Karen Fizzles Before Even Coming Ashore in Gulf
Perhaps history will show that Tropical Storm Karen was the epitome of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season. As a storm typical of the season, Karen had a a lot of potential, but ultimately was done in by hostile environmental factors. Dry air and wind shear did this storm in much like it had killed Chantal, Dorian, Erin, and Gabrielle earlier in the season. Karen began falling apart as the week ended last week, and by mid-morning on Sunday, it had been downgraded to a remnant low.
The storm did its best to hang on for a good 24 to 36 hours starting on Friday evening, but the odds against it were too great. A strong westerly shear over the Western and Central Gulf blew at about 25 miles per hour, and totally separated the brunt of the convection associated with Karen away from its center of circulation. With that separation occurring, there was no room for growth and development. Being a weaker storm, Karen took a more westerly track towards Louisiana before running out of gas some 85 miles to the southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
At its peak, Karen closed in on becoming the season’s third hurricane with 65 mile per hour winds. By the time it was reclassified as a remnant low on Sunday, the winds had decreased to 30 miles per hour. Pressures with the storm had risen some 10 millibars. The European model was right on with Karen. It had indicated that the tropical system would take a more westerly track towards Louisiana as a weaker storm. Many forecasts had followed the GFS thinking of a more easterly track into Alabama and the Florida Panhandle as a more powerful storm. Another result from Karen fizzling was less significant rainfall from the powerful storm system that moved into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Monday afternoon and evening.
Towards the end of last week, GWC had posted about the possibility of significant rains from the combination of the powerful storm system that brought historic snowfall to the Black Hills section of South Dakota and EF4 tornadoes to Nebraska and Iowa, and what was left of Karen. Projections at that time had indicated that the one-two punch would bring anywhere from 1.5 to 2.5 inches with isolated areas seeing as much as 4 inches. However, Karen’s remnants stayed more to the west, weakened, and were easily absorbed by the large frontal system. Instead of tracking northward into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, Karen’s remains ended up pushing across Florida, and sparking thunderstorms there.
Consequently, there was very little rain on Monday in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Here at GWC in South Plainfield, New Jersey, there was only 0.40 inches of rain. The rainfall came in several rounds of brief downpours as the leading edge of the front pushed through. There were some gusty winds as high as 50 miles per hour. Other towns in New Jersey had more significant weather. Paramus, New Jersey in Bergen County had an EF1 tornado. with winds as high as 100 miles per hour. Places in West Jersey such as Hunterdon County had severe thunderstorms with winds up to 60 miles per hour.
With Karen fizzling out, the 2013 season remains below average in terms of the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes. While there have been 11 depressions and 11 named storms, there have only been two hurricanes, and no major hurricanes. Most importantly though, there have been minimal impacts on the United States coastline. There is still another 53 days left in the season so there’s still time for something to flare up. As a matter of fact, a new disturbance is in the Eastern Atlantic, but it is currently not in an area favorable for development this time of year.
Storm Loses Some Punch As It Becomes Ragged and Disheveled in Gulf
Tropical Storm Karen has been fighting a valiant fight since it formed on Thursday morning, but the odds may be just too much for the storm to overcome. While a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Gulf Coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Destin, Florida, Karen weakened slightly to just have maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour with gusts to 70 mph. Minimum central pressure has risen slightly to 1003 millibars, or 29.62 inches of Hg.
With tropical storm force winds extending some 140 miles from the center of circulation as of the 8:00 AM EDT Advisory from the National Hurricane Center, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from west of Grand Isle, Louisiana to Morgan City, Louisiana including the City of New Orleans, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Pontchartrain. A Tropical Storm Watch is also in effect for portions of the Florida Panhandle from east of Destin, Florida to Indian Pass, Florida.
As it pushes ahead to the North-Northwest at 10 miles per hour some 275 miles to the South-Southwest of the Mouth of the Mississippi River, Karen’s appearance looks much more ragged and disorganized than it did yesterday, and it was a lopsided storm at best before then with the bulk of its convection to the east of its center of circulation. The storm has also slowed down a bit from its forward speed of 13 miles per hour on Thursday. A turn to the right is expected to begin on Friday.
