Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan Bears Watching

Posted in Commentary, Hurricane Intensit, Hurricane Records, Model Forecasts, Storm Preparation, Storm Safety, Storm Track, Tracking the Tropi at 11:06 am by gmachos

Has 50 Percent Chance of Development as it Moves into Gulf

While the month of August and the entire 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season in general have been very quiet, things continue to try to stir around the Atlantic Basin on this Sunday morning. The most significant feature is in the Northwest Caribbean and crossing over the Yucatan.

This was a tropical wave in the Central Caribbean as of late last week, but it has migrated, and most importantly, become better organized. This disturbance, Invest 99L is now moving into a prime area for development. Sea surface temperatures are always quite warm in the Gulf and Northwest Caribbean, and environmental conditions are favorable for development.

On Sunday morning, the National Hurricane Center gave this area of disturbed weather a 50 percent chance of development over the next 48 hours to 5 days. Most forecast models indicate that this disturbance will track to the west across the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche before moving ashore into Southeastern Mexico.

Elsewhere in the tropics, there are a couple waves in the Atlantic, but there remains a good deal of dry and stable air that is hampering development. The remains of Hurricane Cristobal have come ashore in Iceland within the past 24 hours. We continue to approach the peak of the season, which is September 10th. Yet, there have been only 4 depressions, 3 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and no major hurricanes. There have only been two named storms in August and there hasn’t been a major hurricane at all in nearly two years.

Moreover, It has been almost 10 years since the last major hurricane made landfall in the United States. While storms such as Gustav, Ike, Irene, and Sandy were all memorable storms, none of them were Category Three strength or higher when they came ashore along the U.S. Coastline. The last major storm to hit the United States coastline was Hurricane Wilma in October 2005. Special thanks to Lew Fincher and Stan Blazyk of Hurricane Consulting for their coverage of the Atlantic this season.


Drowning Death at Sandy Hook a South Plainfield Resident

Posted in GWC News, Storm Safety, Storm Track, Tracking the Tropi at 1:27 pm by gmachos

Dangerous Surf Takes Life of 17 Year Old from Hometown of GWC and Hurricaneville

On Thursday, GWC and Hurricaneville reported on the dangerous surf that had been affecting both the East and West coasts of the United States. Hurricane Marie was responsible for historic wave heights off Southern California while Hurricane Cristobal, which strengthened a bit on Thursday, generated dangerous surf and rip currents along the East Coast from Florida to New England. As of Thursday morning, the tremendous wave action from these two storms had combined to claim the lives of three people.

One of those lives was of a South Plainfield resident, 17 year old, Sarmad Rizvi, who was a week away from beginning his senior year at South Plainfield High School. According to an article on MyCentralJersey.com, Rizvi, a wrestler in the powerhouse wrestling program at SPHS, was initially knocked down by a wave, and then taken under by a powerful rip current, all courtesy of Hurricane Cristobal, which was swirling hundreds of miles offshore northwest of Bermuda at the time on Tuesday.

Rizvi, was a member of the South Plainfield HS wrestling team that was 22-6 overall last year. He saw limited action and was 1-0. His death was the first by drowning at Sandy Hook this year. Another death attributed to Hurricane Cristobal was down in Ocean City, Maryland where an 18 year old young man from Virginia drowned in the inlet there. Up and down the East Coast, there have also been numerous rescues by lifeguards on duty coming to the assistance of those testing the bounds of mother natures extremes. Over in Southern California beaches, at least 130 rescues were done by lifeguards as of Thursday morning thanks to 25 foot waves created by what was once Category Five Hurricane Marie.

Cristobal has been responsible for five other deaths including one in the Turks and Caicos Islands in the Southeastern Bahamas, two in the Dominican Republic, and two in Haiti. The storm is now post-tropical in the Northern Atlantic to the Southeast of Newfoundland in the Canadian Maritimes. Post-tropical storm Cristobal still has winds of 85 miles per hour, and a minimum central pressure of 970 millibars, or 28.64 inches of Hg (Mercury). The National Weather Service office in Mount Holly indicates that there is still a moderate risk of rip currents along the Jersey Shore and Delaware beaches even though what is left of Cristobal is pulling away.

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service office in Upton, New York has issued a Special Rip Current Statement indicating that the risk of rip currents is still high with surf heights still around 4 feet along Atlantic facing beaches on Long Island. Remember, if you are caught in a rip current, don’t panic and swim parallel to the shore. Better yet, play it safe and stay out of the water until conditions ease up completely.

