Expected to Pass to Northwest of Bermuda on Wednesday; Heavy Surf and Rip Currents Main Threat to U.S. Coast

On Monday, Cristobal continued to gradually strengthen as the light to moderate shear that was affecting it on Sunday lessened, and the storm fed off the warmer waters around the Bahamas. By a little after 8:00 PM in the evening, the storm had strengthened and organized just enough to be classified as the third hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic season by the National Hurricane Center. Although it is still dumping a good deal of rain on the Turks and Caicos islands as well as the Southeastern Bahamas, the storm is moving away from the Bahamian island chain, and now setting its sights on Bermuda.

As of the most recent advisory on the storm, the 8:00 AM advisory from the NHC, Cristobal was located some 590 miles to the Southwest of Bermuda, and moving to the North at 12 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds are minimal hurricane force at 75 miles per hour with gusts up to 90 mph. Minimum central pressure with the storm is down to 988 millibars, or 29.18 inches of Hg. Since this time yesterday, the pressure has dropped some 6 millibars. Currently, a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda. Looking at the most recent discussion (5:00 AM Tuesday morning) from the NHC, the intensity forecast indicates more strengthening is possible and Cristobal could be a strong Category One Hurricane with 90 mph winds within 48 hours. Taking a peek at the satellite imagery of the storm, you might think that this storm is more of an extratropical system with the bulk of its clouds and convection to the east of the center.

Cristobal is still feeling the effects of a mid-latitude trough to the north of it, which is why the system has more of a baroclinic feel to it. Also feeling the pinch from a subtropical ridge to the east and high pressure over the Southeast United States, the storm will continue to push northward over the next 36 hours or so. After that, Cristobal will start feeling the effects of another trough pushing into the Eastern United States and begin to head out to sea. Despite not being a threat for landfall along the United States East Coast, the storm is still expected to create long period swells stretching from Florida to New York. Today that threat will be most likely from Central Florida to the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Then, as the week progresses and the storm continues northward, the threat of heavy surf and rip currents will push northward into the Mid-Atlantic.

With Cristobal becoming a hurricane, the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season scorecard now reads: 4 Tropical Depressions, 3 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 0 major hurricanes. We are still some two weeks away from the statistical peak of the Atlantic season (September 10th). However, activity in August has been below normal to date, and the season overall is running below average and well under the pace of recent seasons. Dry air and hostile upper level conditions throughout much of the Atlantic have been mostly the cause.