08.21.12
Posted in Storm Track, Commentary, Tracking the Tropics, Model Forecasts at 1:15 pm by gmachos
Depression Moving Rapidly Toward Lesser Antilles; Two Other Disturbances Still Being Watched
Recently, Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey encouraged people to head for the Jersey Shore over these final weeks of summer. Quite a contrast from the caution he had this time last summer as Hurricane Irene came up the coast. The governor may want to go back to that cautious approach because the tropics are becoming very active with a new tropical depression and another disturbance getting better organized.
The depression emerged from a well organized tropical disturbance in the Western Atlantic. This disturbance had been watched for the past several days, and had been gradually improving in organization. Now, the depression could become a tropical storm later today. Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to fly into the area this afternoon to see if the depression is actually organized enough to become a storm. As of the 11:00 AM Advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, Tropical Depression #9 is located 580 miles to the east of Guadeloupe in the Lesser Antilles.
The system is rapidly moving to the west at 20 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds are still at 35 miles per hour with gusts up to 45 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure is still fairly high at 1008 millibars or 29.77 inches of Hg. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe, St. Martin, St. Kitts, Nevis, Antigua, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, U.S. Virgin Islands, and the British Virgin Islands.
Looking at the latest forecast discussion from the NHC, there is a burst of convection or shower and thunderstorm activity in the southern semicircle of the system. A light amount of wind shear is occurring from the northeast of the depression, but that should diminish with time. With increasingly conducive upper level dynamics as well as adequate sea surface temperatures, the depression should become a storm within the next 12 hours, intensify to a hurricane by 48 hours, and be a Category Two Hurricane by landfall in 5 days.
The GFS model runs have been showing a low pressure system coming into Florida and the Southeastern coast by August 26 and 27th. The GFS is actually to the left of the ensemble forecast tracks. Some models are indicating that a shortwave will enhance a trough that will then dig southward into the Southeastern United States and the Gulf of Mexico causing the ridge over Florida and the Bahamas to erode and retreat. Meanwhile, there are still two other disturbances being monitored in the tropics while Gordon has become post-tropical.
The first disturbance, located some 425 miles to the Southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It has a well defined circulation and shower and thunderstorm activity are getting better organized according to the NHC. Moving to the far west into the Gulf of Mexico, there is another area of disturbed weather off the Northeastern coast of Mexico still producing poorly organized showers and thunderstorms. Close proximity to land is hindering development, but there is a 30 percent chance that the disturbance could become a tropical cyclone. Finally, Gordon is gone. The storm was declared post-tropical at the 5:00 PM Advisory on Monday when it was located some 370 miles to the East-Northeast of the Azores.
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08.20.12
Posted in Storm Track, Commentary, Tracking the Tropics at 4:20 pm by gmachos
One Disturbance Likely To Become Depression Or Storm; Other Two Slowly Developing
While Gordon passed east of the Azores this morning, three disturbances showed more signs of getting better organized in other parts of the Atlantic. One of the disturbances, which has been monitored over the past several days in the Eastern and Central Atlantic, has a better circulation, but shower and thunderstorm activity remains low. The National Hurricane Center has given this disturbance an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm over the next 48 hours.
Located about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, this disturbance, which is an area of low pressure, is still moving a bit fast at 20 to 25 miles per hour, and that might be what is holding this back from becoming a depression or storm. Thunderstorm activity needs to develop around the center of circulation, and if it moves too fast, the thunderstorms down get an opportunity to do that. Nevertheless, upper level dynamics and sea surface temperatures are favorable for more development.
Meanwhile, east of this low is another disturbance located about just to the south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in the Eastern Atlantic. This disturbance, a tropical wave has limited convection associated with it as it moves to the west between 15 to 20 miles per hour. Gradual development is expected with this wave, and the NHC gives it about a 30 percent chance of formation over the next 48 hours. Moving closer to home, another area of disturbed weather is bubbling up in the Gulf of Mexico.
This disturbance, which is associated with a surface trough, continues to fire up showers and thunderstorms, but it is very close to land so development will be difficult. However, if it moves out over the open warm waters of the Gulf, there is a chance that it could gradually develop. The NHC is also giving this disturbance a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. Finally, a look at Tropical Storm Gordon in the Northeastern Atlantic.