Karen is still over very warm water in the Gulf, but it continues to battle dry air and shear to the north and west of it. The wind shear affecting Karen is as high as 20 to 25 knots, or about 25 to 30 miles per hour. The intensity forecast is problematic at best due to the interaction between Karen, dry air, westerly shear, and a small upper level trough. The strengthening of this system is also dependent on whether or not it begins to make its more easterly turn over water. Some models such as the Canadian model indicate that the turn to the east will not occur until after landfall in Louisiana while the GFS has a much more dramatic turn to the right.
Right now, the European model calls for a 10 millibar drop in pressure with Karen after the turn to the right while the GFS, HWRF, and GFDL indicate much more significant deepening. Regardless of how much it strengthens, the biggest concern with this system will be the rain with rainfall amounts anticipated to be anywhere between 4 to 8 inches with isolated areas receiving as much as a foot. This much rain is the last thing that areas in the Southeast need after a very wet summer with a rainfall surplus of over a foot. Storm surges along the Gulf Coast could be as high as 3 to 5 feet.
All residents along the Gulf Coast from Morgan City to Tampa should continue to monitor the situation with Karen, and make necessary preparations.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Is Expected To Dissipate In A Couple Days
With all concerns focused on Tropical Storm Karen in the Gulf over the past couple days, what was left of Tropical Storm Jerry faded away in the Central Atlantic. After becoming a depression on Wednesday night, Jerry continued its downward spiral on Thursday as it became a remnant low by late afternoon.
Forming as a depression in the Central Atlantic late last Saturday night, Jerry became the tenth named storm of the season on Monday, but didn’t really strengthen much during its life. The storm peaked with 50 mile per hour winds on Monday night, but began to weaken in the face of hostile atmospheric conditions in its vicinity. Winds dropped to minimal storm strength on Tuesday night as it meandered some 1,300 miles to the east of Bermuda.
Jerry capped a modest month of September by Tropical Atlantic activity standards. Five depressions, four named storms, and two hurricanes formed during the statistical peak month of the season. However, there were no major hurricanes, and none of the systems made landfall in the United States. With the development of Karen in the past 24 hours, there have been 11 depressions, 11 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and no major hurricanes.
The bulk of the season is behind us now, but there still remains a secondary statistical peak in October, and another 58 days left in the season.
Remnants of Newly Formed Tropical Storm Could Bring Much Needed Soaking Rains
Within the past hour on Thursday morning, Tropical Storm Karen emerged in the Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Hunter aircraft detected a closed circulation with the system as well as strong thunderstorms with winds up to 60 miles per hour. While there is disagreement among the forecast models on how strong it will be and where it will go, there is a likelihood that what is left from Karen will bring some significant rains into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic next week.
Located in the Southeastern Gulf just off the coast of the Northern Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico, Karen already has winds of 60 miles per hour, and is forecast to make landfall anywhere between Morgan City, Louisiana and Indian Pass, Florida sometime this weekend. Beyond that though, the storm will be a rainmaker as it combines with a winter storm coming out of the Rockies. Winter Storm Atlas as it is called by the Weather Channel is bringing a dual threat of heavy snows in the higher elevations of the Rockies and severe storms and possible tornadoes in the upper Midwest states of Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin.
The official five day track from the National Hurricane Center has Karen coming ashore in the area of Mobile, Alabama early Sunday afternoon, and then pushing to the Northeast across Georgia and the Southern Appalachians on Monday before moving into the Mid-Atlantic early Tuesday morning. The combination of the two storms will bring a good deal of moisture to New Jersey as well as the rest of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. It will be welcome rain though. Over the last 45 days here at GWC in South Plainfield, there have been 35 days of no measurable rainfall. Twenty-six of those days have come in the past month. Only 2.99 inches of rain has fallen here in the last month and a half.
The GFS indicates that rain will start falling on Monday morning, and become very heavy during the evening hours into early Tuesday morning. Rainfall amounts could be as high as two inches by the time the remnants of Karen and the leftovers from the winter storm out west move out of the area. The European model has the remnants combining with the winter storm out west, and moving into our region by Monday night.
