Joaquin Intensifies to Category Four, but Latest Forecast Track Has Storm Staying Offshore

During the day on Thursday, Hurricane Joaquin continued to intensify as it grinded its way through the Bahamas.  The storm had winds increase to 125 miles per hour during the 11:00 AM EDT Advisory and the barometer continued to drop to 942 millibars.  Then, several hours later, the winds increased to 130 miles per hour making it a Category Four Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale with its pressure dropping to 936 millibars.

The intensification trend continued through the mid to late afternoon period as well.  Even though winds remained steady at 130 miles per hour, the pressure fell another five millibars to 931 millibars, or 27.49 inches of Hg as of the 8:00 PM Advisory.  What this means is that over the last 27 hours or so, the pressure has dropped some 36 millibars, or 1.33 millibars per hour.  As hinted at last night, Joaquin is going through a rapid deepening, or rapid intensification phase.  

The latest discussion from the National Hurricane Center as of 5:00 PM EDT on Thursday has Joaquin continuing to strengthen until it peaks at 140 miles per hour over the next 48 hours.  By 72 hours, the storm should begin to weaken with winds slackening to 125 miles per hour.  This brings no solace to the residents of the Bahamas, which have taken a beating from this storm much like it did when Irene moved through the area four years and a month ago. Joaquin is a bit stronger storm with higher winds than Irene had at peak intensity (125 mph winds).  

Moving on to the current and future track of Joaquin, the storm is currently located some 25 miles to the East-Southeast of Clarence Town on Long Island in the Bahamas, or about 75 miles to the South of San Salvador.  The storm has been moving at a very slow pace.  Now down to 5 miles per hour after moving a little faster at 7 miles per hour.  General direction has been to the WSW today.  Now, Joaquin could be slowing down because it might be beginning to make a turn.  Keep in mind that there is a trough to the west of it moving through Florida and the Southeastern United States.  This trough will serve as a buffer between Joaquin and the Southeastern U.S.

Over the course of the day, the models, especially the GFS, or American model have begun to come in agreement with the European model, or the ECMWF on the future track of Joaquin.  On Wednesday, there was great disparity between the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, the Canadian model, and the ECMWF with the ECMWF maintaining its track to the east towards Bermuda, and then eventually out to sea.  Meanwhile, the other models were steadfast on a track that would have put Joaquin ashore over the Mid-Atlantic coast from the Outer Banks of North Carolina to the Tidewater region of Virginia.  In response to this, Virginia Governor, Terry McAuliffe and New Jersey Governor, Chris Christie put their states under a State of Emergency.

Now, the GFS and ECMWF are now seeing eye to eye with the track that the ECMWF has been consistently pointing to, a shift to the east away from land. The NHC guidance now shows Joaquin going even further offshore than it did during the 2:00 PM Advisory.  However, it is very important to note that although Joaquin’s track appears to be shifting east, the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast are not out of the woods yet, and even if the storm does stay away from land, the size and strength of it will produce an easterly fetch that will cause heavy surf, swells, rip currents, and possible coastal flooding as it passes by to the east.