Earlier this week, Weather Service International updated its seasonal forecast for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season. According to an article published by Reuters, WSI reduced the number of named storms this season. The updated forecast projects that there will be 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. However, it did indicate that there is an increased risk of a impact along the Northeast United States coastline. The threat for the Northeast from Cape Hatteras to Maine is comparable to that of the Gulf Coast States and Florida.

So far the Atlantic Hurricane Season has gotten off to a slow start, but within the past week, things have picked up with the development of Hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl. In addition, another healthy wave is moving westward in the Eastern Atlantic. Originally, WSI, which is a private weather firm that first came to prominence on America Online during the 1990s, had projected 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. The East Coast of the U.S. appears more vulnerable this year due to the warm sea surface temperatures and atmospheric weather patterns. So far this season, there have been already one storm tracking near Bermuda.

Several weeks ago, Tropical Storm Colin made a track north of the Leeward Islands, and turned northward near Bermuda. Hurricane Danielle appears to be on a similar course, and Tropical Storm Earl is projected to move north of the Leeward Islands as well. The most recent storm to affect the Northeastern United States was Hurricane Noel while Hurricane Ophelia was the last hurricane to affect the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Early on in this most recent active phase, the Outer Banks of North Carolina were a target with the likes of hurricanes such as Bertha (1996), Fran (1996), Bonnie (1998), and Floyd (2000) making a mess of things there. However, since then, the Gulf Coast and Florida have been a primary target for major storms, especially in the years 2004 and 2005. Other seasonal forecasts have scaled back as well. Originally, NOAA issued a seasonal forecast of 14 to 23 named storms back in June only to scale back that forecast to between 14 and 20 named storms in August. It has cited the development of La Nina as the reason behind the projected increased activity this year.

The originator of the seasonal forecast, Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University has recently stepped down from doing that, but has handed the reins over to Dr. Phil Klotzbach. Earlier this month, Klotzbach with the help of Gray, issued a forecast of 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. The forecast update was no different from that given in June, and is still actually up from the forecast given in April. Back in December, Klotzbach and Gray indicated that there would be between 11 and 16 named storms, 6 to 8 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes.

There has been a lot of controversy with seasonal forecasts. Many feel that while these forecasts get people ready for hurricane season, they can be unreliable, and create too much hype for storms. When the storms don’t come, residents become complacent. The moral of the story is that all you need is one storm to impact your area. Hurricane Andrew back in 1992 was a classic example since it was a Category Five Hurricane that formed during a below average season.