Severe Weather Outlook–October 7, 2013

Storm System Responsible for Historic Blizzard and Tornadoes in Plains and Midwest Heads into Eastern U.S.

As indicated in the last Severe Weather Outlook several days ago, some heavy weather is coming this way for Monday afternoon. A powerful cold front associated with a storm system that caused remarkable weather in the Great Plains and Midwest the past several days, is moving into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, and it is poised to create quite a stir here in New Jersey.

A few hours ago, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, put the entire Garden State as well as other portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast under a Tornado Watch until 5:00 PM EDT. This storm system is moving into a moist and somewhat unstable air mass over our region. Behind the front, temperatures are much cooler, and more fall like with lower humidity.

The latest radar imagery already indicates showers and storms pushing into Eastern Pennsylvania. So, this heavy weather is just a few hours away. Skies have been variable with a mixture of clouds and sunshine over GWC in South Plainfield with the winds picking up in intensity. After a cloudy day on Sunday that kept temperatures down in the upper 60s, temperatures have already moved up into the low to mid 70s this early afternoon (12:27 PM EDT). Dew point values are also already in the upper 60s to low 70s.

The most significant threat from this line of storms is damaging winds. Anywhere along the front, storms could produce wind gusts as high as 75 miles per hour with the possibility of tornadoes. This storm system has had a very significant history. It was responsible for producing up to 50 inches of snow in portions of the Northern Plains including South Dakota over the weekend while producing only the second October EF4 tornado in Nebraska history on Friday.

Sunday morning, the SPC indicated the likelihood of thunderstorms, but a low probability of severe weather. By Sunday afternoon, the SPC had modified its outlook to include a slight risk for severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic including much of New Jersey. Then, early Monday morning, a Tornado Watch had been issued. Earlier discussions from the SPC had indicated there would be plenty of warmth and moisture for the cold front to tap into, but there wasn’t any indications of a lot of instability and buoyancy.

The Tornado Watch from the SPC indicates that the buoyancy is still marginal, but there is still plenty of moisture, and even a good deal of shear to work with. The potential for severe weather is expected to increase during the afternoon, and with the sun coming out just a little while ago, there is added energy. The Tornado Watch covers an area just west of Washington D.C., up through Central Pennsylvania, and into Central New York, and then stretches eastward as far as the coastal waters of New Jersey, Delaware, New York City, and up to Albany, New York.

Continue to monitor weather reports from your local news outlets, the National Weather Service, and have a NOAA Weather Radio handy for any updates. If you see threatening weather, get indoors, and find an interior room such as a closest or one with no windows, and has another wall between you and the outside.