As of the 11:00 AM EDT Advisory from the NHC, Gordon had weakened some more to have winds of 65 miles per hour, gusts of up to 75 miles per hour, and a minimal central pressure of 990 millibars, or 29.23 inches of Hg. The storm was located 255 miles East of the Azores, and was moving to the East-Northeast at 16 miles per hour. The weather service on the Azores reported a pressure of 980 millibars, or 28.93 inches of Hg, a sustained wind of 53 knots or about 65 miles per hour, and a gust of 70 knots, or 80 miles per hour on Santa Maria Island.
Gordon continues to get weaker as it moves into cooler waters and encounters more southwesterly shear. The wind shear is exposing the center to the south of the deepest convection in the system. The forecast calls for Gordon to become post-tropical within 12 hours.
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08.19.12
Posted in Storm Track, Commentary, Storm Preparation, Storm Safety, Tracking the Tropics at 3:15 pm by gmachos
Storm Weakens After Peaking Near Major Hurricane Strength
Yesterday, the Atlantic almost had its first major hurricane of the season. Hurricane Gordon, which had become a hurricane during the early part of the day, suddenly ramped up from a minimal hurricane at 2:00 PM EDT to a Category Two storm with 110 mile per hour winds at 8:00 PM EDT. It was a jump of 30 miles per hour in wind speed in just six hours, and an increase in strength from a strong tropical storm to near major hurricane in about 30 hours. Minimum central pressure dropped some 32 millibars or 0.94 inches in 39 hours.
Gordon stayed on the cusp of becoming a Category Three Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale for nine hours from Saturday evening to early Sunday morning despite the marginal sea surface temperatures of 26 degrees Celsius, or about 79 degrees Fahrenheit. However, beginning at 5:00 AM on Sunday morning, Gordon began to gradually weaken with maximum sustained winds first dropping to 105 miles per hour, then 100 miles per hour by the 11:00 AM EDT Advisory, and then 90 miles per hour by the 2:00 PM EDT Advisory.
Despite the weakening, Hurricane Gordon is still expected to remain a hurricane by the time it makes its closest approach to the Eastern Azores on Monday. As of the most recent advisory, Gordon was located some 220 miles to the Southwest of Sao Miguel Island in the Azores. In addition to undergoing some strengthening since the last time I reported on the storm yesterday, Gordon has also picked up forward speed, and is now moving to the East-Northeast at 21 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure has risen 11 millibars, or 0.32 inches to 976 millibars, or 28.82 inches of Hg (Mercury).
The government of Portugal upgraded the Tropical Storm Warning that was in effect for the Central and Eastern Azores to a Hurricane Warning for those islands yesterday afternoon. Since that time, the warning has been amended to only include the Eastern Azores. The latest forecast discussion indicates that Gordon did have a clearly defined eye, but it had begun to become less visible during the late morning hours on Sunday. Wind shear as high as 30 knots or 35 miles per hour is also beginning to take effect on the storm by giving it a more baroclinic look with a tilt toward the east.
The NHC SHIPS forecast indicates that Gordon will weaken to below tropical storm strength by late Monday morning and then became extratropical or post-tropical by the same time on Tuesday. Elsewhere in the tropics, the disturbance in the Eastern Atlantic continues to get better organized, and the NHC has upgraded the probability of formation to 70 percent over the next 48 hours.
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08.18.12
Posted in Storm Track, Commentary, Tracking the Tropics at 7:25 am by gmachos
Tropical Wave In Eastern Atlantic Also Getting Better Organized
Activity in the Tropical Atlantic continued to ramp up on Friday with two named storms now including one hurricane while another disturbance appears to be getting its act together. Tropical Storm Helene emerged from the remnants of Tropical Depression Seven in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, Gordon, which had weakened slightly overnight on Thursday, became the season’s third hurricane in the Central Atlantic. Then, the tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic became better organized on Friday, and presently has a 30 percent chance of becoming a depression or storm within the next 48 hours.
The most immediate threat of the three is Helene, which became the eighth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season on Friday afternoon after Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the storm during the day. The storm has struggled with some weakening occurring over the past 12 hours. Maximum sustained winds at the moment are only minimal tropical storm force at 40 miles per hour with gusts up to 45 knots or 50 miles per hour. Pressure has risen slightly to 29.71 inches or 1006 millibars.
