08.28.09

Jersey May Not Get Danny, But Will Still See Showers And Storms

Posted in General, GWC News at 5:28 pm by gmachos

Once again, the Garden State as well as much of the Mid-Atlantic will be spared the direct effects of Tropical Storm Danny, but will still have another bummer of a weekend thanks to a warm front, which will be lifting over the region today. Earlier this morning, there were clouds and showers in Northwestern Middlesex County while much more severe weather was occurring further south just east of Trenton. A Hazardous Weather Outlook was issued earlier by the NWS office in Mount Holly.

The outlook called for heavy rain for the rest of Friday and Friday night as the warm front moves northward into the area. Gusty winds can also be possible as well. Over the weekend, more showers and thunderstorms are expected accompanied by gusty winds even though Danny will be passing well to the east. On Friday, the forecast is calling for a 90 percent chance of precipitation in Northwestern Middlesex County with a tenth to a quarter of an inch falling during the day, and another one to two inches falling on Friday night and Saturday.

Tropical Storm Warning In Effect For Coastal Waters Off Jersey

Posted in Storm Track, Storm Warning at 5:15 pm by gmachos

Good afternoon again. Just checked out the web page for the National Weather Service Office in Mount Holly, New Jersey, and found that there is a Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the coastal waters for the far southeastern portion of the region from Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon. This includes waters offshore of New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland. Closer to the coast, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Jersey shore from Sandy Hook southward to Cape May. The advisory actually extends to Fenwick Island, Delaware.

The forecast calls for East to Southeast winds between 10 to 15 knots with seas building from 3 to 4 feet to 5 to 6 feet this afternoon. Tonight, winds will start out from the Southeast at 15 to 20 knots, and then becoming North to Northeast at 15 to 25 knots with areas further to the South and East getting winds as high as 35 knots. Seas will be ranging between 6 to 10 feet while there will be rain showers and thunderstorms. On Saturday, winds will shift to the North to Northwest from 20 to 30 knots while seas will build to between 8 to 15 feet. Things will begin to wind down though as Danny scoots past the Garden State, across Eastern Long Island, and into New England.

Still Watching Tropical Wave In Central Atlantic

Posted in General, Storm Track at 4:19 pm by gmachos

Good afternoon. In addition to Danny, the web site continues to follow the progress of a tropical wave in the Central Atlantic. As of 8:00 AM this morning, the wave was located some 850 miles to the West-Southwest of the Southernmost portion of the Cape Verde Islands. Moving to the West at 15 miles per hour, the wave has not become better organized over the past 24 hours.

As a matter of fact, there is been little change in structure. However, upper level winds remain favorable for development, and there is a 30 to 50 percent chance of this wave becoming a tropical depression or storm in 48 hours. Looking at the latest water vapor imagery, you can not only see that the convection is still holding together quite well, but also there is a ridge of high pressure keeping it to the south for the time being.

The models are generally going in a West-Northwest to Northwest direction, but may of them have the storm moving north of the islands with time. We’ll have to see if this trend continues. Meanwhile, another wave is in the Eastern Atlantic just off the West Coast of Africa. We are now approaching the statistical peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. So, now is the time to watch the Eastern Atlantic for the Cape Verde storms, which are your more classical hurricanes. Hurricaneville will continue to monitor the progress of these waves, and provide updates when they warrant.

Danny Weakens Further

Posted in Storm Track, Storm Warning at 3:59 pm by gmachos

Good morning again everyone. Hurricaneville continues to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Danny, which remains disorganized. The storm has weakened even further since our last posting Thursday afternoon. Located some 350 miles to the South of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, or about 830 miles South-Southwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts, Danny has weakened to a minimal tropical storm with winds of only 40 miles per hour. According to the forecast advisory, wind gusts are as high 50 miles per hour while minimum central pressure has remained steady at 1008 millibars, or 29.77 inches of Hg.

The center of circulation remains exposed while much of the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with Danny continues to be to the north and east. So, even if Danny heads westward toward the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and eventually pass over Southeastern New England, they will likely not see the strongest winds from the storm since they lie on the western side of the official forecast track. Winds are very light on the western side since no convection has wrapped around the center, which is a key ingredient for tropical development. The NHC Discussion actually has Danny’s circulation moving westward away from the showers and thunderstorms.

In addition, the forecast discussion doesn’t show Danny getting much stronger either. With an upper level low to the west, a stationary front to the northwest, and a trough digging in from the Midwest, upper level conditions are getting less and less favorable for development. There is still a 12 hour window for strengthening, but after that, the SHIPS model projects wind shear of up to 30 knots developing in a much more hostile environment for the storm. Nevertheless, the SHIPS has Danny still becoming a 66 knot hurricane in 48 hours. The NHC only sees Danny strengthening to have 45 knot, or 50 mile per hour winds by the end of the five day forecast period, but by that time, it will be extratropical.

