Three Days in Lower 90s Could Be Last of Season
There has been a lot of talk here in my blog lately about the tropics in terms of the storms that have been spinning up, or those that have the potential to. However, the theme of the Summer of 2016 has been the heat and humidity. GWC in South Plainfield has had at least 25 days of 90 degree plus temperatures. There have also been times where the humidity levels have been downright tropical.
Now that Labor Day has passed and we are now headed toward the fall equinox in a couple of weeks, temperatures usually begin to go down gradually. However, summer is attempting to make one last stand during this latter portion of the week. With Hermine now out of the way, the sun will return with a vengeance. Yesterday was a little glimpse of what to expect over the next several days.
Conditions were downright muggy across the Garden State from Little Falls in Passaic County to South Plainfield. The temperatures weren’t quite there yet, but starting on Thursday, they will. The Mercury is expected to rise up into the lower 90s, and remain there for highs through Saturday. There will be a weak cold front that will attempt to come through sometime late Thursday into Friday, but it won’t do much.
Another front is expected to arrive on Saturday night, and that will bring some relief. However, conditions will stay somewhat dry and warm until the middle of next week. The Weather Channel indicated that thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday with temperatures around 85, but then on next Thursday and Friday, a significant cool down with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
NHC Issues Final Advisory for Troublesome Storm
The long odyssey is over for New Jersey residents as well as others living in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. As of 2:00 PM EDT this afternoon, the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine was issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. All Tropical Storm and Coastal Warnings were discontinued.
Hermine still has some remnants stirring up some clouds, breezy conditions, and a little rain. I had just stepped outside about a half an hour ago to go for a walk around the neighborhood. I would say it was breezier tonight than it even was on Saturday when Hermine’s outer fringes were moving into New Jersey.
The barometric pressure dropped to 29.91 inches of Hg earlier today. So, over the last 36 hours or so, the barometer had dropped 0.30 inches, or about 10 millibars. The humidity has also continued to rise with it climbing to 68 percent for a dew point of 67 degrees. Winds actually gusted to 35 miles per hour today.
There are some bands of rain around the region. Rain is currently falling at Yankee Stadium as the Yanks are playing the Blue Jays. There is another band of showers developing over Central and Southern New Jersey from about New Brunswick to Ocean County. There is a 20 percent chance of rain on Wednesday morning.
As of this afternoon, Hermine was located some 120 miles south of the Eastern tip of Long Island, and moving to the West at 7 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds were at 50 miles per hour with gusts up to 65 miles per hour. Barometer was back up to 999 millibars, or 29.50 inches of Hg. Tropical storm force winds extended some 115 miles from the center.
What is left of Hermine is expected to turn to the Northeast on Wednesday, and gradually weaken. The storm is expected to drop below tropical storm strength over the next couple days. Hermine will be remembered though as the first hurricane to make landfall in Florida in 11 years.
This is a weather journal put together by Greg’s Weather Center to track the developments with Tropical Storm Hermine as it approaches and impacts the Mid-Atlantic including New Jersey over the Labor Day Weekend of 2016.
September 3, 2016
6:55 AM–Just woke up. Took a look outside and found that skies are partly cloudy. Some clouds including some cirrus and perhaps some altostratus coming in from the south. Possibly from Hermine. Light winds right now.
7:45 AM–Skies are now mostly overcast with altostratus clouds. Still have light winds. Temperature is 66 degrees. Humidity is 85 percent for a dew point of 61. Fairly comfortable outside. Light winds. Believe it or not , the barometric pressure is actually rising at 30.13 inches of Hg (Mercury).
9:44 AM–Just returned from going for a morning walk. Already seeing high cirrus clouds and some altostratus clouds that give the sky a milky gray look. There is still some sunshine. Nice breeze going outside as well. Joe Cioffi mentioned that the storm has taken on more of a look of an extra tropical system with the classic comma shaped signature on the satellite imagery. Seeing some rain bands coming further north than expected on the radar. Currently at GWC, the temperature is 70 degrees with the humidity at 81 percent for a dew point of 64. Heat index is 71 while the barometer is now steady at 30.13 inches of Hg.
