Has 50 Percent Chance of Development as it Moves into Gulf

While the month of August and the entire 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season in general have been very quiet, things continue to try to stir around the Atlantic Basin on this Sunday morning. The most significant feature is in the Northwest Caribbean and crossing over the Yucatan.

This was a tropical wave in the Central Caribbean as of late last week, but it has migrated, and most importantly, become better organized. This disturbance, Invest 99L is now moving into a prime area for development. Sea surface temperatures are always quite warm in the Gulf and Northwest Caribbean, and environmental conditions are favorable for development.

On Sunday morning, the National Hurricane Center gave this area of disturbed weather a 50 percent chance of development over the next 48 hours to 5 days. Most forecast models indicate that this disturbance will track to the west across the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche before moving ashore into Southeastern Mexico.

Elsewhere in the tropics, there are a couple waves in the Atlantic, but there remains a good deal of dry and stable air that is hampering development. The remains of Hurricane Cristobal have come ashore in Iceland within the past 24 hours. We continue to approach the peak of the season, which is September 10th. Yet, there have been only 4 depressions, 3 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and no major hurricanes. There have only been two named storms in August and there hasn’t been a major hurricane at all in nearly two years.

Moreover, It has been almost 10 years since the last major hurricane made landfall in the United States. While storms such as Gustav, Ike, Irene, and Sandy were all memorable storms, none of them were Category Three strength or higher when they came ashore along the U.S. Coastline. The last major storm to hit the United States coastline was Hurricane Wilma in October 2005. Special thanks to Lew Fincher and Stan Blazyk of Hurricane Consulting for their coverage of the Atlantic this season.