The Blast Furnace Fires Up for Pre-July 4th Weekend in New Jersey

Posted in General, GWC News, GWC Severe Weather at 4:10 pm by gmachos

Peak of Prolonged Heatwave Has Begun and to Last Thru Monday

Summer has begun in earnest around the Garden State. The graduations are over. Fourth of July is just days away, and the first major heat wave of the season is underway with a ferocity that has not been seen for a few years.

Early last week, conditions were mostly dry, breezy, and pleasant around New Jersey, but by midweek, showers and thunderstorms ushered in a ridge of high pressure and a southwesterly flow of air that has pushed the thermometer upward, and will keep it there at least through this week

Starting on Thursday, temperatures began to creep into the 90s, and by early Sunday afternoon, the mercury was pushing hard toward the century mark. The National Weather Service Office in Mount Holly, New Jersey had issued an Excessive Heat Watch on Friday, which it upgraded to a warning on Saturday.

The warning came into effect at 8:00 AM Sunday morning, and is expected to continue until 8:00 PM on Monday evening. Temperatures during this period arre expected to reach well into the upper 90s and perhaps 100 while heat indices will probably range between 105 and 110 with some isolated areas going even higher than that.

This torrid weather stretch is reminiscent of the heat and humidity experienced during the early summers of 2011 and 2012. Those two years were part of an extraordinary period of extreme weather in New Jersey that began with a series of severe storms in September 2010, continued with the Holiday Blizzard of December 2010 and Hurricane Irene in August 2011, and finished with Superstorm Sandy in late October 2012.

Both the early summers of 2011 and 2012 were remarkable for their tremendous heat and humidity. In July 2011, the Weather Station at Greg’s Weather Center recorded a maximum heat index of just under 121 degrees. The following year, in July 2012, the heat index peaked at 117 degrees. July 2013 even had some similar heat with a top heat index of 117 also that month. During the July 2011 heat wave, the mercury peaked at just under 104 degrees at GWC. The following year, in July 2012, the temperature peaked at a little over 102 degrees.

While the heat index and temperature are not nearly as close to where they were during those two years, the mercury is still forecasted to reach about 100 degrees. Currently at GWC in South Plainfield, the temperature is 98 degrees, and it feels as hot as 106 outside. Dew point is quite high at 69 degrees while there is only a light wind out of the Southwest at about 5 miles per hour.

If you are looking for any relief, there might not be any at least until the latter portion of the week here in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. High on Monday is expected to be about the same while Tuesday will be only a bit cooler at 94 degrees. The July 4th holiday may have some fireworks courtesy of Mother Nature with a 30 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms with a high of 91. Thursday and Friday’s forecast shows an increased chance of rain and thunderstorms with temperatures dropping into the upper 80s.

However, that forecast may be just a bit more optimistic. Larry Cosgrove of WeatherAmerica indicated that the cold front that is forecast to come in around the period of July 6th to July 8th, may not bring the relief that the East Coast will be looking for. Areas further to the north such as those above Interstate 70, but it will not bring the kind of relief we will be looking for. Temperature are also expected to rebound back into the lower 90s by July 10th and 11th according to long term forecasts provided by The Weather Channel.

On a personal note, I went out for a walk twice yesterday as well as a couple on Friday. While conditions were getting uncomfortable then, both days were more pleasant than what is being experienced outside GWC on Sunday. I walked for just under an hour around my neighborhood and several other neighborhoods nearby. It was brutal outside. True, I went out for a walk around 11:30 on Sunday morning, but I went out at around the same times on Friday and Saturday, and it was more comfortable, or bearable depending how you would like to look at it.

I believe that this heatwave could be part of another prolonged period of extreme weather in New Jersey similar to that from September 2010 to November 2012. This new period had its origins back in the latter stages of this past winter with the four strong Nor’easters that rocked the Garden State throughout March and early April. Then, there was the period of 9 weeks from mid-April to a couple weeks ago, where there were rainy conditions during all or part of the weekend. There was also an outbreak of severe weather in New Jersey on Tuesday, May 15th that brought high winds and heavy rains.

