With Tropical Storm Fred well out into the Atlantic, and most likely being a storm for the fish and ships, there is more of a focus on our coastal low moving up the East Coast. The storm has picked up some momentum, and is now bring some of its outer fringes to just off the Jersey Shore according to the latest radar loop from Fort Dix. The storm is still not a tropical entity since it is still along a trailing frontal boundary, and upper level winds just aren’t there for development. In addition, as the system heads northward, it will be moving into relatively cooler waters.

Nevertheless, the storm is packing a wallop for those along the Outer Banks of North Carolina. A Gale Warning is presently in effect for the coastal waters south of Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon. Winds along the coast so far have been relatively light. Local weather conditions nearby Cape Hatteras have sustained winds of 13 miles per hour with gusts up to 22 miles per hour. Kill Devil Hills is reporting sustained winds of 10 miles per hour with gusts to 18 miles per hour. Further north in Elizabeth City winds are sustained around 9 miles per hour.

Continuing to head north into Virginia, winds are calm in Williamsburg with just .01 inches of rainfall in the last hour. Over in Norfolk, things are more tumultuous with winds steady at 15 miles per hour gusting to 25 miles per hour. Rainfall there is only about .03 of an inch. Near Virginia Beach, winds are slightly higher at 17 miles per hour with gusts up to 26 miles per hour. Approximately .07 inches of rain fell in the past hour there. Looking at the rainfall totals out of North Carolina, they range from 8 to 10 inches along the coast in places such as Cape Hatteras and Morehead City while inland areas such as Jacksonville received up to 3 to 4 inches.

A Flood Watch is still in effect for parts of Central Virginia, East Central Virginia, and the Southeast Peninsula of Virginia, where rainfall amounts could range from 2 to 4 inches with isolated areas getting as much as 5 inches. Some spots have already received 2 to 4 inches. A Flood Advisory is already in effect for portions of this region including Norfolk, Newport News, Hampton, and Chesapeake. Further north in the Mid-Atlantic, Hazardous Weather Outlooks have been issued for portions of Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey and Pennsylvania while a Gale Warning is in effect for the coastal waters from Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon.

There is some uncertainty as what this low will do as it gets farther north with time. The GFS has the storm bringing a good deal of rain to New Jersey within 60 to 72 hours while the NAM has the storm keeping its rain south of the Garden State during the same time frame. The GFS also has rain spreading into Central and Eastern Pennsylvania along with South Central New York while the NAM has rainfall a bit more to the west in those two states.

Hurricaneville will continue to monitor the progress of this system as it moves closer to New Jersey and the Tri-State area over the next few days.