuda while Gordon passed south of the Azores. While the storms have been either merciful or directed away from land, there still has been a bit of activity in the tropics the past six weeks or so. Since August 20th, there have been six named storms, four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. […]

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