09.20.12

GWC Weather Footage–Rainbow Over South Plainfield–September 20, 2012

Posted in GWC News, YouTube Videos at 7:25 pm by gmachos

Here is footage of a rainbow that developed over South Plainfield, New Jersey in late September 2012. The rainbow came after a sun shower developed in the late afternoon.

GWC Storm Footage–September 18, 2012–East Coast Storm

Posted in GWC News, Storm Footage, YouTube Videos at 4:43 pm by gmachos

Here is video footage of the effects of the East Coast Storm of mid-September 2012 in Northern Middlesex County, New Jersey. The storm was a vast system that extended from Maine to Florida, and brought anywhere from one to three inches of rain in most places with some areas getting over 7 inches. The storm also caused a lot of damage with wind as gusts peaked to 70 miles per hour, especially in high altitudes. Here in South Plainfield, the storm dumped 1.17 inches of rain, and brought wind gusts of 42 miles per hour as the barometer dropped to 29.57 inches of Hg, or 1001 millibars.

GWC Slideshow–East Coast Storm–September 18, 2012

Posted in GWC News, YouTube Videos, GWC Slideshows at 12:00 pm by gmachos

Here is a slideshow from pictures and video captures taken of the weather produced by the East Coast Storm in mid-September 2012. This storm covered the entire eastern third of the United States from Maine down to Florida, and brought rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches in most places with some areas getting over 7 inches of rain. Winds gusted up to 70 miles per hour, especially in higher elevations in New York and New England. Here in South Plainfield, the storm brought 1.17 inches of rain and winds up to 42 miles per hour. The barometer fell to 29.57 inches of Hg, or 1001 millibars.

09.17.12

Significant Storm To Sock Eastern U.S. On Tuesday

Posted in GWC News at 4:12 pm by gmachos

Storm Will Bring Rain, Wind, and Possible Severe Thunderstorms To Jersey

The nice weather across the Garden State continued through the weekend and into the start of the new week.  Despite the frontal passage that occurred on Friday night and early Saturday morning, no rain fell across Northwestern Middlesex County as the region continued to enjoy a nice dry spell.  So far this September, there has only been five days of measurable rainfall in South Plainfield and surrounding towns with less than an inch of total rainfall.  However, starting tonight, a change in the weather is coming.

A storm system situated across the Midwest and Gulf Coast states will be pushing eastward, and a significant rain and wind event is set for Tuesday.  Over the weekend, the National Weather Service in Mount Holly cited the Storm Prediction Center’s analysis that indicated a moderate risk of severe weather on Tuesday across the Mid-Atlantic as well as much of the East Coast.  Since then, the SPC has backed off that projection by only indicating a slight risk of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Regardless, there is still going to be a good deal of rain and wind.  Winds will be blowing between 20 and 30 miles per hour with higher gusts on Tuesday.  The timeline for the rain is set to begin around noon time on Tuesday with steady rain falling by rush hour on Tuesday afternoon, and heavier rain coming during prime time on Tuesday night.  Significant rain is expected to last until early Wednesday morning.  By the time the rain has ended anywhere from an inch and a half to nearly three inches could fall in Northwestern Middlesex County.  Some forecasts indicate anywhere from 2 to 3 inches is possible.

A Wind Advisory is already in effect for much if not all of New Jersey starting around noon time on Tuesday, and continuing until midnight Tuesday.  Sustained winds are expected to be between 20 and 25 miles per hour with gusts up to 45 miles per hour in inland locations, and 50 miles per hour along the coast.  Two things are combining to cause problems for Tuesday.  The first is a cold front, which will be approaching from the west while the second is moisture moving into the Gulf coast from an area of disturbed weather that spun up in the Gulf of Mexico. 

Winds will be increasing during the afternoon with the strongest winds occurring in the evening until late Tuesday night when the front passes through.

09.14.12

It’s All Downhill From Here…But

Posted in Tracking the Tropics at 3:16 pm by gmachos

Passing The Statistical Peak Of The Season In The Atlantic

It is the beginning of the end. We have now passed the halfway point and statistical peak of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season (September 10th). While it has been a busy one with 14 depressions, 14 named storms, and 7 hurricanes, there has only been one major hurricane (Michael) and a strong Category Two storm (Gordon). On top of that, there have only been a few storms to impact the United States including Beryl (near Jacksonville, Florida), Debby, and of course, Isaac (Louisiana and Mississippi).

