The June 29, 2012 edition of Hurricaneville’s Tracking The Tropics report covers activity in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Central Pacifc. Topics discussed include three disturbances being monitored in the Atlantic for development, and featured articles in the Hurricaneville Blogosphere.
As activity continues to try to ramp up in the Atlantic Basin, things are much different in the Eastern Pacific. The two storms that had been getting plenty of scrutiny earlier this week have begun to weaken. Tropical Storm Fernanda was barely that as it moved into the Central Pacific early Friday morning while Greg weakened to a Tropical Storm.
Once a strong Category One Hurricane with winds of 85 miles per hour, Greg has weakened to a strong tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 65 miles per hour along with a minimum central pressure of 991 millibars, or 29.26 inches of Hg. Peak wind gusts are estimated to be 75 miles per hour as the storm moves off to the west at 9 miles per hour.
Located some 455 miles to the Southwest of the tip of Baja California, Greg has tropical storm force winds extending some 85 miles from the center. The storm once had hurricane force winds reaching some 25 miles from the center. As of the 8:00 PM PDT discussion on Friday morning, Tropical Storm Greg moved into more cooler waters, and began the weakening process.
Currently in 25 degrees Celsius sea surface temperatures, Greg will be moving into even more cooler water, and weaken to a depression by Saturday, and a remnant low on Sunday. Meanwhile, Fernanda is still churning away in the Central Pacific. However, it is winding down in the cooler waters in the CPAC as expected.
Located some 780 miles to the East-Southeast of South Point, Hawaii, or 970 miles to the East-Southeast of Honolulu, Fernanda only had maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour with a minimum central pressure of 1002 millibars or 29.59 inches of Hg as it moved West at 12 miles per hour according to the 5:00 AM HST Advisory from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
While things have picked up in the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic, they are waning in the Western Pacific. Over the past few days, the site has been reporting on Tropical Storm Dujuan. On Saturday, there were indications that Dujuan would become a typhoon, and possibly affect Japan. However, on Sunday the forecast didn’t have Dujuan strengthening to anything more than a storm, and this morning, it has weakened to a depression.
According to the latest information from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Dujuan now only has winds of 30 knots, or 35 miles per hour with gusts reaching 40 knots, or 45 miles per hour. The cone of uncertainty takes Japan completely out of the picture as Dujuan is projected to move far to the south of the main island. The intensity forecast calls for Dujuan to remain at this intensity for the next 48 hours, or so, and then strengthen to have 45 knot, or 50 mile per hour winds by 72 hours. This increase in intensity is expected from a transition into an extratropical cyclone.
Looking at the latest infrared satellite imagery of the depression, it is easy to see that the center of circulation is pretty much exposed at this point. Much of the convection associated with the system is on the southern and western side of it. As Dujuan tracks to the Northeast, it will begin to encounter greater amounts of wind shear, which will assist in making it lose its tropical characteristics. Meanwhile, in the Central Pacific, conditions continue to be relatively tranquil over the Hawaiian Islands as shower and thunderstorm activity passes to the south of the 50th state.
According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii, no tropical formation is expected through early Wednesday morning. So far this season, there have been 6 depressions, 5 storms, and 2 hurricanes in this basin. Four of the tropical cyclones that have traversed this region originated in the Eastern Pacific.
Right now the only real serious activity at the moment throughout the tropics is Tropical Storm Dujuan. As of 2 AM EDT, the storm was located in the Western Pacific some 720 miles to the South-Southwest of Tokyo, Japan. Dujuan was packing winds of 55 miles per hour, and indications are that it will remain a storm after showing signs of becoming a typhoon on Saturday.
Looking at the latest info from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s web site, the storm has weakened to have winds of 50 miles per hour with gusts up to 60 miles per hour. The storm has moved to within 580 miles of Tokyo, and it is moving to the North-Northeast at 10 miles per hour. Maximum wave heights with Dujuan are still topping off at 25 feet.
The cone of uncertainty has shifted to the right a bit with the left fringe staying offshore near the Tokyo outskirts within 48 hours. The warning graphic also indicates no significant change in strength throughout the forecast period. Winds are only expected to increase to 50 knots, or 60 miles per hour with gusts up to 65 knots, or minimal hurricane force over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Looking at the latest infrared satellite imagery, you can see the system has fair outflow, and good convection along with banding. However, the Northeast quadrant appears to be weak, and the center is somewhat exposed there. The forecast discussion indicates that along with the lack of deep convection over the past 12 hours or so. Water vapor imagery indicates an upper level trough is entrenched over Japan, and is providing strong westerly winds to the North of Dujuan.
Consequently, the forecast track of the storm continues to head to the Northeast and accelerate with time. In addition, the poor organization of the system coupled with the strong westerly flow will prevent Dujuan from getting much stronger. Meanwhile, in the Central Pacific, conditions near Hawaii are quite tranquil despite the presence of some early morning clouds. The bulk of the convection is staying to the south and west of the island chain.