Ana Becomes a Tropical Storm and Slowly Moves Toward Carolina Coast

First Atlantic Storm of 2015 Gains Tropical Characteristics and Begins Moving Toward Shore

Things are still very busy in the Tropical Atlantic, which is still yet to officially start the 2015 Hurricane Season for another three weeks. Ana, which formed as a subtropical storm late Thursday night, completed a metamorphosis into a complete warm core tropical system early Saturday morning. The first storm of the season in the Atlantic also began moving again after being stationary for much of the last 48 hours. Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect as the storm is within 12 to 24 hours of coming ashore, and tropical storm conditions are possible at that time.

According to the 5:00 PM Saturday Advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Ana is located some 65 miles to the South-Southeast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Maximum sustained winds are up to 60 miles per hour with gusts up to 70 miles per hour. Barometric pressure has remained steady at 1001 millibars, or 29.56 inches of Hg. The storm is moving to the Northwest at 3 miles per hour. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Carolina coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Lookout, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Edisto Beach, South Carolina to South of South Santee River, South Carolina.

Interests in North Carolina and Virginia as well as points further north in the Atlantic should pay some attention to this storm. Throughout much of this week, Tropical Storm Ana has been fairly well behaved. It formed pretty much as forecast, and has tracked just about as expected. The storm has defied some earlier expectations by converting into a tropical storm, but it has been prognosticated fairly well by forecasters. At its current pace, Ana should come ashore by this time on Sunday. The storm’s biggest threat will be heavy rains ranging from 3 to 5 inches. There will be some issues with surge along the immediate coast, which tides growing one to two feet above normal. Heavy surf and riptides will also be a factor.

The real concern will be after it moves inland and heads up the Mid-Atlantic. Another storm system that has been creating quite a bit of chaos in the Great Plains is pushing eastward, and is expected to be in the area of the storm by late Monday into Tuesday. If the two join forces, we could see some severe thunderstorms and more flooding for Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland. The low in the center of the country will most likely lose some power as it pushes eastward, and goes away from its moisture source in the Gulf of Mexico, but it could get re-energized a bit by Ana’s energy and moisture. Temperatures have been fairly summer like here at GWC in South Plainfield the past few days, but some early morning fog, some light rain and clouds for much of the day, kept temperatures down on Saturday.

We will have to see how all of this times out over the next several days. Monday and Tuesday could be fairly interesting in the Garden State.