Conditions have also noticeably gone from Winter to Summer without much of a Spring here in New Jersey. Whether or not these severe events become part of an actual prolonged period of rough weather for the Garden State true remains to be seen. The 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season is only a month old, but by this time last year, the region had already seen at least three named storms come and go while this year there has only been one. Nevertheless, we are still very far from the climatological peak of the hurricane season, which usually occurs in early to mid-September with the statistical peak falling on September 10th.

One thing is for sure, and that is this week’s heat could be the most severe New Jersey has seen in about 5 years.


Thunderstorms Roll Through New Jersey on Tuesday Night

Posted in GWC News, GWC Severe Weather, Storm Track, Storm Warning at 4:52 pm by gmachos

Coming home from a seminar that I was at in South Brunswick, I could see the flashes of lightning off in the distance as I was about to get off Interstate 287 in Piscataway. I checked the radar when I got home, and found that a solid line of storms was pushing into New Jersey from the west.

The flashes of lightning became more vivid and intense over the next two hours as the line of storms held up as they pushed through Eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey. It was quite a light show. The lightning went on for about 20 minutes before the rain started to fall. Winds began to pick up as well.

The National Weather Service office in Mount Holly, New Jersey issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for a line of storms pushing through western New Jersey into Middlesex, Somerset, Hunterdon, and Mercer County. Winds with these cells of storms were estimated by radar up to 70 miles per hour with an isolated tornado possible along with hail the size of a penny, or approximately 3/4 of an inch.

Towns and cities that were in the path of these storms included: Carteret, East Brunswick, Edison, New Brunswick, North Brunswick, Old Bridge, Perth Amboy, Sayreville, and South Brunswick in Middlesex County. The storms moved over Greg’s Weather Center in South Plainfield, and brought torrential rains, gusty winds, and vivid lightning.

These storms were the first in two lines of storms that ushered in relatively cooler and drier air. At 1:24 PM on Tuesday afternoon, the temperature was already up to 87 degrees at GWC in South Plainfield, NJ. Dew point was up to 78 for a heat index of 100. It didn’t stop there either. The high temperature at GWC on Tuesday was 92 degrees with a heat index of 103.

About 24 hours later, on Wednesday afternoon, the temperature was only 80 degrees with a dew point of 58 for a heat index of 80 degrees. This is only the beginning. More cooler and drier air will be moving in over the next 12 to 24 hours, which will result in a more fall like feel to the air around Central Jersey. By Saturday and Sunday, temperatures will be only topping out in the mid 70s.

Meanwhile, the tropics are stirring up again. Harvey’s remnants have regenerated into a depression, and could become a storm again very soon, and perhaps even a minimal hurricane in the Western Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. In addition, there is another area of disturbed weather near the Bahamas in the Atlantic that is bringing heavy rains to South Florida. More on those things later.


Thunderstorms Possible This Afternoon and Evening in New Jersey

Posted in GWC News, GWC Severe Weather at 11:00 am by gmachos

Some Storms Could Be Severe As Front Approaches From West

Over the last couple weeks here in New Jersey, there has been a tremendous amount of humidity. Last weekend, dew points were in the upper 70s to low 80s. For example, the dew point on Saturday at GWC was 82, and it was 81 last Sunday. Although storms earlier this week quelled some of the humidity, the dew points have remained quite high.

After some pleasant weather on Wednesday, the dew points went back up into the low to mid 70s from Thursday to Sunday morning. Fortunately, temperatures weren’t as warm as they were during the recent heatwave so conditions have been a bit more comfortable. A refreshing change is on the way though, but it will come as the result of some afternoon and evening thunderstorms on Sunday.

A cold front has been pushing eastward through the country. On Saturday, the frontal system was responsible for producing severe weather in Michigan and Ohio as well as other locations in the Midwest. There were 11 different severe weather reports from the weather on Saturday in Michigan and Ohio, which is the most since July 7th according to The Weather Channel.

