Atlantic Continues to Be Busy As Statistical Peak of Season Approaches

The calendar has turned from August to September, and we are now at the start of Meteorological Fall in the Northern Hemisphere. The beginning of September also means the peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic.

As a matter of fact, the statistical peak of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season is less than ten days away (September 10th). Lots of things going on in the tropics with two active systems and another that just dissipated.

There is also another area of disturbed weather that is being watched in the Eastern Atlantic. To date, there have been 9 depressions, 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and one major hurricane in the Atlantic this season. Forecasts are still calling for the 2016 season to be the most active since 2012.

Let’s take a closer look around the tropics this morning:

Gulf of Mexico

The main attraction in this region right now is Tropical Storm Hermine, which was classified as a named system late Thursday morning, and has a chance to become a hurricane although the window is closing. Right now, the storm is located some 250 miles to the South-Southwest from Appalachicola, Florida, or approximately 275 miles to the West-Southwest of Tampa, Florida.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 60 miles per hour with gusts up to 70 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure is down to 996 millibars, or 29.42 inches of Hg. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Suwanee River to Mexico Beach while a Hurricane Watch is in effect from Anclote River to Suwannee River. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Anclote River to Suwannee River, West of Mexico Beach to Destin, and from Marineland to South Santee River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from North of South Santee River to Surf City. In addition, interests along the east coast from North Carolina on up should closely monitor developments with this system. The rest of the Gulf is mostly clear with exception to some clouds coming off Eastern Mexico into the Western Gulf. Water vapor imagery shows nothing really affecting Hermine in terms of dry air.

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Caribbean

Nothing much really happening here in this region this morning. There are some stray clouds over Western Cuba from the outer bands of Hermine, but nothing too serious. There are some clouds, showers, and storms approaching the Southern Windward Islands, but there is no mention about that from the NHC. No development is expected over the next 24 hours.

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Atlantic Ocean

Looking farther out into the Atlantic, there is a tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic located some 700 miles to the West of the Cabo Verde Islands. The wave is showing limited shower activity and it is in an area where there is a lot of dry air. The wave will be traversing this area for the next several days so no development is expected until early next week. No development is expected for the next 48 hours.

Meanwhile, in the Northeastern Atlantic, residents of the Azores are bracing for Hurricane Gaston, which was the season’s first major hurricane with 120 mile per hour winds, but has since weakened to a strong Category One storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale with 85 mile per hour winds. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Flores and Corvo in the Western Azores while a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Faial, Pico, Graciosa, San Jorge, and Terceira in the Central Azores. Additional weakening is expected with this system.

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Africa

This is the best time of year to watch the African continent for activity. Many of the Classic Cape Verde storms that develop during the course of every season first emerge as thunderstorm complexes in the Sub-Saharan or Sahel region of Africa. Right now, there is a pretty good line of showers and storms extending from Niger and Nigeria in the east to the eastern portion of Burkina Faso.