Storm Heading West-Northwest

During the course of the past 24 hours, especially the last 6 to 12 hours, the barometer at GWC has been falling. Humidity has also been on the rise, and there has been some breezy conditions at times here in South Plainfield, NJ. Believe it or not, all of this is due to Hermine, which has been finally making that anticipated westward move during the day on Monday.

Prior to taking a trip out to Waterfront Park in South Amboy this morning, the barometric pressure at GWC was at 30.21 inches (8:21 AM EDT). Since then, the barometer has dropped 0.23 inches to 29.98 inches of Hg. Pressure is still quite high. Weak Tropical Depressions usually have minimum central pressures of 29.80 or 29.83 inches of Hg.

Meanwhile, the humidity on Sunday had dropped significantly as the storm pulled further and further to the east. On Sunday afternoon, the humidity dipped to 40 percent for a dew point of 53. Since that time, the moisture has been on the rise, climbing to 58 percent for a dew point of 64. Temperature reached a high of 84 degrees late Monday afternoon.

Over the past few hours, the satellite imagery has shown Hermine making a more westward move. In addition, the more thicker band of clouds are pinwheeling westward across Long Island toward New York City and the Jersey Shore. More cirrus and cirrocumulus clouds have developed overhead of GWC during the course of the afternoon. Nevertheless, skies remained sunny at sunset.

The Coastal Flood Warning that existed along the Jersey Shore on Monday has been discontinued, but there are still areas in coastal Monmouth and Ocean counties that are dealing with heavy surf and rip currents. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for the coastal waters offshore. Currently, Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine is inching closer to the Eastern tip of Long Island.

Located some 150 miles Southeast of the Eastern tip of Long Island, Hermine has also picked up some forward speed as it moves to the West-Northwest at 9 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds remain at 70 miles per hour with gusts up to 85 miles per hour. Barometric pressure remains steady at 997 millibars, or 29.44 inches of Hg. Tropical storm force winds continue to extend some 230 miles from the center. Weakening is forecast to begin tonight.

Although sea surface temperatures off the Jersey Shore and Long Island have been above normal this summer, they remain in the mid to upper 70s, which is still below the threshold for supporting tropical development. Water temperatures need to be at least 80 degrees or higher to support tropical storm or hurricane formation and growth. Furthermore, since Hermine has been basically sitting in the same general location for the past several days, upwelling has taken place, which brings cooler water to the surface.

The National Hurricane Center’s intensity forecast calls for Hermine to start gradually weakening over the next 12 hours, and fall below tropical storm strength between 48 and 72 hours before dissipating in four days. The NHC’s forecast track is calling for Hermine to continue its westward jog for the next 36 hours or so before turning to the Northeast and accelerating on Wednesday.