Here Comes Hurricane Joaquin

All It Takes to Have a Bad Hurricane Season Is One Storm, and Joaquin Could be the One

Coming into this week, the Atlantic Hurricane Season was experiencing typical El Niño year type doldrums.  While the season hasn’t been as bad as the 1997 one was, which was the year of perhaps the most powerful El Nino episode ever, it has still produced a dearth of big storms, and especially no threat to the United States mainland.  To date, there have been 11 depressions, 10 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and one major hurricane in the Atlantic.

However, while the numbers are down, all it takes is for one storm to make it a season to forget for coastal residents along the United States shoreline from Texas to Maine.  In 1992, Hurricane Andrew proved that.  So, did the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, and the 1938 Long Island Express.  All of these storms came in average to below average seasons.  The latest storm to form in the Atlantic this season, Joaquin, could be one of those types of storms.  

Forming from an area of disturbed weather that persisted off the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern US coasts since September 15th, Joaquin emerged on Tuesday, and became the third hurricane of the Atlantic season on Wednesday.  Currently, the storm is in the Western Atlantic near the Bahamas.  According to the 8:00 PM EST Advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, Joaquin is centered some 95 miles east of San Salvador in the Bahamas, and moving to the Southwest at only 7 mph.  Maximum sustained winds have increased from 85 to 105 mph.

Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft flew into Joaquin earlier today, and found it much stronger.  Now a Category Two Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale with gusts up to 120 mph.  Minimum central pressure in the eye is now down to 954 millibars, or 28.17 inches of Hg.  However, here is something interesting to note:  Joaquin’s pressure has dropped from 967 millibars at 5:00 PM to 954 millibars at 8:00 PM.  A drop of 13 millibars in only 3 hours, which is very significant.  Could it be a sign of rapid deepening?  Will have to wait and see.  In the meantime though, Joaquin is expected to become a major hurricane with 115 mile per hour winds within the next 48 to 72 hours, and in light of recent developments, could be sooner than later.

Presently, Hurricane Watches and Warnings as well as Tropical Storm Warnings are up for much of the Bahamas.  The models are not in consensus yet.  While the European model, which performed very well with Hurricane Sandy back in 2012, is taking the storm out past Bermuda, and out to sea after 72 hours, the GFS, UKMET, Canadian, and several others have the storm heading toward a landfall along the Eastern Seaboard.  The European has not performed well lately, but up until now, has built up a fairly good record of performance in recent years including Sandy.  The GFS on the other hand, did well with Hurricane Irene.  Both Irene and Sandy were bad news for New Jersey by the way.

Looking back at Irene and Sandy, I would venture that Joaquin is starting to shape up a lot like Irene at this point in time.  If you recall back in late August 2011, Irene moved through the Bahamas as a major hurricane with 115 mph winds, and actually strengthened a bit more after moving through with 125 mph winds.  Then, dry air got entrained in the system, and like a runner struggling to get to the finish line, Irene limped her way up the United States east coast before making landfall first along the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and then making a second landfall in South Jersey.  Another similarity between Irene and Joaquin is the rainfall and flooding potential.

With the rainfall that has already occurred in not only New Jersey, but throughout much of the Eastern United States over the past few days, and with more on the way prior to Joaquin’s forecasted arrival late this coming weekend into early next week, the scenario could be quite similar to Irene, but not the same.  Back in August 2011, there was a tremendous amount of rain across the Garden State.  Historic numbers were being produced.  For instance, at GWC, where a new weather station had just been installed some two months earlier, there was over 15 inches of rain for the month and about two-thirds of that was produced prior to Irene.

Other areas across New Jersey had even more rain.  Some isolated spots had up to 25 inches of rain.  Keep in mind that New Jersey averages somewhere around 40 inches of rain per year.  So, the ground was teeming with moisture when Irene paid a visit.  Another possible scenario as far as flooding goes for Joaquin could be one similar to that prior to Hurricane Floyd.  Remember, much of the summer was quite a dry one in New Jersey.  From about June 20th until about a week ago, places such as GWC in South Plainfield, had only received between 4 and 4.5 inches of rain.  So, despite the recent rains, the ground is still fairly dry.

Prior to Floyd, there hadn’t been the tremendous rains that were experienced prior to Irene.  Although Hurricane Dennis spun off the Carolinas, and produced some rain for the Mid-Atlantic, Floyd came into places such as New Jersey with a lot less to work with as far as saturated ground.  Nevertheless, slow moving Floyd, which had weakened to a Tropical Storm by the time it had reached the Tri-State area, still dumped 11.67 inches of rain here at GWC, and still produced some flooding in the neighborhood.  Not like Irene did though.  Although Irene only brought 5.34 inches of rain to GWC in South Plainfield, it still ended up being the icing on the cake for the worst flooding in my neighborhood in the 44 years I’ve lived there.

Looking at the forecast track, the model consensus that the NHC is going with is calling for Joaquin to end up somewhere between the Outer Banks of North Carolina and the Tidewater region of Virginia by Sunday night.  New Jersey, which still lies in the NHC’s cone of uncertainty, could start feeling the effects from Joaquin during the day on Monday.  Bottom line, all residents along the Jersey Shore, and even inland should be close attention to the whereabouts of this developing storm.  All coastal residents along the U.S. shoreline from the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast should closely monitor this storm, and be prepared to take action if necessary.