Good evening. I have been watching events unfold this past week in Southeast Asia, and after reading the book written by MIT Professor, Kerry Emanuel, called Divine Wind that had an excerpt on the November 1971 Cyclone that left some 300,000 people dead in East Pakistan, all I could think of was how similar these situations were. Now while it is true that Pakistan’s military regime then and now was not as secretive as that of the current ruling military junta in the Myanmar Republic, you can’t help but think of how both failed to help the people they were supposed to serve, and that these regimes were more interested in maintaining power. However, one has to wonder the potential internal and geopolitical problems that the inability of the Myanmar government to get the tons of essential aid that has been shipped in from nearby Thailand as well as far away places such as the United States have produced.

Back in 1971 in South Asia there was a great deal of tension. Both India and Pakistan had battled in two wars since the two countries were formed in 1947 after the work of Gandhi earned them both their independence from the British crown. The two countries fought over the disputed Kashmir region back in 1948 and 1965, and eventually went to war again later in 1971 thanks to the civil war that developed in Pakistan. Back then, Pakistan was divided into two parts: West Pakistan, which lay to the north and west of India, and East Pakistan, which was located to the East. When the devastating cyclone struck in November 1971, and the central Pakistani government, which was situated in West Pakistan, failed to respond adequately and effectively, those that survived the terrible storm demanded autonomy. Consequently, war broke out through the Islamic country, and refugees from both the storm and subsequent war fled into India causing a great deal of tension there.

The number of refugees that came into India grew to some 10 million, and when Pakistani war planes attacked India’s Kashmir region, the Hindu nation fought back invading both East and West Pakistan. After India occupied East Pakistan, a new nation was born as it then declared independence, and renamed itself Bangladesh. A cease fire was later declared several weeks later as what had been West Pakistan came away the loser of the war in so many ways. In addition to the formation of Bangladesh, the new nation of Pakistan emerged with the father of the recently assassinated Benazir Bhutto emerging as the new leader. How does this relate to the situation that currently exists in Myanmar, which is also known as Burma?

Well, if you read the latest article on the internet courtesy of Time Magazine, there are a number of options on the table for how to deal with this current crisis in the wake of Cyclone Nagris, which struck just six days ago across the Irawaddy Delta with its Category Four strength winds of nearly 150 mph according to reports. The storm carved a path of destruction over a 30,000 square mile area that included the city of Rangoon. Moderate to severe flooding was reported throughout the delta region as the storm has left a toll of over 23,000 people according to state media in Burma. However, a leading U.S. official in the isolated country stated late in the week that as many as 100,000 people could have been killed by the cyclone.

Yet, despite the pleas from international organizations, offers of assistance from neighboring countries such as Thailand and Qatar, and urging by both President Bush and the First Lady, Laura Bush to let aid and accompanying aid workers come in to help, the military junta, in the throes of major paranoia and xenophobia, has refused to let others in. Moreover, they have put pictures of leaders of the military regime on the boxes of aid seized from the international organizations as if to make those in the country believe that the government itself was behind the aid being delivered. Then, to top that off, the junta has decided to continue going forward with an election as if nothing happened.

The Time article questions whether an invasion of Myanmar is necessary in order for the aid to get through to those, who desperately needed. It also suggests that China, one of the few countries in the region should apply some pressure to the regime in order for it to relent and let both the aid and relief workers into the country to do the things that they have to do in order for much needed work to begin in earnest. Heads of major relief organizations fear that by the time a decision is made to invade, it may be already to late because such things as famine, starvation, and cholera as well as other waterborne diseases may well have a significant effect by then. The junta is already using the aid as bait to entice survivors to vote “yes” in the referendum that took place on Saturday. In addition, resources needed to handle the ongoing crisis has been diverted to help with the election.

Last fall, there was unrest and uprisings in the Southeast Asian country that were put down forcefully by the dictatorship there, and perhaps the response by the junta in the wake of this devastating storm was its way of getting rid of those, who stand in opposition to its rule so that it could stay in power. You could even say that what has occurred there is genocide, or mass murder. Bottom line though, the sand in the hour glass is running out, and more lives are being lost every day. Somebody has to act, and the time is now.