Now, the front is pushing into the Northeast. Showers and storms are already firing up in Western Pennsylvania and New York, and that weather will be inching closer and closer to the Garden State, New York City, and Philadelphia as the day progresses on Sunday. Storms are forecast to affect GWC and Central Jersey sometime during the late afternoon and early evening.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has put sections of Eastern Pennsylvania and Western New Jersey under a marginal risk for severe storms. The National Weather Service Office in Mount Holly, New Jersey issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for the entire Garden State on Sunday. Conditions possible with these storms include strong wind gusts, hail, heavy rainfall, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

So far this month, GWC has received far less rain than it did in July. As of this morning, there has only been 1.30 inches of rain here in South Plainfield. Last month, there was over six inches of rain. June saw several inches of rainfall. There have been a number of severe weather incidents at GWC within the past month. Most notable were the incidents on July 18th and July 25th. Both events were spurred on by tremendous heat and humidity.

There were some strong storms overnight on Tuesday into Wednesday at GWC. Heavy thunder with vivid lightning accompanied these storms, which also had some gusty winds that brought down large tree limbs not only in the neighborhood outside GWC, but also in nearby Piscataway. Yesterday, the heat and humidity produced storms that dumped torrential rain in Long Island during the early afternoon. Behind the front will be some welcome changes though.

After some lingering showers on Monday morning, the temperature and dew point levels will drop. The Mercury will have a tough time getting into the 80s over the next two or three days early next week, and lows will dip into the 50s. Dew points will be much more comfortable. So, there will be some short term pain with the storms this afternoon, but that will yield a much deserved reward to start the final two weeks of August.


Heat and Humidity Dominant Theme in Summer of 2016

Posted in GWC News, GWC Severe Weather at 5:54 pm by gmachos

Twenty-One Days of 90 Degree Plus Temperatures at GWC

In the wake of Hurricane Sandy in October 2012, there was an emergence of an El Niño pattern and for the past several years, temperatures had been more comfortable. The summers of 2011 and 2012 saw peak temperatures over 100 degrees, but then in 2013, 2014, and 2015, the peaks were only in the mid 90s.

While the heat has not been as intense as the summers of 2011 and 2012, there has certainly been a lot of it at GWC. The peak temperature of the year at GWC was reached recently during the latest heat wave to grip the Garden State and Mid-Atlantic States.

On Saturday, August 13th, the high temperature at GWC in South Plainfield was 96 degrees, the highest to date in 2016 for this location. On top of that, the humidity reached its highest level of 2016 with a peak dew point of 82. Combining the heat and humidity, the heat index reached a remarkable 125 degrees.

The intense tropical heat and humidity last weekend were the highlights of the latest heatwave at GWC and the rest of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This latest torrid stretch of weather lasted for six days. It was the fourth heatwave of the summer at GWC. The longest stretch of 90 degree plus heat was eight days cumulating with powerful storms on July 25th.

There have been 21 days of 90 degree plus weather at GWC in South Plainfield since the week before Memorial Day Weekend. The summer season got off to an auspicious start with a four day heat wave that greeted the unofficial start to summer. With the intense heat and humidity, something has had to give at times, and that means severe weather.

Like those summers of 2011 and 2012, there was plenty of strong to severe storms throughout New Jersey and the Mid-Atlantic this summer. Most notably for GWC was on July 18th and July 25th. Most recently, there were some strong storms during the overnight hours earlier this week. Storms on Wednesday morning brought down large tree limbs in Piscataway and South Plainfield.

While July was a very wet month with over six inches of rain at GWC in South Plainfield, August has been relatively dry. Much of the rain has come within the past week with 0.53 inches of rain coming from strong storms early on Wednesday morning. So far this August, there has only been 1.24 inches of rain at GWC in South Plainfield. For the year, there has been a total of 22.54 inches.


GWC Weather Journal–June 5, 2016–Severe Weather Threat in NJ

Posted in GWC News, GWC Severe Weather at 10:57 pm by gmachos

Here is a timeline of weather conditions at Greg’s Weather Center in South Plainfield, New Jersey during the day on Sunday as a severe weather event unfolded across the Mid-Alantic.

7:21 AM–Woke up to see that the skies were quite dark.

8:30 AM–Stepped outside, and skies were overcast, but no rain yet.

