Good afternoon everyone. Well, as promised, I’ve completed the book, Killer ‘Cane by Robert Mykle earlier this week, and I plan to have a book review about it soon. I also intend to have articles on Hurricane Felix, Hurricane Henriette, and the interesting topic of Paleotempestology as well as commemorative articles on Hurricane Agnes, Hurricane Audrey, Hurricane Beulah, and Hurricane Iniki. So, continue to keep your eyes peeled. I’ve been busy getting accustomed to my new job so I’m a bit behind right now. With that out of the way, it’s time to move on to the latest topic in the tropics, Subtropical Storm Gabrielle.

Recall the past couple weeks or so, we had been dealing with a couple tropical disturbances in the Western Atlantic off the southeast coast. One disturbance formed several hundred miles off the North Florida coast, and after that disturbance faded another one formed nearby, and brought drenching torrential rains to the Georgia, South Carolina coast including Savannah, Hilton Head, Tybee Island, and St. Simon’s Island. Then, the disturbance, which had been part of an old frontal boundary began to move eastward into the Atlantic. Earlier in the week, around Labor Day, there were indications that the disturbance was not only going to develop into a storm eventually, but also head back toward the coast. Analysis suggested that high pressure was going to build in further north in the Atlantic, and block the only escape route out.

Over the past couple days, this disturbance became better organized, and on Friday night, strengthened into a Subtropical Storm that was given the name Gabrielle, the seventh named storm of 2007. As of the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, the subtropical system has maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour, with gusts reported to be as high as 70 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure has dropped slightly to 1009 millibars (29.80 inches of Hg) from 1011 millibars (29.87 inches of Hg), and the storm is located some 240 miles Southeast of Cape Lookout, North Carolina. Tropical storm force winds extend some 115 miles from the center as the system is quite small in size.

The forecast track for Gabrielle has the storm approaching the Outer Banks region of North Carolina over the next couple days, and the turning back out to sea by Tuesday morning. The latest discussion from the NHC indicates that there will be some more strengthening with the system prior to nearing the coastline. Winds could get as high as 65 miles per hour, but not much higher since there is not a lot of convection with this system presently, and while upper level conditions could become more favorable, there is a very small window for development. Currently there are watches and warnings out for the Mid-Atlantic Coast. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the North Carolina shoreline from Surf City to the North Carolina/Virginia border, and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect from Surf City southward to Cape Fear, and north of the Virginia/North Carolina border to Cape Charles Light.

Earlier in the week, forecasters indicated that a La Niña may be forming in the Atlantic, and that could mean a very busy final three months of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The reason for that possibility is because when a La Niña forms, cooler than normal sea surface temperatures develop in the Pacific, which means fewer tropical systems in regions such as the Eastern Pacific. Consequently, there is less turbulence and wind shear entering the Atlantic Basin to inhibit fledgling disturbances, which means there is a greater chance for weaker storms to become better organized, and strengthen. In recent years, October and November have been more active than usual. Only 1997, 2002, and 2006 were execptions.