The most recent advisory from the National Hurricane Center shows a Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the Gulf coast of Mexico from Barra de Natula to La Cruz. The storm is not very large with tropical storm force winds only extending some 35 miles from the center. The storm will primarily be a rainmaker with rainfall amounts ranging from 4 to 8 inches in the affected areas. Storm surge levels are only expected to be one to two feet above normal. The latest forecast discussion indicates that Helene will not strengthen any further due to its close proximity to land, and it should make landfall within the next 24 hours.
Moving eastward into the North Central Atlantic, we have Gordon, which appeared to be close to becoming a hurricane on Thursday, but took a step back during the overnight hours into Friday morning. However, over the past 24 hours, Gordon has rebounded to become a hurricane as of the 5:00 AM EDT Advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. The hurricane, which is now located some 815 miles to the West-Southwest of the Azores, now has winds of minimal hurricane strength at 75 miles per hour with gusts of 90 miles per hour, and a minimum central pressure of 988 millibars or 29.18 inches of Hg.
The storm system is still moving to the east at 18 miles per hour, and should affect portions of the Azores by Sunday. In response, the government of Portugal has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Central and Eastern Azores. The latest forecast discussion from the NHC indicates that Gordon has become better organized over the past few hours with convection wrapping around the center, and an eye feature forming. The forecast also indicates that Gordon should remain a hurricane for the next 12 to 18 hours under favorable upper level wind conditions as well as marginal sea surface temperatures. By the time the storm reaches the Azores on Sunday, it will still be a strong tropical storm. Gordon should eventually weaken and become extratropical over the next several days as more shear and cooler ocean waters begin to take its toll.
Finally, a bit further to the south and east in the Eastern Atlantic, Hurricaneville continues to monitor a disturbance that moved off the coast of Africa over the past day and a half. Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized and concentrated with this wave. Sea surface temperatures are still not quite there in that part of the Atlantic yet, but slow development is possible as the wave heads to the west at 15 to 20 miles per hour. The NHC gives this wave a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. Taking a look at the Atlantic season to date, there have been 8 depressions, 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and no major hurricanes. So, despite the gloomy outlook early on, and the threat of an El Nino, the Atlantic has pretty much equaled the pace it had this time last season.
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08.17.12
Posted in Storm Track, Commentary, Tracking the Tropics at 10:49 am by gmachos
Gordon Weakens Slightly Overnight; Remnants Of TD #7 Getting Better Organized In Gulf
The tropics continue to heat up on this Friday morning. Gordon is still churning in the Central Atlantic although it weakened a bit overnight. The remnants of what was Tropical Depression Seven continue to get better organized in the extreme Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and a new tropical wave just came off the coast of Africa. First, we are going to take a look at the remnants of Tropical Depression Seven since that is becoming the more immediate threat.
Shower and thunderstorm activity has been on the increase in the area of TD #7’s remnants this morning. Still looking for a defined circulation, but sea surface temperatures and upper level winds are favorable for these remnants to regenerate. It has been almost a week since Tropical Depression Seven faded from view in the Eastern Caribbean. These remnants continued to travel westward across the Caribbean and into Central America before re-emerging in the Bay of Campeche region of the Gulf.
The GFS model did a great job of projecting this earlier in the week. A number of its model runs pointed to these remnants regenerating into something more significant around the time of August 20th. So, these remnants may be a bit ahead of schedule. Looking at the GFS now, the 0Z run showed something spinning up in the Western Gulf, and hugging the Gulf coast of Mexico for several days before moving inland on August 23rd. Meanwhile, the 06z run showed the remnants spinning around the Western Gulf until finally moving into Northern Mexico on August 22nd.
The latest GFS model run, the 12z is still indicating a lot of moisture in the Western Gulf through August 24th, but again the remnants move into Northern Mexico. Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to fly into the disturbed area this afternoon. The National Hurricane Center has given the remnants a 70 percent chance of forming into a tropical cyclone within 48 hours. Returning to Gordon, the storm slackened a bit last night with its maximum sustained winds decreasing to 65 miles per hour while wind gusts dropped to 75 miles per hour, and the minimum central pressure increased several millibars to 998, or 29.47 inches of Hg.