10:00 AM–Saw the latest update from the Garden State Weather page that indicated moderate CAPE, some shear, but not much in the way of rising air or vertical development yet due to the cloud cover. Severe weather still possible.

11:00 AM–Checked out the Storm Prediction Center web site, which indicated that there is still an enhanced risk of severe weather for much of New Jersey late this afternoon and evening. SPC did point out that the ingredients for severe weather aren’t quite there yet due to cloud cover, but there could still be a significant rain and wind event.

12:00 PM–Rain came through earlier and I posted an article in the blog on both the severe weather threat for New Jersey on Sunday, and the newly formed Tropical Depression Three in the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall came down fairly intensely in a short period of time. GWC WX Station rain gauge received 0.12 inches of rain.

1:35 PM–Just came back inside after going outside for a walk. Skies remained overcast, but no rain occurred during the walk. Air was very moist, thick, and humid. If there is some sun later this afternoon, things could get interesting.

2:04 PM–Just checked the local weather radar. Showers and storms currently in Central Pennsylvania with a narrow line of strong to severe storms leading the way near State College. The Weather Channel app indicates a large area of severe weather possible from New York to Georgia. Strong storms also possible from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast. TWC also indicates thunderstorm possible by 3:30 PM.

4:30 PM–Went outside to do a time lapse video, and noticed that the skies were becoming a bit more threatening. I also learned from the TWC app that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was in effect for Eastern Pennsylvania and all of New Jersey until 10:00 PM. Made sure that all my electronic devices had enough power available. I also got my weather radio ready.

6:00 PM–Several severe thunderstorm warnings came through for Western New Jersey. Also took a look outside at the latest conditions and shot some video. Clouds definitely moving at a pretty good clip overhead, and continue to become more impressive despite the lack of sunshine today.

7:00 PM–Severe Thunderstorm Warning in effect for Middlesex County. Set up the GoPro Cam on the roof of the house to take some video footage of the storm coming through. A few moments later, at about 7:10 PM, the storm began to come through with heavy rains and really strong gusts of wind. You couldn’t see anything outside because the window was awash with water from the rain and wind.

8:06 PM–Checked data on the GWC WX Station. The storm that came through brought about 0.41 inches of rain with it and at a rainfall rate of 1.63 inches per hour. Winds were about 35 miles per hour. Checked the debris outside the house and there were no trees branches or wires down as well as no structural damage. Only debris from fallen leaves. High temperature today was only 75 degrees, but the dew point peaked at 73. Total rainfall so far for the day has been 0.53 inches for a total of 0.56 inches so far this month, and 13.61 inches so far for this year.

9:20 PM–Just came in from taking a walk around a portion of the town. Didn’t see any serious damage only a few decently sized tree branches by Sacred Heart School, and some more flimsy tree branches down in my neighborhood. Lot of leaves down. My guess that the winds in my neighborhood and surrounding areas on the north side of town had only 40 mile per hour winds.


Lots of Wild Weather To Talk About for Sunday

Posted in GWC News, GWC Severe Weather, Model Forecasts, Storm Preparation, Storm Safety, Storm Track, Storm Warning, Tracking the Tropi at 12:37 pm by gmachos

Much of Garden State Under Enhanced Risk for Severe Storms; TD #3 Forms in Southern Gulf

On Saturday, I had posted several articles on things going on in and around the country weather wise including a potential severe weather event for the Mid-Atlantic United States and a developing tropical disturbance in the Northwestern Caribbean. Well, since my posts on those two entities, things have changed quite a bit with more of New Jersey falling under an enhanced risk of severe weather on Sunday and a new depression forming in the Southern Gulf of Mexico.

First, let’s take a look at the current situation with the severe weather potential in the Mid-Atlantic. We could be looking at the possibility of a very significant if not historic weather situation in places like Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. Now while I say that there is this potential for a significant severe weather episode for these locations, I must add that this is not set in stone, or at least yet. Over the last 24 hours, the Storm Prediction Center in Oklahoma has place a larger area under an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms including some big east coast cities such as Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington D.C.