Watches Issued for Portions of Gulf Coast; Storm Already Has 60 MPH Winds
Almost 18 years to the day, a storm has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, and could deliver a blow to the Northeastern Gulf Coast. Within the past few minutes, the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has classified the disturbance in the Southeastern Gulf as Tropical Storm Karen. The storm already has maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour with gusts up to 70 mph, and a minimum central pressure of 1004 millibars, or 29.65 inches of Hg.
Currently, Karen is located some 500 miles south of the Mouth of the Mississippi River, and the storm is moving to the North-Northwest at 13 miles per hour. Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been flying in and around the storm since yesterday, and finally detected a closed circulation just to the north of the Northern Yucatan coast. The storm is a lopsided or asymmetrical system with the bulk, if not all of its convection, to the east of the center of circulation. However, high pressure aloft has developed over the storm, and sea surface temperatures in this region are always very warm. So, further strengthening is not out of the question. There is some discrepancy though on how strong Karen will become and where it will go.
The reason for the disagreement between the various forecast models such as the European and the GFS is because there is dry air pushing into the Western Gulf to the west of the storm. The models are in general agreement that Karen will move around the periphery of a mid-level ridge ahead of a mid-level trough. But they differ on the exact track into the Gulf Coast. The European has Karen going further west into Louisiana and Southern Mississippi while the GFS has the storm taking a more easterly track into Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. The discrepancy in these tracks has an impact on how strong Karen will be at landfall.
With the European model’s more western track, Karen moves into the drier air moving into the Western Gulf, and comes ashore on Saturday as a minimal tropical storm or depression. On the other hand, the GFS’ more eastern track has the storm over more moist air in place in the Eastern Gulf, and as a result, Karen is a much stronger storm. As a result of this discrepancy in the models, the GFS has put Karen as a minimal hurricane within 36 hours, and has posted both hurricane and tropical storm watches for the Gulf coast. This could be a dangerous situation developing in the Gulf. We could have a scenario very similar to Hurricane Opal in 1995.
Opal formed further west in the Bay of Campeche before rapidly developing into a high end Category Four Hurricane, and picking up forward speed before crashing into the Florida Panhandle on October 5th. Another similarity between Opal in 1995 and this storm is that the country is distracted with other news headlines. Back in 1995, the country was gripped with the suspense of the verdict in the O.J. Simpson trial while this time, the nation is dealing with a federal government shutdown that has even closed down some NOAA web sites. The NHC and NWS are not affected by the shutdown since they both help protect life and property.
Karen is aiming at a portion of the Gulf Coast that has finally recovered from the impacts of Hurricane Ivan in 2004 and Hurricane Dennis in 2005. So, a significantly stronger storm for this region later in the weekend would not be ideal. Up to this point in the season, there have been 11 depressions and 11 named storms, but only two hurricanes and no major hurricanes. Could that change with Karen. It is very possible that this storm could become the season’s third hurricane, but can it become the first major hurricane of 2013. Too early to tell.
Could Impact the Central Gulf This Weekend; Jerry Meanders In Central Atlantic
The Tropical Atlantic has been relatively quiet for much of this season. Yes, there has been 10 named storms already, which is still ahead of the average pace, but there has been only two hurricanes, and most importantly, no major hurricanes, and no landfalling systems.
Normally, September is an active month, and this year, it was more active than August was. There were five depressions, four named storms, and the season’s only two hurricanes this past month. Nevertheless, the activity by September standards were still rather tepid. There is still two months officially remaining in the 2013 season, and there is usually a second peak in tropical activity during the month of October.
Looking around the tropics on this late Wednesday afternoon, there are a couple of trouble spots. Tropical Storm Jerry is still churning in the Central Atlantic. As of the 5:00 PM EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Jerry is located some 1080 to the West-Southwest of the Azores. Maximum sustained winds remain at 40 miles per hour with gusts up to 50 miles per hour while minimum central pressure is still high at 1009 millibars, or 29.80 inches of Hg.