However, the storm is still a threat to the Azores. On its current track, Gordon should reach the Azores by Sunday night, and it still could strengthen into the season’s third hurricane before beginning to encounter cooler waters. Finally, we have a tropical wave that just departed the West Coast of Africa within the past 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms in the area of the wave are still disorganized, and environmental conditions are still not really favorable for development. So, tropical formation with this wave will be slow to occur. The NHC gives this wave a 10 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
Taking a look at a bit of tropical climatology, we are now in the middle of August, and sea surface temperatures usually begin to pick up around the basin. Looking at the latest sea surface temperature map, the Gulf of Mexico has the warmest in the basin right now at around 30 degrees centigrade or about 86 degrees, which is well over the threshold of 80 degrees for tropical development. Moving out along the East Coast, temperatures are hovering right around the 80 degree mark from the Outer Banks on down to the East Coast of Florida. There is a plume of cooler water off the Northeast Florida coast while warmer water lurks to the east along the Gulf Stream. Heading out into the Atlantic, sea surface temperatures drop significantly when you get a few hundred miles east of the islands. So, we are still not there yet for the classic Cape Verde storms.
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08.16.12
Posted in Storm Track, Commentary, Tracking the Tropics at 10:58 pm by gmachos
Strengthens Some On Thursday; Could Become Hurricane On Friday
The Tropical Atlantic continues to heat up with activity as we continue toward the statistical peak of the season. The remnants of Tropical Depression Seven moved through Central America, and is now situated in the extreme southern portion of the Gulf of Mexico where it could become a tropical storm or depression over the next 48 hours.
Meanwhile, another disturbance grew into the seventh named storm of the season as Tropical Storm Gordon first emerged as a tropical depression just under 600 miles to the East-Southeast of Bermuda on Wednesday afternoon. Within twelve hours, Gordon was born and gradually strengthened during the day to the point where it was a strong tropical storm with sustained winds at 65 miles per hour and gusts up to minimal hurricane force as of 5:00 PM EDT on Thursday.
The good news is that Gordon is no threat to the United States, or any land mass at the moment. Moving to the East at 17 miles per hour, the storm is only a threat to the shipping lanes. However, the five day forecast indicates that it could be a threat to the Azores in the Eastern Atlantic by Sunday afternoon. Now, Gordon is just below hurricane strength as of the 11:00 PM EDT Advisory from the NHC with sustained winds of 70 miles per hour and gusts up to 80 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure is 995 millibars, or 29.38 inches of Hg (Mercury). Since becoming a tropical cyclone on Wednesday afternoon, the storm has dropped some 18 millibars, or 0.53 inches.
The storm is showing good banding and a healthy outflow on the satellite imagery, and dry air and wind shear have not been factors yet. The latest forecast discussion indicates that Gordon will be a hurricane over the next 12 hours, and peak in intensity by 24 hours. The storm should remain a hurricane for up to 24 hours after that before starting to weaken in cooler waters. Gordon is forecast to become post-tropical within four days. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system.
Returning to the remnants of TD #7, the National Hurricane Center has indicated that activity has increased and organization has improved with the disturbance, and it is in an area that is more favorable for development. There is a 40 percent chance of tropical formation over the next two days, and Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to fly into the area tomorrow to investigate the disturbance.
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08.12.12
Posted in Storm Track, Commentary, Eastern Pacific, Tracking the Tropics at 6:54 pm by gmachos
Ernesto Re-Emerges In East Pacific As Hector; GFS Runs Showing TD #7 Becoming Problem For Gulf Next Weekend
The tropics continue to percolate with activity in both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific on this Sunday afternoon. What was left of Ernesto made it to the Eastern Pacific, and reconstituted itself as a tropical depression that was later classified as Tropical Storm Hector. The storm, which regained depression status late Saturday morning.
Ten hours later, Hector emerged as the eighth named storm of the 2012 Eastern Pacific Season. The EPAC, which had recently endured a bit of a dry spell in activity for three weeks, made a bit of a comeback with the development of Hurricane Gilma late last week, and now Hector. The Eastern Pacific has had six straight hurricanes develop prior to Hector, but this latest storm is not forecast to become a hurricane according to the latest forecast discussion from the National Hurricane Center.
Meanwhile, over in the Atlantic, there was Tropical Depression #7 later in the week and into the early part of Saturday. However, Hurricane Hunter aircraft, which flew into the storm, found that there was no closed circulation with the system, and reclassified it as an open wave. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook indicates only a 10 percent chance of regeneration into a tropical cyclone over the next two days. Upper level winds aren’t favorable for development in the area of the Caribbean that the wave is currently in right now.