The latest outlook provided by the SPC this morning indicates that there will be several clusters of storms developing anywhere from Georgia to New York with the highest chance for severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic States. Currently, much of the eastern third of the country is under either a marginal or enhanced risk of severe weather. With dew points peaking in the upper 60s to low 70s during the day across the Mid-Atlantic, and an approaching cold front that has a nice shortwave brining additional energy behind it, there is a chance for severe thunderstorms to develop. However, the most recent model data from this morning is indicating that the threat might not be as significant.

The 12z, or 8:00 AM run of the HRRR indicated that while the CAPE levels, or measure of potential energy critical for storms was moderate and there could be a decent amount of shear available for rotation, there is not enough rising motion in the atmosphere since the lapse rates aren’t running as high. Part of the reason for this is the fact that there has been significant cloud cover on Sunday morning across much of the Mid-Atlantic. The translation of all of this is that not all the ingredients are there for really severe weather to develop. However, while there may not be all the classic ingredients for supercell thunderstorm and tornado development, there still could be enough upper level energy for significant straight line winds to come through along with heavy rains.

Things could change though. Another model run is expected around 18z or 2:00 PM this afternoon, and by that time, things could clear out enough following the warm front passage for the sun to come out and heat things up. If the sun is able to do that, its energy could provide the spark that could alter the atmosphere enough to bring about a more significant severe weather event. The bottom line is that it is very important to pay attention to the weather and sky conditions if you are out today. Also, make sure that you are keeping track of the weather through resources on your mobile phone, Internet, television and weather radio. Speaking of your weather radio, you also may want to make sure that you have plenty of backup power available for all your devices in the home.

Remember, this could be, and I emphasize could be a very dangerous weather situation developing. The ingredients for it may not be there right now, but that could rapidly change if certain things occur. The fact that the Storm Prediction Center has placed places such as New Jersey under an enhanced risk is very significant since it is very rare, and it should be taken seriously. Another important weather system that we are watching is the newly formed Tropical Depression Three in the Gulf of Mexico, which emerged late this morning after being a disturbance in the Caribbean for the past several days. Tropical Storm Warnings are already up for portions of Florida with the development of this depression.

The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season is already off to a busy start with three tropical cyclones now after this depression formed. Currently, Tropical Depression Three is located 120 miles to the Northwest of Cozumel, Mexico in the Yucatan Peninsula, or about 550 miles to the Southwest of Tampa, Florida. Maximum sustained winds are at 35 miles per hour with gusts close to tropical storm force. The minimum central pressure is down to 1005 millibars or 29.68 inches of Hg. TD Three is presently moving slowly to the north at 8 miles per hour, and that motion is expected to shift more to the northeast with an increase in forward momentum.

The latest track forecast is calling for the depression to be in the area of the Big Bend region of Florida sometime on Monday afternoon thanks to a push from a storm system currently over Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning is currently in effect for that region of the Sunshine State from Indian Pass to Englewood. There will be several impacts to worry about for residents that could be impacted by this system: Rain, Surge, Wind, and Tornadoes. Rainfall is the biggest threat with affected areas expected to receive anywhere from 3 to 5 inches with isolated locations getting up to 8 inches. Storm surge could range from anywhere between one to three feet above normal. Tropical storm force winds of over 40 miles per hour are anticipated in the areas closest to landfall on Monday afternoon, and with any landfalling system, you have the possibility of tornadoes.

The intensity forecast is calling for the depression to become Tropical Storm Colin within the next 12 to 24 hours. Peak intensity in terms of wind strength is expected within 72 hours as a moderate strength tropical storm with 60 mile per hour winds before coming a post tropical system. All residents of Florida’s Big Bend region as well as inland areas in the Central and Northeastern part of the state along with Southern Georgia need to closely monitor the progress of this developing system.


Rough Weather Possible for Sunday Around Jersey

Posted in GWC News, GWC Severe Weather, Uncategorized at 11:13 am by gmachos

Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather for Southern Jersey; Marginal Risk for Rest of Garden State

After a wet month of May with 3.40 inches of rain for places like GWC in South Plainfield, there has been a bit of a lull at the start of June for much of the Garden State. We are already into the fourth day of the new month, and so far, only 0.03 inches of rain has been received by the GWC rain gauge here in Northern Middlesex County. However, all of that is expected to change when a storm system comes through on Sunday afternoon and evening.

