Lisa And Matthew Form Over The Past Few Days For Ten Named Storms In Last Month

With the demise of Igor and the dissipation of Julia in the Atlantic, one would think that there would finally be a break in the action. Unfortunately, that is not the case. In a season that had started out so quietly, but has now come on very strong in the past month. Tropical Storm Lisa formed on Monday, and after some struggles in the Eastern Atlantic, it has regained tropical storm status. Closer to home, we have a new threat. Tropical Storm Matthew, which had been a very disorganized tropical wave in the Caribbean, got better organized over the past two days, and became a depression on Thursday afternoon, and grew into the season’s latest named storm several hours later.

We are going to focus mostly on Matthew not only because it is the latest storm and the closest to the United States, but most importantly, there are also indications that this system could impact the Gulf Coast or East Coast of the U.S. sometime next week. As of the 5:00 PM EDT advisory on Thursday, Matthew was still a minimal tropical storm with 40 mile per hour winds, gusts up to 50 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure was still fairly high at 1006 millibars, or 29.71 inches of Hg (Mercury). The storm was located some 435 miles to the East of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, and moving to the West at 16 miles per hour. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning is currently in effect from Puerto Cabezas to Limon in Honduras.

The Weather Channel, which has been watching this storm for several days while it was a disturbance, indicates that Matthew will likely impact somewhere along the U.S. coast. High pressure, which is responsible for the last stand of summer here in the Northeast, is also keeping Matthew to the south. However, over the next several days, a trough will develop in the east, which will split the ridge in two, and leave an opening for this storm to exploit. Remember, tropical storms and hurricanes look for a path of least resistance. As a result, there is a chance that the storm could head north into the Gulf of Mexico by next week.

According to the latest track given by TWC, Matthew will be hugging the coast of the Yucatan at the end of the five day forecast period on Tuesday. Intensity forecasts indicate that Matthew will be a Category One Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale with maximum sustained winds of 80 miles per hour. Environmental conditions in this region will be very favorable for development over the next several days. Sea surface temperatures in this area are always very high due to its close proximity to the equator with its high sun angle, and longer periods of daylight. There is also very little upper level wind shear to hinder intensification. The only barrier to development will be the storm’s close proximity to land.

Moving on to Lisa, the storm regained tropical storm status in the 5:00 PM EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Maximum sustained winds with this system were also 40 miles per hour with gusts estimated to be up to 50 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure is 1001 millibars, or 29.56 inches of Hg. Located some 320 miles to the West-Northwest of the Cape Verde Islands, Lisa has not been moving much. As a matter of fact, it is stationary as of the latest advisory. Despite its tenacity, the storm is a very small one with tropical storm force winds only reaching some 35 miles from its center of circulation. The latest discussion also indicates that there’s not a lot of time to strengthen with a gradual weakening trend expected beyond 24 hours.

With the formation of these two systems this week, we’ve seen 15 depressions, 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes this season. Ten named storms have formed in the past month.