Further to the east in the Central Atlantic, some 800 miles to the West-Northwest of the Cape Verde Islands, there has been another disturbance moving west-northwestward at 20 miles per hour. Shower activity has been limited with this disturbance, and development will be slow. Sea surface temperatures in the Central and Eastern Atlantic aren’t quite there yet for tropical depressions, storms, and hurricanes to develop.
Looking ahead though, the latest GFS model runs are indicating that what is left of TD #7 will progress across the Caribbean and eventually get into the Gulf of Mexico later in the week. The model indicates that the storm will intensify to some extent in the Gulf and make an impact somewhere along the Gulf Coast from Brownsville, Texas to the Alabama and Mississippi border by this time next Sunday. The later model runs had a weaker, but still significant system making landfall near New Orleans and the Mississippi and Alabama coasts.
Another feature that the later runs of the GFS develops around the time of August 27th and August 28th is a significant storm in the Western Atlantic to the north of the islands. This system is vast and deep by 384 hours. Keep in mind though that runs of the GFS mid-week last week indicated a significant storm for the East Coast around August 20th to August 22nd, and now it is indicating a significant feature in the Gulf during the same time frame.
One thing that the model has been consistently pointing out is increased moisture in the eastern half of the United States, which needs the rain. A significant percentage of the annual corn crop in the Midwest has taken a big hit from the historic drought there, and that is going to impact the price of many things that we buy in the stores. Recently, The National Weather Service had indicated above average precipitation this month in many areas impacted by the drought.
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08.11.12
Posted in Storm Track, Commentary, Tracking the Tropics at 4:18 pm by gmachos
Latest Threat In Atlantic Degenerates To Open Wave Near Windward Islands
As what was Hurricane Ernesto made its second landfall in Mexico, and subsequently dissipated over the terrain of the southern portion of that country, a new threat had emerged in the Central Atlantic. A tropical wave in the Central Atlantic had acquired enough characteristics to be classified as Tropical Depression #7 on Thursday afternoon.
For the next day and a half, the depression moved westward toward the Windward Islands as it appeared to follow a track similiar to Ernesto’s. However, the tropical cyclone didn’t do much strengthening. Maximum sustained winds remained at 35 miles per hour for the next 36 hours. Wind gusts also stayed status quo at 45 miles per hour with pressure only dropping to 1008 millibars, or 29.77 inches of Hg.
On Saturday morning, Hurricane Hunter aircraft took its first look at the depression as it moved closer to the Windward Islands. What the researchers found was not impressive. The sustained winds were still at 35 miles per hour. Most importantly though, while there were shifts in wind direction near the surface, there was no closed circulation. As a result, TD #7 was reclassified as a tropical wave and the warnings that were in effect for Guadeloupe, Martinique, Dominica, St. Lucia, Barbados, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines were discontinued.
A significant factor that hindered the progress of Tropical Depression #7 was its forward speed. When it was first classified as a tropical depression on Thursday, it was moving at 20 miles per hour. The storm didn’t slow down either. Instead, it gradually ramped up to speeds of 25 miles per hour by Saturday morning. Whenever a fledgling system like this moves at such a fast pace, the circulation often outruns the convection and nothing is able to coalesce around the center.
Ernesto had a similar problem when it moved through the Eastern Caribbean this time last week. Once the storm was able to slow down some, it was able to gradually get better organized and strengthen into the season’s second hurricane. We’ll have to see if the same holds true for the remnants of TD #7. There is also another feature in the Atlantic, but it doesn’t have a lot of shower and thunderstorm activity associated with it right now, and only has a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
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08.08.12
Posted in Storm Track, Commentary, Storm Warning, Tracking the Tropics at 9:52 pm by gmachos
More Southerly Track Making It Tough For Storm To Re-Intensify Into Hurricane
Despite weakening for much of the day today, Tropical Storm Ernesto has held together fairly well considering it was moving over land for about 18 hours. Maximum sustained winds decreased to 45 miles per hour during the early afternoon, but the circulation has stayed pretty much intact. There is still a good deal of shower and thunderstorm activity that is producing heavy rains over Mexico and Central America, but there is weakness in the usually stronger Northeastern quadrant, and that is because of the intrusion of dry air.
