Disturbance Getting Its Act Together Along North Coast of Cuba

During the late afternoon and early evening on Saturday, I had indicated that Invest 99L was still struggling to rebound after the hit it took on Thursday. Upper level atmospheric dynamics were still hindering the storm as it continued to progress westward along the north coast of Cuba.

However, satellite imagery is starting to show a different trend with Invest 99L. The area of low pressure associated with the disturbance is beginning to get better organized and defined. Much of the clouds and convection remain to the north and east of the low, but it is definitely more significant that it was on Friday or earlier on Saturday.

Conditions will gradually become more favorable toward development as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, but right now Invest 99L is still battling the rugged and mountainous terrain of Cuba, and that is hindering further development. Right now, the National Hurricane Center has increased the odds of formation to 40 percent in the next 48 hours, and 50 percent over the next five days.

As of 8:00 PM EDT, there were reports coming out of Cuba of approximately 3 to 5 inches of rain that has fallen in towns and villages there. So, there is a ton of tropical moisture to work with. We could see a scenario similar to Hurricane Frederick in 1979, where the storm was torn apart by the rugged terrain of Cuba and Hispaniola only to rebound and become a Category Three Hurricane when it slammed into Mobile Bay.

The reason why I say that is because Invest 99L is headed toward the Gulf of Mexico where water temperatures can be much like bath water, especially the area called the Loop Current, which served as high octane fuel for the last major hurricanes to make landfall in the United States back in 2005: Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. There are still a lot of unknowns here, but there is a chance that this disturbance could blossom into a powerful storm.

Andrew was another storm that appeared to be given up for dead in the Western Atlantic before it showed tremendously resiliency and found an area where it rapidly intensified into the monster that slammed into Homestead in South Florida some 24 years ago this past week. The moral of the story here is that people along the Gulf Coast from Texas to the West Coast of Florida should continue to monitor this disturbance, and be ready for the possibility of a dangerous storm In the coming days.