In spite of Danny’s decline, there is still a Tropical Storm Watch in effect for the North Carolina coast from Cape Lookout to Duck including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Interests from North Carolina northward into New England and the Canadian Maritimes should continue to monitor the progress of the system. Additional watches may be issued later today. The forecast cone has narrowed, but it still shows the storm getting very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and then heading into Long Island and New England on Saturday. New Jersey is to the left of the forecast track, and now isn’t even part of Accu-Weather’s cone of uncertainty.

Looking at local weather statements by the National Weather Service offices in Newport/Morehead City, North Carolina and Boston, Massachusetts, there is a high likelihood of rough seas and rip currents. As of 6:14 AM EDT this morning, there was a decreasing probability of tropical storm conditions over the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The most significant threats from Danny were going to be dangerous surf and high rip current risks along the beaches. The effects of wind, rain, and surge were forecast to be minimal. Breaking waves are expected to be between 4 to 6 feet while seas are expected to be between 8 to 10 feet near the coast with isolated 10 to 12 foot seas further offshore. Meanwhile, in Boston, a Tropical Storm Watch was issued at 11:32 AM for the Massachusetts coastal waters south of Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket and east of Cape Cod. The likelihood of tropical storm conditions has increased, and seas are expected to be as high as 15 feet.

Hurricaneville will continue to monitor Danny’s progress throughout the day, and provide updates whenever it can.

08.27.09

Danny Weakens As Tropical Storm Watch Issued For Carolina Coast

Posted in Storm Track, Storm Warning at 9:45 pm by gmachos

Good late afternoon to everyone. I had watched some of the satellite imagery from the Weather Channel as of about 2:00 PM EDT from my home in Northwestern Middlesex County, New Jersey. As I watched, I said to myself that Tropical Storm Danny looked more disorganized that it did earlier today. Evidently, I was on to something as the latest advisory indicates that Danny has weakened. The 5:00 PM Advisory from the National Hurricane Center indicates that the maximum sustained winds in Danny have decreased to 50 miles per hour while its minimum central pressure has risen slightly to 1008 millibars, or 29.77 inches of Hg.

Hurricaneville continues to monitor Danny as it drifts westward at some 2 miles per hour. The storm is now located some 545 miles to the South-Southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, or 295 miles Northeast of Nassau in the Bahamas. As the report on TWC indicates, Danny is struggling in its battle against a hostile environment. If you have had a chance to look at the color enhanced satellite loop of the North Atlantic, you can see that another element, a shortwave trough in the Southeastern United States is coming into play. This trough, which is moving northeastward, is bringing clouds and showers to Florida, Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi. The water vapor imagery suggests that the exposed circulation is being beat up to say that least while dry air has developed in the area of Danny. The deeper convection in the thunderstorms North and East of the low level circulation has eroded in the past few hours.

The latest discussion from the NHC indicates that Danny will not reach minimal hurricane strength in the next 48 hours as suggested earlier in the day. The latest intensity forecast has Danny remaining a tropical storm for the next 48 hours reaching maximum sustained winds of 60 knots, or 70 miles per hour. Within 72 hours, the system will become extratropical. Important to note that both the GFDL (79.7 knots or 90 mph winds) and HWRF (71.6 knots or about 80 mph winds) models are still calling for Danny to become a hurricane within 36 hours. SHIPS model has Danny with 70 knot winds (80 mph) in 48 hours.

Meanwhile, the forecast track models have shifted to the left a bit. The NHC official forecast has the storm very near the Outer Banks of North Carolina by Saturday morning, and very near the Cape Cod area by Saturday evening. The models are in agreement that the system will turn to the north in 24 to 36 hours. The new NHC track shifted to the left a bit, but is still to the right of many of the models. The slow progress of Danny to the west has changed the track over the first 48 hours. With all of that said, a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect from the North Carolina coast from Cape Lookout to Duck including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

Hurricaneville will continue to monitor the progress of this system as it continues to move in the direction of the United States. More updates will be posted in the blog as well as in the storm report and Tracking the Tropics sections.

NHC Increases Chances Of Development For Eastern Atlantic Disturbance

Posted in General, Storm Warning at 6:25 pm by gmachos

Good afternoon again. Just looked at the latest text and graphical outlook for the Atlantic Tropics from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, and noticed that the tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic continues to show signs of better organization. The probability of tropical development of this wave is now between 30 to 50 percent, or medium chance. Looking at the latest color satellite imagery from the entire Atlantic Basin, you can see in the bottom right corner a vast area of clouds, showers, and thunderstorms heading westward. There is plenty of time to watch it as the storm is still some 350 miles to the South-Southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. However, interests in the Lesser Antilles should pay close attention to this developing disturbance.

