While El Nino Hasn’t Formed Yet, Atlantic Still Quiet Thanks to Dry Air and Shear

Are we at the end of the cycle of active Atlantic Hurricane Seasons? Perhaps not, but the past several seasons seem to indicate that something is happening in the Atlantic. Recently in the news, there was a report about how global warming might have leveled off or paused thanks to changes in circulation in the Atlantic ocean as well as other southern oceans. The pause in global warming could be related, but while the El Nino has not formed yet, and isn’t expected to be strong, activity in the Atlantic the past two seasons including this year have been relatively quiet thanks to dry air and hostile upper level wind conditions in much of the Tropical Atlantic.

During the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season, there were a total of 14 depressions, 13 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and no major hurricanes. The first hurricane of 2013 didn’t come until the day after the statistical peak on September 10th. So far this season, there have only been 4 depressions, 3 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and no major hurricanes. So, we are looking at nearly two years since there had been a major hurricane in the Atlantic. In 2012, activity was much busier with 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes, but only 1 major hurricane (Michael). The year before, 2011, also was more active with 19 depressions, 18 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Tallying all of those numbers up, there have been 56 depressions, 53 named storms, 21 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

So, the ratio of hurricanes to named storms is less than half, and only 1/14th of all depressions that have formed over the past four seasons including this year, have become major hurricanes. The strongest storm during this period were Hurricanes Ophelia and Irene back in 2011. No hurricanes in the Atlantic have peaked higher than 125 mph winds. Returning back to the 2014 Atlantic season, the season began quietly with no storms for the entire month of June. However, toward the end of the first month of the season, a disturbance stirred up in the Western Atlantic. It would eventually become Arthur, which peaked as a Category Two Hurricane with 100 mph winds. The storm made landfall along the North Carolina coast near Shackleford Banks, between Cape Lookout and Buford during the late evening hours of July 3rd.

The storm did make the Fourth of July holiday a wet one for those along the Mid-Atlantic seaboard, and it almost put a damper on the fireworks displays in New York and New Jersey, but things just cleared out in time for those to be run without a hitch. I personally was able to see the Macy’s Fireworks display along the East River, and the Jersey City Fireworks, which began a little earlier. Tropical storm force conditions developed over Nantucket in Massachusetts, but the storm eventually pulled away and raced toward the Canadian Maritimes while losing its tropical characteristics on July 5th. See details on Arthur in another blog article. While the Eastern, Central, and Western Pacific showed an abundance of activity including several powerful typhoons and hurricanes during July and August, the Atlantic didn’t stir up much until the beginning of August when Bertha, the second named storm of the season, developed.

After TD #2 formed and faded during the days of July 21st to July 23rd, there was a lull in Atlantic activity for about a week to ten days. Then, on July 31st, Bertha began to take shape as a depression. It gradually strengthened to a minimal Category One Hurricane with peak winds of 80 mph during the late morning on August 4th. Bertha only lasted as a hurricane for about 18 hours before being downgraded to a tropical storm in the early morning of August 5th. The storm was no threat to land as it headed out to sea between Bermuda and the United States East Coast. Now, we have Cristobal, which appears to be following a similar path to Bertha. While this storm could surpass Bertha in terms of intensity, no major impacts are expected.

The general tracks of the three hurricanes that have formed in the Atlantic this year have been fairly similar with Arthur taking the westernmost track along the U.S. East Coast while Bertha and Cristobal tracking more to the east between the U.S. East Coast and the island of Bermuda. The storms have not really been that strong either. Arthur was the strongest to date with only 100 mph winds (Category Two) while Bertha was a Category One and Cristobal is only expected to peak at 90 mph winds.