As of this morning, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, portions of the Garden State will be under an enhanced risk for severe weather while others will be under a marginal risk. Usually, portions of New Jersey never get placed under an enhanced risk. It is usually a pretty big deal when the Garden State gets put under a slight risk. So the fact that the SPC is calling for an Enhanced Risk of severe storms for parts of Southern Jersey is a really big deal.

According to the Day Two Outlook from the SPC, the area under the enhanced risk of severe weather include: Eastern Virginia, Northeast North Carolina, Maryland, Delaware, Southeastern Pennsylvania, and Southern New Jersey. Meanwhile, areas from Georgia into the Mid-Atlantic including the rest of Pennsylvania and New Jersey are under a slight risk. Conditions that could occur in all of these areas include: Damaging straight line winds, a few tornadoes, and severe hail. There also could be a great deal of rainfall.

The cause of all of this is a negatively titled shortwave that is currently moving through the Ohio Valley and helping to cause trouble in the Appalachians and Ohio River Region, which is presently under an enhanced risk by the SPC for Saturday. The shortwave will push east and help intensify a low pressure system coming out of Eastern Canada and provide a temperature and moisture contrast with the relatively warm and humid air in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic to make things just enough unstable for severe weather in parts of Virginia, North Carolina, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey. Areas further north will get more isolated severe weather.

Looking at a recent forecast discussion and analysis from Garden State Weather, rainfall amounts could range from anywhere from a half inch or so in Atlantic City to close to over an inch and a half in Western Jersey near the Delaware River Valley. The rainfall could be a huge help though since despite the good amount of rain in May, there are many parts of the state that are still well below normal for this time of year. Middlesex County as a whole is averaging about 17.0 inches of rain so far this year, which is about an inch and a half below what it should be.

Other counties are much further below normal such as Monmouth, Somerset, Hunterdon, Warren, Morris, and Sussex, which all range from 2.5 to 4 inches below normal. Many of these places of key reservoirs such as Round Valley and Spruce Run in Hunterdon County or Manasquan Reservoir in Monmouth County. More urban counties such as Passaic, Bergen, Essex, Union and Hudson are also running several inches below normal for this time of year. All of this is in spite of the massive blizzard that took place toward the end of January.

So, try to enjoy the weekend, which could be rough at times, but on Sunday, keep an eye to the sky and watch for changing weather conditions, and stay tuned to local media and your NWS web site and social media pages for further developments with this potentially dangerous situation.


Remnants of Bill to Bring Heavy Rains to Jersey

Posted in GWC News, GWC Severe Weather, Model Forecasts, Storm Preparation, Storm Track, Storm Warning, Tracking the Tropi at 3:13 pm by gmachos

Tropical Storm’s Remains to Ride the Ring of Fire Weather Pattern into Garden State

Earlier this week, Tropical Storm Bill, the second named storm of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season, came ashore in Matagorda Island, Texas. Strengthening a bit just before landfall, the storm peaked with 60 mile per hour winds. However, the real story has been the rain. Heavy rains from the tropical system walloped much of the eastern half of Texas including major cities such as Houston and Dallas. Rains also spread into portions of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Missouri.

It has been several days since Bill made landfall in the Lone Star State, but its overall circulation has been holding together quite well. Looking on satellite and radar maps, you can see that what’s left of Bill is still clearly defined. These remnants are pushing east now. Much of them are in Missouri right now, but over the next several days, they will be headed on a trajectory that will take them into New Jersey by Saturday night and Sunday. Bill’s remnants are expected to combine with a warm front to produce rainfall amounts anywhere from 1 to 2 inches from Philadelphia to New York City according to WPIX 11 and FIOS1 Meteorologist Joe Cioffi.