Although we have gotten over the hump this season, there is still a good deal to go yet, and we can’t afford to drop our guard, especially along the coast from Maine to Texas. September is climatologically the busiest month and the peak of the Cape Verde Season, where powerful storms form off of Africa. There is still two weeks to go in the month. Historically, a couple big storms have developed during this time that affected the Northeast and New England: The Long Island Express of 1938 and Hurricane Gloria from September 1985.

Things begin to ramp down more in earnest during the month of October, but a couple big storms have developed in the past during this month as well including Hurricane Hazel (1954) and Hurricane Opal (1995). There is also a second statistical peak in October toward the middle of the month. Common areas of development are usually in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Upper level wind patterns make it difficult for Cape Verde storms to develop. Moving into November, activity historically continues to wind down as the Northern Hemisphere heads toward winter. However, storms have developed during this month including Hurricane Kate (1985), Hurricane Gordon (1994), and Hurricane Lenny (1999).

Although the season ends on November 30th, storms have also developed during the month of December. As a matter of fact, during the historic season of 2005, there were storms in December of that year, and they lasted into January of 2006.

Nice Stretch Of Weather Coming To An End In Jersey

Posted in GWC News at 1:45 pm by gmachos

Approaching Cold Front To Bring Showers Friday Night

It has been a wonderful week here in New Jersey. Since last Saturday’s severe weather, conditions have been completely dry here in Northwestern Middlesex County as well as the rest of the Garden State. For five plus days, there has been no measurable rain here in South Plainfield. Meanwhile, temperature and dew point levels have dropped to more comfortable levels under sunny, blue skies.

Over the past seven days, the average temperature at GWC has been just under 67 degrees. High temperatures started out in the low to mid 70s in the early part of the week only to climb a bit over the past couple days to the upper 70s to near 80. Dew point levels have dropped off significantly. Prior to the severe thunderstorms on Saturday, the dew point peaked at 75.9 degrees. By the early part of the week, it had fallen to just 44.3 degrees. So far on Friday, it has been a bit higher at 63 degrees.

The past several days have been pretty much cloud free. Wednesday and Thursday were perfect while some cirrus clouds developed during the late morning and early afternoon on Friday. Those cirrus clouds could be a harbinger of things to come as a cold front is on the march from the west. The front stretches from Northern Michigan through Ohio back into Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky. This front has already created some concern in Western New York, which could have gusty thunderstorms with winds between 30 and 40 miles per hour later today and tonight.

The front should be as severe as last week’s cold front here in New Jersey. The front will be going through much later in the evening, and conditions while warmer and a bit more humid than they have been recently, aren’t anywhere near as unstable as they were last Saturday. There will be some showers coming through during the early morning hours on Saturday bringing about a tenth of an inch of rain. Speaking of rainfall, there has only been 0.78 inches of rain reported by the CoCoRaHS rain gauge while the Vantage Pro 2 gauge has recorded 0.69 so far this month. There has only been five days of measurable rain so far this month.

The lack of rain shouldn’t be too much cause for alarm since September is usually a dry month in New Jersey climatologically speaking. Back in 2011, there was 5.77 inches of rain at GWC, but most of that came from the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee in the early part of the month. Average temperature so far in September at GWC has been 70.15 degrees, which is almost two degrees warmer than last year. The highest temperature this month was on the first day at 90 degrees while the lowest was 47 degrees earlier this week.

GWC Slideshow–Thunderstorm–September 8, 2012

Posted in GWC News, YouTube Videos, GWC Slideshows at 12:48 pm by gmachos

Here is a slideshow taken from pictures of the thunderstorm that moved through Northern Middlesex County on September 8th of 2012. The storm was part of a long line of storms that stretched from New England to Northern Alabama. Earlier in the day, tornadoes were sighted in Breezy Point, Queens and Carnarsie, Brooklyn. The cold front responsible for this weather brought about significant change with strong high pressure behind it that ushered in the first taste of fall here in the Garden State.

09.13.12

Strong Storms Rumble Through Garden State Again On Saturday

Posted in Storm Aftermath, GWC News, GWC Severe Weather Report at 7:28 pm by gmachos

Severe Weather Also Produces Tornadoes In Queens And Brooklyn And A Waterspout In Brick Township

After several days of more warmth and tremendous humidity over the Garden State last week, the heavens erupted again this past Saturday with several rounds of severe weather across New Jersey as well as New York, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut as well as much of Southern New England. This latest round produced tornadoes in Queens and Brooklyn as well as a waterspout near Brick Township.

