Dujuan Likely To Remain A Storm And Stay Offshore

Right now the only real serious activity at the moment throughout the tropics is Tropical Storm Dujuan. As of 2 AM EDT, the storm was located in the Western Pacific some 720 miles to the South-Southwest of Tokyo, Japan. Dujuan was packing winds of 55 miles per hour, and indications are that it will remain a storm after showing signs of becoming a typhoon on Saturday.

Looking at the latest info from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s web site, the storm has weakened to have winds of 50 miles per hour with gusts up to 60 miles per hour. The storm has moved to within 580 miles of Tokyo, and it is moving to the North-Northeast at 10 miles per hour. Maximum wave heights with Dujuan are still topping off at 25 feet.

The cone of uncertainty has shifted to the right a bit with the left fringe staying offshore near the Tokyo outskirts within 48 hours. The warning graphic also indicates no significant change in strength throughout the forecast period. Winds are only expected to increase to 50 knots, or 60 miles per hour with gusts up to 65 knots, or minimal hurricane force over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Looking at the latest infrared satellite imagery, you can see the system has fair outflow, and good convection along with banding. However, the Northeast quadrant appears to be weak, and the center is somewhat exposed there. The forecast discussion indicates that along with the lack of deep convection over the past 12 hours or so. Water vapor imagery indicates an upper level trough is entrenched over Japan, and is providing strong westerly winds to the North of Dujuan.

Consequently, the forecast track of the storm continues to head to the Northeast and accelerate with time. In addition, the poor organization of the system coupled with the strong westerly flow will prevent Dujuan from getting much stronger. Meanwhile, in the Central Pacific, conditions near Hawaii are quite tranquil despite the presence of some early morning clouds. The bulk of the convection is staying to the south and west of the island chain.