The storm is moving to the Northeast at 7 miles per hour, and that general motion is expected over the next few days with an increase in forward speed. Little change in strength is expected over the next 72 hours, and the storm is expected to become post-tropical within four days. A larger concern lurks in the Northwestern Caribbean as an area of disturbed weather that has been monitored over the past several days, is becoming better organized, and could be the next storm in the Atlantic.
Located some several hundred miles from the Yucatan Peninsula, the disturbance has looked more impressive over the past several hours as showers and thunderstorms have become better organized. Chances of this disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours have increased from 40 percent on Wednesday morning to 70 percent on Wednesday afternoon, and up to 80 percent in the next five days. A depression could form at any time according to the latest tropical outlook from the NHC. Currently, the disturbance is in a favorable environment for development. Sea surface temperatures in the Western Caribbean are always very warm, and there is very little in the way of shear.
Taking a look at the long range forecast for this disturbance, the storm is expected to impact somewhere along the Central Gulf Coast over this coming weekend. However, the cyclone is not expected to intensify into a major storm by the time it reaches the Gulf because of strong upper level winds developing over the region by the time the storm comes ashore. Regardless, residents along the Gulf should closely monitor the progress of this system as it heads into the region later in the week.
Gabrielle and Humberto Dissipate, but Humberto Could Regenerate in a Couple Days
The Atlantic Tropics continue to get interesting as we now have our second hurricane of the season. The other day, I had mentioned in the blog that Ingrid could be in the making. Well, the storm not only came to fruition, and rapidly intensified into a minimal hurricane in the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche region in the Gulf of Mexico.
Ingrid first became a depression on Thursday afternoon, and began its onslaught on Mexico with torrential rainfall. Gaining more and more energy from the bath water of the Gulf, Ingrid strengthened more and became the ninth named storm of the season on Friday morning. The intensification didn’t stop there either. Thirty hours later, the storm grew into a hurricane. Located some 195 miles to the East of Tuxpan Mexico and 275 miles to the Southeast of La Pesca, Mexico, Ingrid still continues off slowly to the north at 7 miles per hour.
As of the 4:00 PM CDT Advisory from the National Hurricane Center, maximum sustained winds with Ingrid are at 75 miles per hour with gusts in excess of 90 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure has dropped to 987 millibars, or 29.15 inches of Hg (Mercury). The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Mexican East Coast from Cabo Rojo to La Pesca, and a Tropical Storm Warning from north of La Pesca to Bahia Algodones and south of Cabo Rojo to Tuxpan. All warnings issued south of Tuxpan to Cotzacoalos have been discontinued.
The big story with Ingrid is the forward motion. The reason I say that is because of two things. First and foremost, slow moving tropical systems means lots and lots of rainfall. When there is torrential rainfall that goes on for long periods of time over this part of the world, you have to worry about life threatening floods and mudslides. Right now, Ingrid is expected to produce around 15 inches of rain for portions of Eastern Mexico with some isolated areas getting over two feet of rain. The other reason that the slow movement is critical is simply because of where Ingrid is located.
As mentioned earlier, Ingrid is still over very warm water in the Bay of Campeche region of the Gulf of Mexico. With sea surface temperatures as high as 85 degrees coupled in with the fact that upper levels winds in this area are usually light, the ingredients are there for some significant, if not explosive development. The latest discussion from the National Hurricane Center in Miami indicates that a mid-level ridge is expected to establish itself over the Southern U.S., and the clockwise flow around that ridge will help turn Ingrid into eastern Mexico. However, forecast models diverge on the timing of all of this.
The NHC discussion points out that the GFS solution has Ingrid moving to shore the slowest, and making landfall in about 60 hours time. The official NHC guidance indicates a landfall within 48 hours. The 48 to 60 hour window is still a lot of time when you are talking about a tropical cyclone in a very conducive environment. Remember, a little more than 48 hours ago, Ingrid wasn’t even on the map, and now it is a Category One Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Another 48 to 60 hours in this very supportive environment could bring about even more strenghtening. Right now, the NHC has Ingrid strengthening to an 85 mile per hour hurricane, but it is quite possible that the storm could reach Category Two or even Cat Three levels.
