09.21.13

GWC Severe Weather Outlook for Saturday Evening

Posted in GWC News, GWC Severe Weather Report at 5:51 pm by gmachos

Over the past couple days, conditions have been a bit warmer than normal for this time of year, and a tad muggy as well.  On Friday, the high temperature reached 78 degrees while the dew point peaked in the low 60s before dropping into the upper 40s.  On Saturday morning and early afternoon, those conditions continued with a bit of cloudiness and fog early on too boot.  However, there is a change on the way. 

A large and powerful cold front extending from Canada through the Eastern Great Lakes down into the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys is pushing eastward, and is expected to bring some heavy rain for a time on Saturday night.  The latest NWS forecast indicates anywhere from a half an inch to three quarters of an inch of rainfall for Northwestern Middlesex County as well as the rest of Central Jersey.  Further to the north and west in Northeastern Pennsylvania, there is a chance of up to two inches of rain there.

While the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma does concede that there is a risk of some thunderstorms, it adds that the possibility of severe weather is minimal.  The reason for that is because there is just not enough instability in the atmosphere to fuel the development of strong to severe thunderstorms.  There is a risk of cool air induced waterspouts over the Eastern Great Lakes according to an outlook given by the NWS office in Pittsburgh.  So, look for some heavy rain with some gusty winds as well as a few rumbles of thunder for a time this evening.

The timing of the storminess has varied during the day today.  This morning, there were indications on some local television outlets that the weather wouldn’t come through until sometime this evening between 8 PM and midnight.  Models indicated that it was going to come through later than that.  However, as of 7:00 AM this morning, the front was already moving into Western Pennsylvania. 

Nevertheless, the result of this approaching front will be a significant change just in time for the first day of fall.  The autumnal equinox is set to arrive at 4:00 PM on Sunday, and temperatures and humidity levels will be much cooler and drier by that time.  High temperature forecasted for Sunday is expected to be in the low 70s with some lingering showers.  Then, highs will only be in the upper 60s on Monday and Tuesday with clear and sunny skies.

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