Fourth Named Storm of 2014 Atlantic Season Becomes First Not to Become a Hurricane

Earlier this week, the month of September got off to a good start in the Atlantic Tropics with the formation of the fourth named storm of the season.  After a very quiet August, which saw only two named storms and hurricanes form in Bertha and Cristobal, the Atlantic tried to show signs of life with a new named storms in the first few days of September.  Models had been hinting for a few weeks that something was going to develop in the Gulf of Mexico, and finally it did when a disturbance in the Northwestern Caribbean moved over the Yucatan into the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche.

While it didn’t have much room or time to develop due to its close proximity to land, this disturbance managed to become the fifth tropical depression in the Atlantic this season during the late afternoon on Labor Day.  Located some 255 miles to the Southeast of Tuxpan on the east coast of Mexico, the depression was still very weak with maximum sustained winds at only 30 miles per hour.  Within 9 hours though, Dolly was born as Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft found that it had flight level winds that were extrapolated to the surface to be above tropical storm force in the early morning of September 2nd.

Later in the morning on Tuesday, Dolly strengthened to its peak intensity of 50 mph sustained winds with gusts up to 65 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1005 millibars, or 29.68 inches of Hg.  Despite reforming to the south, and having a bit more real estate to work with, Dolly only managed to stay at this peak intensity for six hours before pressures began to rise again. Less than 10 hours later, the storm was beginning to come ashore near Tampico, Mexico.   By the morning of September 3rd, Dolly was downgraded to a depression, and three hours later, it had diminished to a remnant low.  Nevertheless, the former storm still packed a punch with heavy rains in Eastern Mexico that ranged from 5 to 10 inches with some localized rainfall amounts as high as 15 inches.

The heavy rains, caused by the orographic lifting of the tropical moisture from Dolly up the mountains of Eastern Mexico, triggered life threatening flash floods and mudslides across that region.  Dolly was the first named storm of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season not to become a hurricane.  The three previous storms:  Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal were at least a Category One storm with Arthur strengthening to Category Two.  With the formation of Dolly, there have been 5 depressions, 4 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and no major hurricanes so far in the Atlantic Basin this year.  The statistical peak of the season (September 10th) is five days away.  There hasn’t been a major hurricane in the Atlantic in nearly two years (September 11, 2012–Hurricane Michael), and it has been over 3,200 days since a landfalling major hurricane in the United States (Hurricane Wilma in October 2005).