Isolated Strong To Severe Storms Possible; Widespread Outbreak Not Likely

Earlier this week, I had reported on the increased possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms starting on Monday night, and lasting into Wednesday. So far, there hasn’t been much of a severe threat this week. There were cloudy skies on Monday, and some morning rain on Tuesday that brought a tenth of an inch to South Plainfield, but nothing like the heavy rain that was originally forecast.

Things could change tomorrow though as as a disturbance will combine with an approaching cold front to bring some rain and isolated strong to severe storms. The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center indicates that areas from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic could see isolated clusters of thunderstorms develop with damaging winds and heavy rain. As of this time though, no widespread severe weather is expected. Indications are that there will not be enough wind shear, and instability to produce a larger severe outbreak.

Looking at the current weather map of the United States, a large dome of high pressure continues to sit over the middle of the country, and that is providing hot conditions from South Texas to Northern Wisconsin, South Dakota, and Southeastern Montana. Temperatures throughout this region have been running from the low 90s to above 100 degrees. Factor in the dew points that have been running between the mid 60s and mid 70s, and you have oppressive conditions with heat index values topping out well over 100 degrees. Right now (10:28 PM EDT), heat index values are still running between the mid 80s to mid 90s throughout much of the Midwest and Great Plains.

With the strong dome of high pressure entrenched in the country’s mid-section, you have what forecasters call a ring of fire pattern running around the high. On the northern periphery of the high, places such as Wisconsin and the Lower Peninsula of Michigan are under Severe Weather watches thanks to thunderstorms that have fired up in those portions of the U.S. The SPC has put those areas under a slight risk for severe storms tonight. The ring of fire pattern that has developed has in the past been a breeding ground for of derechos or powerful line of storms.

Temperatures are expected to rise into the mid to upper 80s on both Wednesday and Thursday across New Jersey. Right now, the local forecast from the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly, New Jersey is calling for a 30 percent chance of storms on Wednesday and Wednesday night with a 20 percent chance on Thursday.