Within the past several hours, the storm has meandered west toward the extreme southern portion of the Bay of Campeche region of the Gulf of Mexico. The state of Campeche in Mexico itself has been lashed with torrential rains and gusty winds from the storm. Ciudad del Carmen right along the coast along the southeastern part of the Bay of Campeche reported sustained winds of 46 miles per hour with gusts in excess of 58 miles per hour. As of the 4:00 PM EDT Advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, the storm was upgraded slightly to have winds of 50 miles per hour.
Currently, the storm is located 20 miles to the East-Northeast of Ciudad del Carmen so the storm is now over water. Winds remain at 50 miles per hour with gusts up to 65 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure has dropped slightly to 994 millibars, or 29.35 inches of Hg. Ernesto is presently moving to the west at 7 miles per hour so the system has slowed a great deal since it made landfall. The storm has resumed a more westward track after jogging a bit to the south earlier today.
The latest infrared imagery also indicates strengthening taking place over the past several hours with the re-development of deeper convection as indicated by the dark reds on the cloud tops. The question is how long will Ernesto stay over water. Due to its close proximity to land, and a more southerly track than earlier indicated, there is not much room for error for the storm. On the other hand though, the storm is moving more slowly due to an erosion of the upper level ridge to the north of it, and that might be able to still by the storm some extra time to regenerate. Another thing to note about this region of the Atlantic Basin, the Bay of Campeche is known historically to have storms that either move slowly or become stationary due to a lack of steering currents.
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center as indicated by the 5:00 PM EDT Discussion, showed that the storm should intensify to a strong tropical storm with 70 mile per hour winds, but while the forecast noted the current state of organization, warm waters, and favorable upper level winds in the area of the storm, the NHC stopped short of saying it would intensify into a hurricane again. The forecast track has the storm back over land by Thursday afternoon some 90 to 100 miles to the Southeast of Veracruz along the Gulf coast of Mexico.
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Posted in Storm Track, Commentary, Eastern Pacific, Tracking the Tropics at 9:08 pm by gmachos
Strong Tropical Storm Just Below Hurricane Strength
The Atlantic Basin was not the only one that was quiet recently. The Eastern Pacific theater was also dormant. For a period of 21 days from the last advisory on Hurricane Fabio to the first advisory on Tropical Storm Gilma, there was no real activity, which is somewhat unusual considering more was expected in the EPAC this year. The Atlantic had been quiet for 34 days before Ernesto stirred up this time last week.
Nevertheless, Gilma is now the story in the Eastern Pacific although there is another area of disturbed weather to the east of our tropical storm, and the National Hurricane Center gives it about a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone of some sort within the next 48 hours. Gilma emerged on Tuesday, and rapidly developed into a strong tropical storm that has been on the cusp of hurricane strength for much of the day on Wednesday.
Currently, Gilma is located some 695 miles to the Southwest of the tip of Baja California in Western Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are at 70 miles per hour with gusts in excess of 75 knots or 85 miles per hour. Barometric pressure in the center of circulation is estimated to be 989 millibars or 29.21 inches of Hg (Mercury). The storm is moving to the West-Northwest at 10 miles per hour, and it is not a threat to any land masses at this time. So, no watches or warnings are in effect.
Looking at the 5:00 PM Forecast Discussion from the NHC, the satellite representation of the storm has been the subject of slightly differing opinions. One camp has the estimated intensity at 65 knots while the other has it at 55 knots. So, the NHC made a compromise between the two with its current strength at 60 knots or 70 miles per hour. The intensity forecast is calling for Gilma to strengthen to a hurricane, but not much stronger than a minimal one of 75 miles per hour. Sea surface temperatures are expected to get progressively colder as the storm moves further west with time.
Forecast track has it continuing slowly westward and curving more northward over the next three to five days. With the development of Gilma, there have been seven named storms in the Eastern Pacific. Five of them so far have been hurricanes, and we could have a sixth with Gilma. Of those five hurricanes to date, two of them (Bud and Emilia) became major hurricanes of Category Three strength.
Meanwhile, on the Atlantic Basin activity scoreboard, there have been six named storms and two of them have become hurricanes. None of the hurricanes have been major with Ernesto being the strongest to date with 85 mile per hour winds at peak. Both basins have not had a depression that hasn’t become a tropical storm. The Atlantic has been the most active over the past week with two storms forming.
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