Tropical Wave Getting Better Organized In Eastern Atlantic

Posted in Storm Track at 4:33 pm by gmachos

While Danny has gained the bulk of the attention over the past few days, a tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic also deserves some concern. Hurricaneville has been monitoring the progress of this wave as well. Churning several hundred miles to the South-Southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, the wave has become better organized this morning as it continues westward. There is a possibility of some more gradual strengthening over the next couple of days, but there is still less than a 30 percent chance of this wave developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. Models all indicate that the storm will continue to progress in a westward direction for the time being. However, some diverge to north of the islands while others have the disturbance going through the Southern Windwards. The web site will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Watches May Be Issued Later Today For East Coast Of United States

Posted in General, Storm Track at 3:40 pm by gmachos

Good late morning to everyone. Hurricaneville continues to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Danny as it meanders westward in the Western Atlantic. As of the 11 AM EDT Advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Danny was located some 320 miles Northeast of Nassau, or about 550 miles South-Southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Mostly everything remains status quo. Maximum sustained winds remain at 60 miles per hour with gusts up to 70 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure remains at 1006 millibars, or 29.71 inches of Hg.

The change from earlier this morning is that the storm is moving erratically. Wobbling westward, Danny has picked up some forward speed, and is moving to the Northwest at 13 miles per hour. The storm is still projected to turn to the North with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next 24 hours. Gradual strengthening is also expected over the next couple of days. A Tropical Storm Watch may be issued for portions of the Eastern Seaboard from North Carolina to New England later today. Models still are in fairly good agreement that this storm will stay away from the Jersey Shore although Accu-Weather still has the Garden State in its cone of uncertainty. Intensity forecasts are still indicating that Danny will be a Category One Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale by the time it is near Cape Hatteras on Saturday morning.

Hurricaneville is going to issue a Storm Report shortly as well as a Tracking the Tropics segment. The site will continue to monitor the progress of this storm as it continues to head toward the U.S. East Coast. Further updates will be posted to the blog.

Danny Strengthens, But Remains Poorly Organized

Posted in Storm Track, Storm Preparation at 12:56 pm by gmachos

Good morning everyone. Hurricaneville continues to follow Tropical Storm Danny, which is now located some 370 miles to the East-Northeast of Nassau in the Bahamas, or about 575 miles to the South-Southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. There have been some changes to the storm overnight as its center of circulation has reformed a bit more to the north while its winds have increased, and its forward direction has shifted more to the Northwest. Maximum sustained winds with Danny have increased to 60 miles per hour while the barometric pressure has decreased to 1006 millibars, or about 29.71 inches of Hg. The storm is moving to the Northwest at 10 miles per hour.

The key with Danny is that the storm remains quite disorganized as the satellite imagery courtesy of the Weather Channel will show. Almost all of the deep convection associated with the system is off to the north and east of the center of circulation, which remains exposed. Tropical storm force winds reach out some 205 miles from the center. So, it is quite a vast system. However, only slow strengthening is expected. No rapid intensification like we saw with Hurricane Bill out in the Central Atlantic last week. As long as the clouds, showers, and storms don’t start to wrap around the center of circulation, Danny will have a tough time becoming a hurricane.

The forecast for Danny is much more complex than it was for Bill. Since the storm is disorganized, and the center of circulation reformed, the Hurricane Hunter aircraft had a tough time pinpointing the exact initial motion of the storm. However, the models are in general agreement that Danny will move to the North on Friday as it tracks between a high pressure ridge over the Western Atlantic Ocean and a shortwave trough hovering over the Southeastern United States. A larger trough upstream over the Great Lakes is expected to increase flow to the northeast, and Danny will ride that out.

There is some disagreement over the intensity forecast of Tropical Storm Danny. Models still indicate that Danny, which is encountering very little shear right now, will be dealing with increased shear over the next 24 to 36 hours. Nevertheless, they still call for Danny to become a hurricane in 48 hours, and the NHC agrees with this assessment. However, there is some suggestion that the storm may become a hybrid, or extratropical system beyond that time frame as it joins forces with the low pressure over the Great Lakes. The transition from a tropical to extratropical cyclone may give it more energy to become stronger.

More Rough Seas And Rip Currents This Coming Weekend?

Posted in Storm Track, Storm Preparation at 12:41 am by gmachos

Good evening once again everyone. Well, it appears that Tropical Storm Danny will be making some sort of impact on the East Coast this weekend. Even if the storm appears to follow a path similar to Hurricane Bill’s, which parallels the United States coastline. According to the latest online tropical report from the Weather Channel, there is a good likelihood of heavy surf and rip currents again this weekend, which may keep residents again away from the beaches along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard.

Last weekend, Hurricane Bill was responsible for two deaths in the United States as it generated high waves, heavy surf, and rip currents from Florida all the way up into Maine. Bill was a stronger storm than Danny is forecast to be at this time. However, Tropical Storm Danny is on a track that will bring it closer to the coastline, especially in Long Island and New England. So, many of the beaches may feel more wind effects as well as rough seas. Nevertheless, the storm could still cause a dangerous undertow for those who may be looking to get into the water one last time this summer.

Residents all along the United States Eastern Seaboard from the Southeast to New England as well as the Bahamas and the Canadian Maritimes should closely monitor the progress of this developing storm. Stay tuned to Hurricaneville for the latest developments on the site as well as here on the blog.

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