We’ll have to see how everything shakes out with Ingrid. For now, residents along the East Mexican coast should complete the necessary preparations, take cover and evacuate if possible. Residents in South Texas should monitor the progress of this storm.
Humberto Becomes a Hurricane Just in Time To Avoid Record
Only hours away from surpassing the mark set in 2002 by Hurricane Gustav for the longest wait an Atlantic Season had for its first hurricane, the 2013 season avoided the dubious distinction as Humberto became the season’s first Atlantic hurricane. It is not really that surprising that Humberto became a hurricane. It wasn’t a question of if, but when with this storm, and when was the key word in terms of the record books.
Humberto was classified as a hurricane on during the 5:00 AM AST Wednesday morning advisory. The 2013 season was just hours away from setting a new record for the longest wait for a first hurricane. Back in 2002, Hurricane Gustav became a hurricane on September 11th at 12:00 UTC, or about 8:00 AM EDT. Humberto has been gradually strengthening throughout the day on Wednesday. Winds have continued to increase from 75 miles per hour early this morning to 85 miles per hour in the 5:00 PM advisory.
Currently, Humberto is located some 360 miles to the West-Northwest of the Cape Verde Islands in the Eastern Atlantic. As forecasted, the hurricane has made a turn to the right, and is now heading north at 12 miles per hour. Wind gusts are now up to 105 miles per hour while the minimum central pressure in the eye has dropped to 986 millibars, or 29.12 inches of Hg. Keep in mind that all of this information is based on interpretations from satellite imagery since reconnaissance aircraft are not in range to fly into the storm right now. According to the forecast discussion from the National Hurricane Center, Humberto is expected to continue strengthening for the next 12 hours or so, and then begin a gradual weakening trend through five days.
Within the next 24 hours, Humberto will begin moving into cooler waters and also encounter more wind shear. Both of these ingredients are very hostile to hurricane and tropical storm development. The storm is expected to continue heading north for about the next 24 hours, and then gradually starting turning to the west again with a more northwest track on Thursday afternoon followed by a due west track on Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile, Gabrielle made its closest approach to Bermuda on Wednesday, and has weakened from a 60 mph tropical storm to just a minimal storm with 40 mile per hour winds.
The forecast track of Gabrielle calls for the storm to head to the North-Northeast and accelerate over the next 48 to 72 hours. The storm is expected to be transitioning into a post-tropical or extratropical storm by the time it moves through the Canadian Maritimes on Friday and Saturday. Another area of trouble in the Atlantic is located over the Yucatan Peninsula. A broad area of low pressure exists over this region, and is expected to move into the Bay of Campeche region of the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday with the possibility of cloud and shower activity increasing. Right now, the NHC gives this low a 40 percent chance of development within the next 48 hours, and a 70 percent chance within the next five days.
Humberto Emerges and Is Poised to Become Season’s First Hurricane; Gabrielle Regenerates
Today is the statistical peak of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and almost on cue, the tropics seem to be finally firing up. Not only did the disturbance that Hurricaneville had been monitoring develop into the season’s eighth named storm, but it is also poised to become the season’s first hurricane, and the seventh named storm of the season also regenerated.
Tropical Storm Humberto became a depression late Sunday afternoon and has been gradually strengthening ever since in the Eastern Atlantic. Bringing Tropical Storm conditions to the Southern Cape Verde Islands on Monday, Humberto was classified as a storm early Monday morning, and now has winds of 65 miles per hour as it heads off to the West-Northwest at 9 miles per hour in the Eastern Atlantic some 150 miles to the West of the Southernmost Cape Verde Islands.
Satellite imagery estimates that Humberto has wind gusts in excess of hurricane force at 75 miles per hour while the minimum central pressure in the storm is estimated to be about 998 millibars or 29.47 inches of Hg (Mercury). Tropical storm force winds extend some 80 miles from the center of circulation. Humberto is currently on a gradual strengthening trend according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, and should become a hurricane later today. If it does, it will be the second latest that an Atlantic hurricane season has gone before having its first hurricane. The longest wait was in 2002 before Gustav formed on September 11th.