The twister in Queens was an EF0 on the Enhance Fujita Scale near Breezy Point while the one in Brooklyn was located in the Canarsie section, and was an EF1. Both storms developed in the late morning well before the strong line of thunderstorms pushed through the region in the late afternoon. The waterspout also occurred around the same time as the two twisters. Another waterspout near Asbury Park was reported, but not confirmed.

Storms that developed during the late afternoon were more widespread as a powerful cold front pushed eastward and spawned severe thunderstorms from New England to Northern Georgia and Alabama. The leading edge came through between 5:00 and 6:00 PM with a strong gust front that produced high winds in places such as Edison, Woodbridge, and Perth Amboy in Middlesex County as well as Montville in Morris County and Clinton Township in Hunterdon County.

The second wave of storms in the afternoon produced very little in the way of rain. Even the third wave that followed in the early evening didn’t produce much either. In South Plainfield, the total rainfall from the two rounds of storms accompanying the cold front was just under a quarter of an inch. The storms did down trees in many places in Jersey.

Could Hurricane Irene Have Been A Harbinger Of Things To Come?

Posted in Commentary, GWC News, Global Warming And Hurricanes, Tracking the Tropics at 6:34 pm by gmachos

Sea Surface Temperatures Off East Coast Of U.S. And Canada Remain Warmer Than Normal

Over a year has past since Hurricane Irene rolled up the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern coastline of the United States. While the storm caused considerable damage, and ended up being the seventh costliest hurricane on record in the U.S., it could have been far worse. Irene had a lot of things going for it at the time. Among them were sea surface temperatures, which usually run in the lower 70s off the Jersey shore, were running into the upper 70s.

Fortunately, dry air became entrenched in the storm, and prevented it from coming into the New York Metropolitan area as a strong Category Two storm or worse. However, Irene could be a sign of things to come for New Jersey. Twelve months after Irene, sea surface temperatures along the Jersey coast are running from the upper 70s to low 80s. Remember, tropical storms and hurricanes are energized by warm water that is 80 degrees fahrenheit, or 27 degrees celsius, or warmer.

The unusually warm water has been great for those journeying to the coastal towns in New Jersey. It has also been a curse for fishermen, and others who live off the sea. According to a recent article by Stephen Stirling of the Star-Ledger, Warmer waters have caused migration of fish into the area that have never been in this region before. Other fish that are more familiar in these parts such as fluke have moved further north. Meanwhile, in places such as Maine and Canada, Lobster harvests have been more than abundant, which has caused a drop in price for the very popular seafood, and that has made it difficult for lobstermen to make a profit.

Here at Hurricaneville though, the concern is about tropical storms and hurricanes. Warmer waters along the Jersey coast means more powerful storms and hurricanes being able to maintain themselves longer, and further north. Last year, the Garden State dodged a bullet with Hurricane Irene, and is still long overdue for a powerful hurricane of Category Two strength or better. Recently, Rick Schwartz of Mid-Atlantic Hurricanes.com indicated in his monthly column that the entire Mid-Atlantic from Virginia to New Jersey has been long overdue for a powerful land hurricane similar to Hurricane Hazel back in October 1954.

Climatologically, the region is due for a significant storm that can bring hurricane force wind gusts of 75 to 90 miles per hour east of the eye of the storm with some gusts reaching 100 miles per hour and between 50 and 75 miles per hour west of the eye. About every 57 to 58 years, a Category Three or Four storm has done this in the Mid-Atlantic going back to 1667, and that is originate in the Caribbean Sea, make landfall in North Carolina, and then pound the Mid-Atlantic region. So far in 2012, the East Coast of the United States has gone unscathed to date.

The statistical peak of the season, September 10th, has passed, and even though there have been 14 depressions, 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and one major hurricane, only several have made some sort of impact on the United States. Beryl, which made landfall near Jacksonville in late May and Isaac, which hammered Louisiana and Mississippi late last month. Recent storms such as Leslie, Michael, and Nadine have had tracks taking them well away from land. All of that could change with one storm. Like anywhere along our coastline from Maine to Texas, one storm is all it takes to change everything forever.

09.11.12

GWC Storm Footage–September 8, 2012–Thunderstorm Rumbles Across Central Jersey

Posted in GWC News, Storm Footage, YouTube Videos at 8:21 am by gmachos

Here is video footage of a thunderstorm moving through Northern Middlesex County on September 8, 2012. This storm was part of a line of storms that moved through the Garden State with high winds that knocked down trees in parts of Morris and Hunterdon counties. Earlier in the day, tornadoes touched down in Breezy Point, Queens and Carnarsie, Brooklyn in New York City while a waterspout was spotted near Brick Township in New Jersey.

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