During the course of the week, a Ring of Fire weather pattern has developed over the eastern half of the United States. High pressure, centered over the Southeastern U.S. has produced sweltering temperatures in places such as Jacksonville, Florida, where the temperature was 92 degrees with a heat index of 103 late Thursday morning. On Wednesday, it was even hotter with a high of 104 and a heat index of 118. Bill’s remaining convection as well as other showers and storms downstream, are riding around the periphery of that strong dome of high pressure.

Since Sunday night, the weather here in Central New Jersey has been unsettled. Clouds have dominated much of the week including on Thursday, where temperatures struggled to get into the upper 60s. These readings were after the mercury barely eclipsed the 80 degree mark on Wednesday at GWC in South Plainfield. On Friday though, the sun and a bit of heat has returned. The temperature climbed up to 84 degrees with the dew point peaking at 73 for a top heat index of 89. Skies have been sunny, but there have been quite a few cumulus clouds developing.

Taking a look at the model forecasts, both the GFS and ECMWF models have shifted a bit more to the south putting the heaviest rain right over Central and Southern Jersey. The NAM is still showing more of a northerly track with the heaviest rains occurring over Northwestern New Jersey as well as well Southeastern New York just to the north of New York City. The brunt of the weather is expected to be around breakfast time on Sunday morning with the remnant low situated right over Central Jersey. By the middle of Sunday afternoon, much of the convection, if not all of it, will have left the Garden State and pushed into Connecticut and Long Island.

Depending on the track of Bill’s remnants, there is a possibility that we could see some severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has put New Jersey as well as much of the Tri-State area under a marginal risk for severe weather. Currently, there is a Flash Flood Watch in effect for much of the Garden State from Saturday night at 8:00 PM to Sunday evening at 8:00 PM. The National Weather Service Office in Mount Holly, New Jersey is calling for anywhere from 2 to 3 inches with some places receiving as much as 4 inches of rainfall from Bill’s remnant low. After a mostly dry April and May, rainfall has picked up again at GWC in South Plainfield. Since May 31st, there has been 4.37 inches of rain at GWC.


GWC Storm Footage–September 8, 2014–Coastal Low Puts On A Show

Posted in GWC News, GWC Severe Weather, Storm Footage, YouTube Videos at 12:56 am by gmachos

Here is video footage of the show put on along the Jersey Shore and portions of Northeastern Middlesex and Monmouth counties by a coastal low in the Mid-Atlantic on the second Monday and Tuesday of September 2014.

During the course of the day on Monday, weather conditions became more cloudy, windy, and cooler here in the northern portions of Middlesex County as well as the rest of the Garden State. The dark grey clouds hovering closer to the ground along with some peeks of blue sky and sun made for a dramatic look to the skies over the Raritan Center section of Edison, New Jersey during the mid to late afternoon. Nevertheless, the rain is stayed to the south of our area. The bulk of the precipitation is spinning from North Carolina to Delaware.

Conditions were a lot rougher along the Jersey Shore at Waterfront Park in South Amboy. Winds had to be at least 30 to 40 mph. The combination of the gusty winds and easterly fetch along with the above normal tides thanks to the presence of the full moon, and the seas were rougher with whitecaps and more frequent waves.

Due to the cloud cover and gusty winds, temperatures and dew points have been down. The high temperature at Greg’s Weather Center in South Plainfield, New Jersey only reached 75 after a high of 78 on Sunday. At the time of this report, the thermometer at GWC read 71 degrees. The dew point has been ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s with the higher dew points in the range occurring in the morning. Winds did increase with sustained winds around 5 mph, and gusts up to 10 mph. They were also much stronger at the coast.

GWC Storm Footage–September 6, 2014–Thunderstorms Roll Through Northern Middlesex County

Posted in GWC News, GWC Severe Weather, GWC Video Report, Storm Footage, YouTube Videos at 12:32 am by gmachos

Here is video footage of thunderstorms moving through Northern Middlesex County on the first Saturday of September 2014. On this day, the temperature rose to 92 degrees, the hottest since July 2nd. Dew point at GWC climbed to 78 to produce a heat index of 106. Then, several waves of thunderstorms came through ahead of a cold front producing gusty winds, dangerous lightning, and heavy rain.

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