Storm Re-Energizing in the Central Atlantic

The Atlantic tropics remain active on this late Saturday afternoon with several disturbances around the region including Invest 99L. However, none of them are expected to become storms any time in the near future. So, Tropical Storm Gaston remains the only show in town, and it is poised to become a hurricane again.

As of the 5:00 PM Advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, Tropical Storm Gaston was located 675 miles East-Southeast of Bermuda, and moving to the Northwest at a bit of a slow pace at 9 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds are 70 miles per hour with gusts up to 85 miles per hour.

Tropical storm force winds with Gaston extend some 150 miles from the center of circulation while the minimum central pressure is down to 993 millibars. Gaston is expected to strengthen more over the next 48 hours as upper level atmospheric conditions in its vicinity will continue to be conducive for development.

Not only is Gaston expected to become a hurricane again, but it is forecast to reach Category Two strength on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Some models including the GFS and the ECMWF project Gaston to be a major hurricane over the next three to five days. The ECMWF, or the European model indicates that Gaston could reach an intensity where the minimum central pressure drops to 945 millibars or 27.91 inches of Hg.

Gaston has been behaving pretty much as expected over the past couple days. The storm has been moving generally to the northwest, and has slowed down some as previously anticipated. This general motion is expected to continue until Sunday afternoon before it begins a general turn to the north and northeast in response to a break in the subtropical ridge, and increased influence from the westerlies.

So far this season, there have been three hurricanes of the seven named systems that have formed. However, there is yet to be a major hurricane. If the GFS and Euro intensity forecasts pan out, we could see our first major hurricane of 2016.