Good late afternoon to everyone. I had watched some of the satellite imagery from the Weather Channel as of about 2:00 PM EDT from my home in Northwestern Middlesex County, New Jersey. As I watched, I said to myself that Tropical Storm Danny looked more disorganized that it did earlier today. Evidently, I was on to something as the latest advisory indicates that Danny has weakened. The 5:00 PM Advisory from the National Hurricane Center indicates that the maximum sustained winds in Danny have decreased to 50 miles per hour while its minimum central pressure has risen slightly to 1008 millibars, or 29.77 inches of Hg.

Hurricaneville continues to monitor Danny as it drifts westward at some 2 miles per hour. The storm is now located some 545 miles to the South-Southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, or 295 miles Northeast of Nassau in the Bahamas. As the report on TWC indicates, Danny is struggling in its battle against a hostile environment. If you have had a chance to look at the color enhanced satellite loop of the North Atlantic, you can see that another element, a shortwave trough in the Southeastern United States is coming into play. This trough, which is moving northeastward, is bringing clouds and showers to Florida, Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi. The water vapor imagery suggests that the exposed circulation is being beat up to say that least while dry air has developed in the area of Danny. The deeper convection in the thunderstorms North and East of the low level circulation has eroded in the past few hours.

The latest discussion from the NHC indicates that Danny will not reach minimal hurricane strength in the next 48 hours as suggested earlier in the day. The latest intensity forecast has Danny remaining a tropical storm for the next 48 hours reaching maximum sustained winds of 60 knots, or 70 miles per hour. Within 72 hours, the system will become extratropical. Important to note that both the GFDL (79.7 knots or 90 mph winds) and HWRF (71.6 knots or about 80 mph winds) models are still calling for Danny to become a hurricane within 36 hours. SHIPS model has Danny with 70 knot winds (80 mph) in 48 hours.

Meanwhile, the forecast track models have shifted to the left a bit. The NHC official forecast has the storm very near the Outer Banks of North Carolina by Saturday morning, and very near the Cape Cod area by Saturday evening. The models are in agreement that the system will turn to the north in 24 to 36 hours. The new NHC track shifted to the left a bit, but is still to the right of many of the models. The slow progress of Danny to the west has changed the track over the first 48 hours. With all of that said, a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect from the North Carolina coast from Cape Lookout to Duck including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

Hurricaneville will continue to monitor the progress of this system as it continues to move in the direction of the United States. More updates will be posted in the blog as well as in the storm report and Tracking the Tropics sections.