Rare Early May Storm Possible Within Next 48 Hrs to 5 Days

The 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season is scheduled to start on June 1st, but Mother Nature has had other ideas over the past several days.  Since late last week and this past weekend, models had been suggesting that some sort of low pressure system whether it be subtropical, hybrid, or even tropical was going to form off the Southeastern United States coastline by this time.   

Living up to the computer model guidance expectations, the low has formed, and while it doesn’t have a closed circulation yet, it is very close to becoming the first named storm of 2015 in the Atlantic Basin.  On Thursday afternoon, Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew into the disturbance, which is now stationary off the coast of the Carolinas, and found 40 to 45 mile per hour winds mostly to the north and west of the center of circulation.

Odds of formation with this low have been gradually on the increase since Tuesday, and now are at a very high probability of 80 percent within the next 48 hours, and 80 percent within the next 5 days.  The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has been keeping a constant eye on it, and issuing Special Tropical Disturbance Statements periodically.  The NHC doesn’t issue advisories regularly yet until the start of the season on June 1st.   Interests along the Southeastern U.S. coast from North Carolina to about Northern Florida should monitor this situation.

Right now, environmental conditions are quite favorable for development.  The low is in the vicinity if not in the Gulf Stream so sea surface temperatures are warm enough and upper level winds have been light.  The winds have been so light that the storm has been barely moving.  A north to northwest drift is forecast over the next several days.  

This is not the first time that there has been a storm of some kind forming in the Atlantic prior to the official start of the season.  Recent examples include Tropical Storm Ana, which formed in April 2003.   In May 2007, Subtropical Storm Andrea developed in the Atlantic.  Finally, in Mid to late May 2012, Tropical Storm Alberto formed off  the coast of South Carolina.

Ironically, 2012 was the last very active season in the Atlantic Basin, and was capped off of course by Hurricane Sandy, which became the second hurricane ever to make landfall in New Jersey.  There has been a wide range of forecasts on how the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season will go, but if what is stirring up right now is any indication, we could be in for a long season.  

Let’s keep this in mind, it only takes one storm to make a season regardless of how much activity stirs up in the Atlantic.  Hurricane Andrew proved that in 1992.  Nevertheless, the entire coast of the United States from Maine to Texas, especially the hurricane belt of the Southeastern coastline is long overdue for a major hurricane.  The last Category 3 strength or higher storm to impact the U.S. coast was in 2005.