Isolated to Scattered Storms Across Jersey Today; More Significant Storm Coming Early Next Week

It is another warm and muggy day for this time of year in South Plainfield. As a matter of fact, high temperatures all across the Garden State are already in the low to mid 80s on this Friday afternoon. Current temperature at GWC is up to 83 degrees with a dew point of 68 for a heat index of 86 degrees. The weather outside feels much like it did during the Labor Day Weekend. A warm and muggy day consistent with the month of August rather than the beginning of October.

As mentioned previously in a blog post earlier this week, we are dealing with a frontal system that is presently lifting to the north over our region. It is expected to remain in place through the weekend. Isolated and scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from Newark to Ridgewood to South Plainfield and Belmar. Probabilities of precipitation are anywhere between 30 and 40 percent. Looking at the current radar, there are showers and storms in Eastern Pennsylvania, but they appear to be fading at the moment.

The more significant weather is situated far off to the south and west of our area, and will not affect us for at least another several days, but when it does, it could be a problem. First, there is Tropical Storm Karen, which has continued weakening during the course of Friday morning into early Friday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds with this system have decreased to 50 miles per hour while the minimum central pressure has risen to 1003 millibars or 29.62 inches. The satellite imagery from the Gulf of Mexico shows a very unhealthy and ragged storm that is being ravaged by westerly shear and dry air.

However, there is still a possibility that the shear will let up, and allow Karen to recoup her recent losses prior to making landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Another player in our weather for early next week is a major storm system bringing significant snows to the Rockies and Northern Plains while hitting the Midwest with a severe weather outbreak. Probability for tornadoes in places like Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, and Wisconsin is fairly high on Friday afternoon and evening. What is left of Karen is expected to join forces with this storm system as it pushes across the eastern half of the U.S. later this weekend.

Meanwhile, temperatures are expected to remain in the mid to upper 70s through Monday as the combined storm system approaches from the south and west. The National Weather Service in New York has already issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook that discusses the possibility of this storm system bringing heavy rains to our region. The National Weather Service Office in Mount Holly has not issued such an outlook, but has posted some briefings online and in social media regarding the possibility of heavy rainfall on Monday and Tuesday. Rainfall amounts possible range between 1.5 and 2.5 inches with isolated areas receiving as much as 4 inches.

Stay tuned to your local weather outlets, news, and National Weather Service for further updates on this still developing situation.