The good thing about Humberto is that it appears at this time to be a storm for the fish in the Atlantic. The latest forecast track from the NHC has the storm turning towards the north by Wednesday afternoon, and not turning back to the west until Saturday. By then, Humberto will already be at a latitude of the Northern Bahamas and it will still be in the Central Atlantic. So, it is unlikely that it will affect land in the United States, but it is still too early to tell. Hurricanes and tropical storms can be fickle and unpredictable storms, and although forecasts have improved greatly, these storms can still occasionally pull off a trick or two.
Meanwhile, closer to home in the Western Atlantic, the remnants of Gabrielle regenerated early Tuesday morning some 185 miles south of Bermuda. The storm has continued to track north in the past few hours, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds with Gabrielle are at minimal tropical storm force at 40 miles per hour with gusts up to 50 miles per hour, and a minimum central pressure of 1008 millibars, or 29.77 inches of Hg. The storm is moving to the north at 14 miles per hour, and it is expected to strengthen a bit to have 50 mile per hour winds before it becomes post-tropical in the next five days.
Gabrielle Becomes Seventh Named Storm of 2013 Season Before Weakening to Depression
There has been a lot of talk about how quiet things have been in the Tropical Atlantic this season. The region is still waiting for its first hurricane of the season. However, contrary to popular belief, the season is still ahead of the average pace for the Atlantic. With the formation of Tropical Storm Gabrielle on Thursday, there have now been seven depressions and seven named storms so far this season. Climatologically speaking, the Atlantic usually doesn’t see its seventh named storm until September 16th.
Still looking at climate, the statistical peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season is still not for another five days (September 10th), and on average, 69 percent of all tropical energy (tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes) etc, is created over the last three months of the season (September, October, and November). Most of that energy is in September. Despite all of that, there is still some surprise at the fact that we didn’t have a hurricane for the entire month of August, which is only the sixth time since 1960 that has occurred and the first time in 11 years. There is also a possibility that this season may have the latest first hurricane to form.
Coming into this year, the latest date that the first hurricane formed in the Atlantic during the satellite and radar era was 2002 with Gustav (September 11th). In 2002, there were only 12 named storms and 4 hurricanes. Looking at records, the Atlantic has only had its first hurricane form on or after September 1st a total of 25 times in 161 years. Will Gabrielle become the season’s first storm? Not likely. According to the 11:00 AM EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Gabrielle weakened to a depression. While it will bring copious amounts of rain to Puerto Rico and the Northern Leeward Islands, it is not forecast to get any stronger, and is actually expected to dissipate within 24 hours.
The combination of mountainous terrain over the Dominican Republic, wind shear, and the presence of another area of disturbed weather to the northeast has hindered Gabrielle’s development, and will bring about her demise. The storm has had a short life. It had just formed on Thursday afternoon to the south of Puerto Rico as a depression with 35 mile per hour winds. Within six hours, the depression became Gabrielle with winds of 40 miles per hour, gusts of 50 miles per hour, and a minimum central pressure of 1008 millibars, or 29.77 inches of Hg. The storm peaked at that point though as it remained very disorganized before being downgraded this morning with winds decreasing to 35 miles per hour, and pressure rising to 1011 millibars, or 29.85 inches of Hg.
Nevertheless, Gabrielle has brought with it a lot of rain. Earlier forecasts called for average amounts to be between 3 to 6 inches with isolated areas receiving as much as a foot. Those forecasts have been revised downward to just 2 to 4 inches with isolated areas possibly receiving 8 inches. Looking at the latest satellite imagery, there appears to be a lessening of the convection over Puerto Rico, but still a lot over the Virgin Islands. Further to the north, there is a lot more deeper convection associated with another disturbance, which may be absorbing Gabrielle into itself. This disturbance, which extends northward from the Northern Leeward islands into the Atlantic only has a 20 percent chance of developing over the next 48 hours to five days.
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