Change in Storm Path Leaves Only Coastal Areas With Any Impacts

This morning, Greg’s Weather Center and Hurricaneville took a trip out to several locations along the Northern portion of the Jersey Shore. From South Amboy and Laurence Harbor in Middlesex County to Cliffwood Beach down to Sandy Hook in Monmouth County, we checked both the weather and surf conditions from Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine offshore.

Prior to leaving though, we noticed that the barometric pressure was running quite high at 30.19 inches of Hg (Mercury), and still rising. With such high pressure, one could only surmise that good weather was on tap. News reports indicated that Hermine had gone further east than expected, which took much of the clouds, wind, and waves away from the shoreline.

Sky conditions at all the locations we visited on this Sunday morning where mostly sunny with some cirrocumulus clouds. It was hard to believe that a powerful storm was just a few hundred miles offshore. Only when we got down to Keyport’s Waterfront Park did we begin to notice that the winds had picked up a bit. Further down the Bayshore in Union Beach, the water levels increased and the wave action picked up a bit.

Spray and some sea water was coming over the barrier at Union Beach to create some overwash on the walkway near Fireman’s Park. Talking to some of the people there, we learned that one of the creeks was beginning to fill up from the increased surf and wakes piling up. Waves crashed along the pier at Bayshore Waterfront Park in Port Monmouth as well. The most significant wave action would be at Sandy Hook, where nobody was allowed to go in the water.

The waves were large, numerous, and frequent, which turned the ocean into a more foamy grey color. Winds were actually lighter at Sandy Hook, but the surf was still rough. Clouds were also on the increase with more cirrocumulus clouds along with some small cumulus clouds. There are some photos and video from some of the heavy surf along the coast during our trip on the GWC and Hurricaneville Facebook page and Twitter feed.

Returning to GWC in South Plainfield, we noticed that the light winds returned, but the barometric pressure was still high at 30.20 inches of Hg, and the humidity levels were considerably lower. The dew point was only in the mid 50s. So, the combination of rising pressure and falling humidity only signified that the storm was pulling away from New Jersey. Nevertheless, the post-tropical cyclone is expected to make a turn back toward the coast, but it won’t get as close as previously forecast.

The Jersey Shore will be were most if not all of the action from this storm will be. The main threat will be the coastal flooding from the significant wave action and heavy surf, especially during high tide on Sunday night and Monday morning. Tides are expected to between 3 and 5 feet above normal from Sandy Hook to Cape May. There will be some winds up to tropical storm force along with a little bit of rain according to Meteorologist Joe Cioffi.

Currently, Post-Tropical Storm Hermine remains offshore about 300 miles to the South-Southeast of the Eastern tip of Long Island, or about 325 miles to the East-Southeast of Ocean City, Maryland. The storm is now moving slowly to the East-Northeast at 6 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds have now increased again to 70 miles per hour with gusts up to 85 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure with Hermine has risen slightly to 999 millibars, or 29.50 inches of Hg (Mercury).

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Cape Charles Light, Virginia on the southern tip of the Delmarva Peninsula to just west of Watch Hill, Rhode Island including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch continues to be in effect from Watch Hill, Rhode Island eastward to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket. Know your watches and warnings. Coastal residents in these warned areas should be prepared for dangerous storm surge.

As mentioned earlier in this post, Hermine tracked further to the east so everything has shifted over somewhat in terms of the forecast track. Hermine is expected to move more to the north over the next 24 to 36 hours, and then turn towards the east again. However, Hermine is still expected to be several hundred miles off the coast of Eastern Long Island and Southern New England on Wednesday morning. Hermine’s strength during the next five days is expected to peak at 75 miles per hour within the next 36 to 48 hours.