08.31.09

August A Busy Month For Eastern Pacific

Posted in Hurricane Records at 12:26 pm by gmachos

With the formation of Hurricane Jimena and Tropical Storm Kevin over the past several days, the tropics in the Eastern Pacific had seven named storms in the month of August alone. That is the most storms in one month for this region since the 1960s. So far this season, the Eastern Pacific has benefited from the latest El Nino episode with 14 depressions, 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

Eastern Pacific Continues Busy Summer With Powerful Hurricane Jimena

Posted in Storm Track, Storm Warning at 12:22 pm by gmachos

Hurricaneville has not posted a lot of news on what’s been happening in the Eastern Pacific this summer. However, it still has been following what’s going on there. Within the past several days, a powerful hurricane has developed there just off of the West Coast of Mexico. Hurricane Jimena, which formed on Friday night.

Since that time, Jimena has rapidly intensified into a major hurricane. As of the 5:00 AM PDT Advisory, the storm has maximum sustained winds of 145 miles per hour with gusts in upwards of 180 miles per hour, which makes it a very strong Category Four Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Minimum central pressure has dropped to 940 millibars, or 27.76 inches of Hg. The powerful storm, which is located some 370 miles South-Southeast of Cabo San Lucas in Baja California, is moving to the Northwest at 8 miles per hour.

The system is a very compact one with hurricane force winds extending some 30 miles from the eye while tropical storm force winds reach out some 80 miles. A Hurricane Watch is presently in effect for the Southern portion of the Baja Peninsula from Bahia Magdelena southward on the West Coast, and from San Envaristo southward on the East Coast including Cabo San Lucas.

Tropical Disturbance In Central Atlantic Still Not A Cyclone…Yet

Posted in Storm Track at 12:05 pm by gmachos

Good morning everyone. Hurricaneville continues to watch the broad area of low pressure some 600 miles to the East of the Lesser Antilles this morning. Within the past few hours, thunderstorm activity has picked up.

The Weather Channel indicated that it has good structure and outflow, and overall it looked a lot healthier than Danny did. Nevertheless, the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has still not made this low a depression or storm yet. In addition, the models have not really picked up on this system in terms of intensity yet although they indicate that it should go north of the islands.

There is, however, still a high chance (greater than 50 percent) that this low will become a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. The low continues to head toward the West-Northwest at 15 miles per hour. Meanwhile, another disturbance is moving off the West African coast near Senegal, Guinea-Bisseau, Sierra Leone, and Liberia this morning. We will have to wait and see if this develops.

08.30.09

Tropical Disturbance In Central Atlantic Getting Its Act Together

Posted in Storm Track at 12:22 pm by gmachos

Good morning everyone. Just took a glance at the National Hurricane Center’s web site, and noticed that the disturbance in the Atlantic had its chances to become a tropical cyclone upgraded to higher than 50 percent over the next 48 hours. The NHC believes that the clouds and showers associated with the broad area of low pressure located some 950 miles to the East of the Windward Islands continues to get better organized.

The latest satellite imagery from the entire Northern Atlantic shows not only the disturbance in the Central Atlantic getting better organized with increased thunderstorm development, but a blowup of clouds and showers in the Southwestern Caribbean near Colombia and Panama. Meanwhile, a tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic continues to head westward, but shows no signs of development at this time. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of the disturbance in the Central Atlantic.

08.29.09

NHC Lowers Its Assessment Of Disturbance In Central Atlantic

Posted in Storm Track at 12:29 pm by gmachos

Good morning again. Just looked at the Tropical Weather Outlook given by the National Hurricane Center, and it indicates that shower and thunderstorm activity with our tropical wave in the Central Atlantic has diminished somewhat overnight. The wave, which is located approximately 1500 miles to the East of the Lesser Antilles, is moving to the West-Northwest at 15 miles per hour. With the decrease in thunderstorm activity, the NHC states that any development with this wave associated with a broad area of low pressure, will be slow to occur, and that there is less than a 30 percent chance of tropical formation over the next 48 hours.

Gale Warning Now In Effect For Coastal Waters Off New Jersey

Posted in GWC News, Storm Warning at 12:24 pm by gmachos

Good morning again. Now that Danny has been absorbed into an extratropical low near the North Carolina coast, all Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings have been changed to Gale Watches and Warnings. The Coastal Waters from Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon is under a Gale Warning as of 5:30 AM this morning. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service in Mount Holly states that there is a moderate risk for Rip Currents as waves are expected to break at 5 feet.

Last Advisory Issued On Danny By NHC

Posted in Storm Track at 12:19 pm by gmachos

Good morning. I don’t have much time this morning since I have to get to work. However, I did briefly make a stop at the National Hurricane Center’s web site, and saw that it issued the last advisory on Tropical Storm Danny. As of the 5:00 AM EDT Advisory from the NHC, the Tropical Storm Watch that had been in effect for the North Carolina coast from Cape Lookout to Duck had been discontinued. By early this morning, Danny was finally giving in to the hostile environment around it as it was being absorbed by an extratropical low. The last position of Danny, which was downgraded to a depression was 80 miles to the Southeast of Cape Hatteras, or about 540 miles to the South-Southwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts.