GWC Weather Footage–August 28, 2014–Trip to Long Beach Island

Posted in GWC News, YouTube Videos at 8:53 am by gmachos

Here is footage from a trip taken to Long Beach Island on the final Thursday of August 2014. During this trip, the weather was nice. Some fair weather cumulus, but mostly sun and blue sky. Wave action in Barnegat Inlet wasn’t as severe as it was on Wednesday as Hurricane Cristobal pulled away.

GWC Time Lapse–August 28, 2014–Fair Weather Cumulus at Barnegat Light

Posted in GWC News, GWC Time Lapse, YouTube Videos at 2:52 am by gmachos

Here is a time lapse from a little over 5 minutes of footage of fair weather cumulus during a trip Barnegat Light on Long Beach Island, New Jersey on the last Thursday in August 2014. It was a nice day with blue skies, plenty of sun, and comfortable temperatures along the Jersey Shore. I used a little bit of a vignette effect with this video.

GWC Slideshow–August 28, 2014–Trip to Long Beach Island

Posted in GWC News, GWC Slideshows, YouTube Videos at 2:12 am by gmachos

Here is a slideshow from photos taken during a trip to Long Beach Island on the last Thursday in August 2014. After a front came through during the early morning, and temperatures dropped off a bit to the low 80s after temperatures rose to around 90 across much of the Garden State on Wednesday.


Cristobal Generating Rough Surf and Rip Currents Along Jersey Shore

Posted in GWC News, Storm Preparation, Storm Safety, Storm Track, Tracking the Tropi at 12:12 pm by gmachos

Long Period Swells from Hurricane in Atlantic Causing Dangerous Surf Conditions at Jersey Beaches

With the approach of the Labor Day Holiday Weekend, many residents from New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania are headed to the Jersey Shore for one last fling before summer ends.  Hurricane Cristobal, an unwanted guest at Garden State beaches, is still making his presence felt.  No direct threat to land, the Category One storm is still producing dangerous effects.

Located some several hundred miles from Halifax, Nova Scotia in the Canadian Maritimes, Cristobal is still a minimal hurricane with 75 mph winds.  The storm formed in the Eastern Caribbean last week, and gradually headed northward where it dumped a good deal of rain in the Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos islands.  Since then, Cristobal continued on a northward, and then a north-northeastward track between Bermuda and the East Coast of the United States.

With maximum sustained winds that have ranged between 75 and 80 miles per hour, Hurricane Cristobal has been able to generate a good deal of wave action and dangerous surf conditions all along the United States Eastern Seaboard from Florida into New England.  New Jersey began feeling the effects of the long period swells on Wednesday when waves measuring 3 to 5 feet above normal came crashing ashore.  The heavy surf and dangerous rip currents have resulted in advisories being issued by the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly for Jersey beaches.

Still many have gone into the water, and for some, it has come with a price.  On Wednesday, the Asbury Park Press reported that a 17 year old boy drowned in Sandy Hook after being overwhelmed by the treacherous waters.  Further south in Ocean City, Maryland, another person died after being caught up in the dangerous surf.  The long period swells being generated by Hurricane Cristobal are expected to continue for another 24 hours or so.  Wave heights are expected to be anywhere from 3 to 7 feet along the Jersey Shore depending upon, which weather service you follow.

Meanwhile, along ocean facing beaches in Long Island, the surf conditions are expected to be a bit worse.  Wave heights are forecast to be between 5 to 8 feet with some locally being as high as 8 to 10 feet.  Further north near Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket, seas could get as high as 12 feet.  So, if you don’t have to be in the water, don’t go in.  On the west coast in Southern California, there have been 130 rescues made by lifeguards there in response to the historic waves and surf created by what’s left of Hurricane Marie in the Eastern Pacific.  If you are in the water, and get caught in a rip current, don’t panic and swim parallel to the shore, the rip current will eventually let up.

GWC and Hurricaneville plan to head to Long Beach Island on Thursday to take in the wave action and surf there.  Pictures and video from the visit will be posted later.

GWC Slideshow–August 27, 2014–Heavy Surf from Cristobal Along Jersey Shore

Posted in GWC News, GWC Slideshows, YouTube Videos at 11:19 am by gmachos

Here is a slideshow from photos take of the heavy surf generated by Hurricane Cristobal along the Jersey Shore at Barnegat Beach on the last Wednesday of August 2014. While Cristobal is churning in the Western Atlantic far from the U.S. East Coast, it is creating long period swells that have spawned dangerous surf conditions from Florida all the way up into New England.

