09.14.12

It’s All Downhill From Here…But

Posted in Tracking the Tropics at 3:16 pm by gmachos

Passing The Statistical Peak Of The Season In The Atlantic

It is the beginning of the end. We have now passed the halfway point and statistical peak of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season (September 10th). While it has been a busy one with 14 depressions, 14 named storms, and 7 hurricanes, there has only been one major hurricane (Michael) and a strong Category Two storm (Gordon). On top of that, there have only been a few storms to impact the United States including Beryl (near Jacksonville, Florida), Debby, and of course, Isaac (Louisiana and Mississippi).

Although we have gotten over the hump this season, there is still a good deal to go yet, and we can’t afford to drop our guard, especially along the coast from Maine to Texas. September is climatologically the busiest month and the peak of the Cape Verde Season, where powerful storms form off of Africa. There is still two weeks to go in the month. Historically, a couple big storms have developed during this time that affected the Northeast and New England: The Long Island Express of 1938 and Hurricane Gloria from September 1985.

Things begin to ramp down more in earnest during the month of October, but a couple big storms have developed in the past during this month as well including Hurricane Hazel (1954) and Hurricane Opal (1995). There is also a second statistical peak in October toward the middle of the month. Common areas of development are usually in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Upper level wind patterns make it difficult for Cape Verde storms to develop. Moving into November, activity historically continues to wind down as the Northern Hemisphere heads toward winter. However, storms have developed during this month including Hurricane Kate (1985), Hurricane Gordon (1994), and Hurricane Lenny (1999).

Although the season ends on November 30th, storms have also developed during the month of December. As a matter of fact, during the historic season of 2005, there were storms in December of that year, and they lasted into January of 2006.

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