Good evening. Well, it appears that the bulls eye that was on the Central Gulf Coast this time last week will be ready to come out of the closet again this week as Hurricane Ike appears to be headed for landfall there down the road. Pushed to the West-Southwest on Friday and Saturday thanks to the influence of a strong subtropical ridge to the north of it, Ike ended up moving through the Turks and Caicos Islands as well as the Southeastern Caribbean while also dumping torrential rains along the Northern Coast of Haiti.

Haiti, which dealt with torrential rains from both Hurricane Gustav and Hurricane Hanna over the past two weeks, was hit for a third time along its Northern Coast as Ike’s outer bands brought another deluge. So far in Haiti, there has been a total of 259 people have lost their lives in the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere thanks to Fay, Gustav, and Hanna.

At one point during the middle of last week, Hurricane Ike went through a period of rapid intensification, which took it from a strong tropical storm of 65 miles per hour, and 996 millibars to a Category Four Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale with winds of 145 miles per hour, and a central pressure of 935 millibars. From early Thursday morning on, Ike underwent a gradual weakening phase, where its winds dropped to just below major hurricane strength at 110 miles per hour by Saturday morning before regaining strength quickly to Category Four with 135 mile per hour winds and a minimum central pressure of 945 millibars as of the 2:00 PM EDT Advisory from the National Hurricane Center on Sunday.

The roller coaster ride continued for Hurricane Ike late this afternoon as the storm showed signs of weakening yet again as it approaches the rugged terrain of Cuba. As of the 5:00 PM EDT Advisory, the major hurricane’s winds slackened once more to 120 miles per hour while its central pressure has remained steady at 945 millibars, or 27.91 inches. Almost the entire island of Cuba is either under a Hurricane Watch or Warning as of this time. Located some 75 miles North-Northeast of Guantanamo, Cuba, Hurricane Ike is moving off to the West at 14 miles per hour, and it is expected to continue this motion for the next 24 to 36 hours. Consquently, it will move away from the Southeastern Bahamas, and over Eastern Cuba during the night.

Due to the orographic lifting of the very moist and tropical air brought by Ike, there will be torrential rainfall ranging from 6 to 10 inches with isolated areas receiving up to 15 inches. Flash floods and mudslides to the communist country. The lifting will provide a benefit though as it will cause condensation, which will release heat energy that in turn will warm the very cold cloud tops in Ike’s thunderstorms. As a result, Ike will weaken significantly during the next 36 to 48 hours, and be a minimal hurricane prior to returning to more favorable conditions in the warm waters of the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Beyond that though, Ike is expected to regain its strength and be a major hurricane once more by the end of the five day forecasting period. The subtropical ridge that has been driving it, is beginning to weaken, and a trough is supposed to move through the Eastern United States during the week, and that will make Ike turn slightly left, and slow down.