Danny Heading North-Northeast Still As A Minimal Tropical Storm

Posted in Storm Track, Storm Warning at 1:41 am by gmachos

Good evening everyone. Hurricaneville continues to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Danny as it heads up the East Coast of the United States. Currently, the storm is located 300 miles to the South of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, or approximately 765 miles to the South-Southwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the North Carolina coast from Cape Lookout to Duck including Albermarle and Pamlico Sounds, and a warning may be issued later as tropical storm conditions may occur there within 24 hours.

Danny still has maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour with gusts as high as 50 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure has dropped a bit to just 1006 millibars, or 29.71 inches of Hg. All in all though, things with Danny have remained status quo through the day. Some slight strengthening is possible, but not likely with Danny as it heads into more hostile upper level atmospheric conditions. The system is now headed toward the North-Northeast at about 8 miles per hour. A general North to North-Northeast motion is expected over the next couple days with an increase in forward momentum.

With this North to North-Northeast track, Danny is expected to be in the vicinity of the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Saturday morning, Southeastern Massachusetts by Saturday night, and into the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday. All interests along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of this system. More watches could be issued. Tropical Storm Watches for the coastal waters off of Massachusetts have been changed to those for Gale Warnings or Nor’easters according to the afternoon weather statement from the NWS Station in Boston.

Flash Flood Watch Out For Much Of New Jersey

Posted in General, GWC News, Storm Warning at 1:25 am by gmachos

Good evening everyone. The National Weather Service Office in Mount Holly, New Jersey has issued a Flash Flood Watch for much of New Jersey including Middlesex County. Heavy rain has fallen in many parts of the Garden State today, and much more is on the way tonight and Saturday. Looking at the latest Doppler Radar imagery from the NWS, rainfall encompasses the entire region of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York.

Right now, light to moderate rainfall is falling across Middlesex County, but more rain is coming from the south and west. Heavy rains are falling in Southeastern Pennsylvania and Maryland. Meanwhile, steams of showers and thunderstorms are rolling across Delaware and Southern Jersey. Rainfall amounts across the Garden State in the past hour have ranged from a tenth to a quarter of an inch while storm rainfall totals have ranged between an inch and a half to two and a half inches across portions of Central Jersey. Meanwhile, further south along the Jersey Shore, rainfall amounts have ranged between 2 to 5 iinches.

Further to the Southwest across Southeastern Pennsylvania and Northern Maryland, doppler radar indicates rainfall amounts ranging from 2 to 8 inches as well with some locations near Baltimore receiving in upwards of 10 inches. All of this rainfall is due to several features on our map tonight. One is a warm front that is lifting to the north. Two is an upper level low to our south pushing northward, and finally there is a cold front pushing in from the Midwest. In the midsection of the country there has been torrential rains, particularly in Iowa over the past several days.

The silver lining in all of this is that the upper level low and warm front are helping to keep Tropical Storm Danny from strengthening and coming onshore along the East Coast of the United States. The fourth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season is expected to pass near the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Saturday morning, and then race up the Eastern Seaboard during the day before clipping Southeastern Massachusetts by Saturday night. Danny is expected to be extratropical by Sunday.

08.28.09

Danny Hanging On To Tropical Storm Status

Posted in Storm Track, Storm Warning at 9:05 pm by gmachos

Good late afternoon everyone. Hurricaneville continues to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Danny as it begins to head to the North again. Danny had been stationary a few hours ago, but Hurricane Hunter aircraft has detected a northward motion in the system at 6 miles per hour. Danny is now located some 330 miles to the South of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, or about 810 miles South-Southwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts. Tropical Storm Watches remain in effect for the North Carolina coast from Cape Lookout to Duck including the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. Maximum sustained winds remain at 40 miles per hour according to the latest reconnaissance.

Gusts are still in upwards of 50 miles per hour (45 knots) while the barometric pressure remains steady at 1007 millibars, or 29.74 inches of Hg. Upper level divergence has been increasing in the vicinity of Danny, which has increased the likelihood of strengthening over the next few hours before it heads into cooler waters, and a much more unfavorable environment at the upper levels. Looking at the satellite imagery over the past several hours, there has been some development of thunderstorms near the center. Recon aircraft noted a 33 knot wind in the Southeastern Quadrant of Danny, which helped keep it a tropical storm.

The models are more in agreement now with the track of the storm. The official NHC forecast calls for it to continue to accelerate rapidly to the north and northeast, but still approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Saturday morning and the Eastern end of Massachusetts by Saturday evening. Now, though, the intensity forecast calls for Danny to be extratropical by late Saturday night early Sunday morning. Stay tuned to Hurricaneville for the latest developments on Danny, which will be posted here in the blog.

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