Upper Level Winds Continue to be Hostile Towards Development

While Gaston appears to be re-energizing in the Central Atlantic, our more immediate threat, Invest 99L, continues to have difficulty recovering after losing significant punch on Thursday. Upper level conditions in the vicinity of the weak area of low pressure between Northern Cuba and Andros Island in the Bahamas continue to be hostile towards development.

In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity remain disorganized as much of the activity is confined to the south and east of the low. The disturbance continues to move to the west-northwest through the Florida Straits. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue for portions of Eastern and Central Cuba while the rain along with gusty winds is forecast to move into the Southern Bahamas, South Florida, and the Florida Keys.

Currently, chances of formation within the next 48 hours is low at 30 percent while probability of development within five days stands at 40 percent. Hurricane Hunter aircraft was scheduled to fly into the area on Saturday, but the mission was cancelled. Residents in portions of Florida as well as the Gulf Coast should continue to closely monitor the situation with this disturbance.

Activity is starting to percolate in other areas of the tropics with three more areas of disturbed weather throughout the basin, but none of them appear to be an immediate threat with a broad area of low pressure near Bermuda having a 30 percent chance of formation within 48 hours and 5 days.