Historic Surf Along Southern California Coast as Marie Fades

Posted in Eastern Pacific, Storm Safety, Storm Track at 10:11 am by gmachos

Once Category Five Hurricane Weakens To Tropical Storm; Still Creating Dangerous Surf and Rip Currents in Southern California

In another twist to what has been a very busy Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season, what was a powerful hurricane, is weakening in cooler waters. Tropical Storm Marie, which was once a Category Five Hurricane, the first in the EPAC since 2010, has weakened to minimal tropical storm strength, and is expected to become post-tropical later on Thursday. However, the ripple effects to the ocean from the storm’s power in previous days, is generating dangerous surf conditions along the Southern California coast.

Thanks in part to winds that were once at 160 miles per hour, and a minimum central pressure that dropped to an estimated pressure of 918 millibars, or 27.11 inches of Hg, Marie has been able to churn up the seas to historic levels. Residents and experts living in Southern California have not seen surf conditions like this in 25 years.

With waves as high as 25 feet and powerful rip currents, the surf is very dangerous, but it is not keeping people out of the water. Surfers, who are looking to push the boundaries against mother nature, are getting out in these treacherous waters in droves. As a result, some 130 rescues had to be conducted.

Video footage from people at the beach, and drones flying along the coast have shown the dramatic waves from Marie pushing ashore south of Los Angeles in Malibu Pier and Surfrider Beach nearby. Surf has pounded the coast from Long Beach to Malibu causing damage to homes there as well as the Malibu Pier. NBC News reports that the powerful waves proved deadly when a surfer was killed along Surfrider Beach on Tuesday morning.

Marie became the most powerful storm of the EPAC season, which has had 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, 3 Category Four Hurricanes, and one Category Five system. Marie is currently located some 820 miles to the West-Southwest of Punta Eugenia in Baja California, Mexico and dissipating with winds down to 50 miles per hour.

Warm, Humid Weather Returning For Labor Day Weekend

Posted in GWC News at 9:26 am by gmachos

Warmest Weather of Month Expected With Storms on Sunday

The Summer of 2014 has been a pleasant summer here in the Garden State. The three month period of June through August of this year has been the coolest summer period in the past four years according to data kept by Greg’s Weather Center. In South Plainfield, the high temperatures for the months of June and July of 2014 were three to four degrees lower than last year, and 6 to 9 degrees below monthly highs for the same months two years ago.

On top of that, the average temperatures for the same three month period this year is running some 4 to 6 degrees below average temps for the same period three years ago. August 2014 has performed a bit better than last year. Before yesterday, the high temperature for the month was just under 90 degrees at 89 in South Plainfield, which occurred on August 5th. Last year’s peak temperature for the month of August was 88 degrees, and that didn’t occur until Labor Day Weekend. On Wednesday though, the warm, humid weather that had eluded New Jersey for much of the summer, made a rare appearance.

At the GWC Weather Station, the high temperature reached just over 90 degrees (90.3) while the dew point peaked at 70 degrees for a heat index of 97 degrees. It was the warmest day of the month here in Tigertown, and it could be a taste of things to come. After nice weather returns later on Thursday, and continues into Friday and Saturday, the heat and humidity will return on Sunday, and linger into the middle of next week. Over the next three days, high temperatures are forecast to be in the low 80s, but on Sunday, the National Weather Service Office in Mount Holly is calling for a high of 88 with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms in the evening.

Labor Day is also expected to be warm and humid with the high again climbing to 88, and a chance of thunderstorms. Meanwhile, The Weather Channel is calling for a high of 91 on Sunday with a 50 percent chance of storms. TWC is also indicating temperatures will be in the upper 80s on Monday as well before climbing back into the low 90s on Tuesday with a 50 percent chance of storms. The return of the warm and humid weather had been on the horizon. A dome of high pressure bubbled up in the mid-section of the country within the past week to 10 days, and has pushed eastward. The high is serving as a buffer zone though from Hurricane Cristobal, which is churning between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda.

GWC Weather Footage–August 27, 2014–Hurricane Cristobal Stirs Up Surf Along Jersey Shore

Posted in GWC News, GWC Video Report, Hurricaneville Vid, Storm Footage, Tracking the Tropi, YouTube Videos at 8:25 am by gmachos

Here is weather footage of heavy surf getting stirred up along the Jersey Shore courtesy of Hurricane Cristobal on the final Wednesday of August 2014. Cristobal, the third named storm and hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season, has only been a Category One Hurricane to date with peak winds of 80 mph, but it churned up the surf with wave heights ranging between 3 to 6 feet above normal. The storm stayed away from the U.S. East Coast while staying west of Bermuda. It did dump a good deal of rain on the Turks and Caicos islands and the Southeastern Bahamas earlier in the week.

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