Sixth Named Storm of 2013 Atlantic Season Develops in Bay of Campeche Region of Gulf

The tropics are trying to fire up again in the Atlantic. A disturbance that developed in the Northwestern Caribbean late last week, moved through the Yucatan, and gradually became better organized. The National Hurricane Center with its Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the region, began to notice the development, and reclassified the disturbance as Tropical Depression Six late Sunday afternoon, and a few hours later, Fernand emerged.

Located in the Bay of Campeche region of the Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Storm Fernand is only several miles off the coast of Veracruz, or approximately 140 miles to the Southeast of Tuxpan. Maximum sustained winds are currently 50 miles per hour with gusts in excess of 60 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure in Fernand is at 1001 millibars, or 29.56 inches of Hg. Tropical storm winds extend some 35 miles from the center of circulation. Wind gusts in Veracruz Harbor topped out at 72 miles per hour as of the most recent report. Rain will eventually be the key factor with this storm. Rainfall amounts across Mexican provinces in the storm’s immediate path are expected to range between 4 and 8 inches with isolated amounts of up to 12 inches.

The storm is moving slowly to the West at 9 miles per hour. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Gulf Coast of Mexico from Veracruz northward to Barra de Natula. The latest forecast discussion from the NHC indicates that conditions are still favorable in the vicinity of the storm for further strengthening before it makes landfall. The recent reports from the area around Veracruz, and infared satellite imagery showing a burst of convection provided the basis for the NHC’s upgrade in the storm’s strength to 50 mile per hour winds. Once the storm comes ashore though, it will gradually wind down after being cut off from its energy source of warm ocean water. The forecast calls for Fernand to weaken to a minimal tropical storm in 12 hours, and dissipate within 24 hours.

With the formation of Fernand, there have now been six depressions and six named storms in the Atlantic. However, none of them have yet to become hurricanes. So far, only two named storms have formed during the month of August. Eight named storms developed during the month of August last year, and climatologically speaking, the month is usually more active than what we’ve seen so far this season. Things could be changing though. The African pipeline continues to produce storms moving into the Atlantic. As a matter of fact, a wave just moved off the West African coast, and has a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next several days. Behind the wave, is another potent thunderstorm complex in West Africa.