Good morning again everyone. Hurricaneville continues to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Danny, which remains disorganized. The storm has weakened even further since our last posting Thursday afternoon. Located some 350 miles to the South of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, or about 830 miles South-Southwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts, Danny has weakened to a minimal tropical storm with winds of only 40 miles per hour. According to the forecast advisory, wind gusts are as high 50 miles per hour while minimum central pressure has remained steady at 1008 millibars, or 29.77 inches of Hg.

The center of circulation remains exposed while much of the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with Danny continues to be to the north and east. So, even if Danny heads westward toward the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and eventually pass over Southeastern New England, they will likely not see the strongest winds from the storm since they lie on the western side of the official forecast track. Winds are very light on the western side since no convection has wrapped around the center, which is a key ingredient for tropical development. The NHC Discussion actually has Danny’s circulation moving westward away from the showers and thunderstorms.

In addition, the forecast discussion doesn’t show Danny getting much stronger either. With an upper level low to the west, a stationary front to the northwest, and a trough digging in from the Midwest, upper level conditions are getting less and less favorable for development. There is still a 12 hour window for strengthening, but after that, the SHIPS model projects wind shear of up to 30 knots developing in a much more hostile environment for the storm. Nevertheless, the SHIPS has Danny still becoming a 66 knot hurricane in 48 hours. The NHC only sees Danny strengthening to have 45 knot, or 50 mile per hour winds by the end of the five day forecast period, but by that time, it will be extratropical.

In spite of Danny’s decline, there is still a Tropical Storm Watch in effect for the North Carolina coast from Cape Lookout to Duck including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Interests from North Carolina northward into New England and the Canadian Maritimes should continue to monitor the progress of the system. Additional watches may be issued later today. The forecast cone has narrowed, but it still shows the storm getting very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and then heading into Long Island and New England on Saturday. New Jersey is to the left of the forecast track, and now isn’t even part of Accu-Weather’s cone of uncertainty.

Looking at local weather statements by the National Weather Service offices in Newport/Morehead City, North Carolina and Boston, Massachusetts, there is a high likelihood of rough seas and rip currents. As of 6:14 AM EDT this morning, there was a decreasing probability of tropical storm conditions over the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The most significant threats from Danny were going to be dangerous surf and high rip current risks along the beaches. The effects of wind, rain, and surge were forecast to be minimal. Breaking waves are expected to be between 4 to 6 feet while seas are expected to be between 8 to 10 feet near the coast with isolated 10 to 12 foot seas further offshore. Meanwhile, in Boston, a Tropical Storm Watch was issued at 11:32 AM for the Massachusetts coastal waters south of Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket and east of Cape Cod. The likelihood of tropical storm conditions has increased, and seas are expected to be as high as 15 feet.

Hurricaneville will continue to monitor Danny’s progress throughout the day, and provide updates whenever it can.