1:22 PM–Just returned from going to the bank, grocery store, South Amboy’s Waterfront Park, and the gas station. Clouds continue to build in from the south. At South Amboy’s Waterfront Park, there was a good northeasterly to easterly fetch off of Raritan Bay. Had some altostratus clouds and some stratocumulus clouds building in. Back here at GWC in South Plainfield, there are some patches of blue sky around along with the occasional sun coming out. Do see altostratus and stratocumulus here as well. Temperature at GWC is now up to 73 degrees with the humidity at 63 percent for a dew point of 60. Barometer remains steady at 30.14 inches of Hg (Mercury). Light breeze continues.
2:25 PM–National Hurricane Center has now issued a Tropical Storm Warning for all of the Jersey Shore, New York City, Long Island, Long Island Sound including Southern Connecticut, and Rhode Island from Watch Hill westward. Taking a look outside, the sun is out, and it looks like things have cleared up somewhat. There are still some cirrus clouds and some cumulus clouds out, but there is quite a bit of blue sky, especially to the north. However, clouds remain to the south. I started a time lapse video at about 12:45 PM, which will go until about sunset. Temperature at GWC is at 75 degrees with the humidity at 59 percent for a dew point of 60 degrees and a heat index of 76. Barometer is starting to fall at 30.13 inches of Hg (Mercury).
3:34 PM–Took another look outside. Skies are blue with plenty of sun. Almost like an early fall day. However, there are some cirrus and cirrocumulus clouds overhead at GWC with some cumulus to the north. Off to the south, skies are more overcast. Temperature is still at 75 degrees. Humidity at 53 percent for a dew point of 57 for a heat index of 76. Barometer is still falling a little at 30.12 inches of Hg.
6:10 PM–Took another look outside. Skies are mostly clear. There are some cirrocumulus and cumulus clouds about, but there is a good deal of blue sky and some setting sun. Still have a little bit of a breeze out of the WNW. Temperature is down to 73 degrees. Humidity at 58 percent for a dew point of 57 degrees. Barometer steady at 30.10 inches of Hg (Mercury).
September 4, 2016
3:24 AM–Woke up about an hour ago after sleeping for around 6 hours. Stepped outside for a bit. Conditions are calm. Skies are mostly clear. Could see the stars. Not even much of a breeze like there was during the day on Saturday. Temperature at GWC is at 60 degrees with 92 percent humidity for a dew point of 58. Winds are calm. Barometer steady at 30.14 inches of Hg. Pressure actually rose 0.04 inches in the last 7 hours.
5:03 AM–Checked the GWC WX Station. Temperature is up to 62 degrees with the humidity at 84 percent for a dew point of 58. Winds are calm. Pressure up a couple more hundredths of an inch to 30.16 inches of Hg (Mercury).
7:05 AM–Just stepped outside for a little bit. Sun has come up, and the skies are mostly clear with the exception of some cirrocumulus clouds. Winds are calm. Temperature is at 61 degrees. Humidity is at 84 percent for a dew point of 57 degrees. Barometric pressure continues to rise at 30.19 inches of Hg.
8:30 AM–At Waterfront Park along Raritan Bay in South Amboy. Much more tranquil here than yesterday. Winds not as strong. Still have an easterly fetch, but water levels not as high.
9:50 AM–Leaving Keyport’s Waterfront Park and the winds are stronger now than earlier. Water levels have risen a little too.
10:22 AM–Leaving Fireman’s Park in Union Beach. Winds continue to pick up and the wave action here is much more significant. Was told by a lady from this area that one of the creeks is about to go over. Spray is coming over the top and there is some overwash on the walkway.
11:05 AM–About to depart Bayshore Waterfront Park in Port Monmouth. Still have some cirrocumulus clouds with slightly stronger winds. Waves and water levels higher here. Waves were coming up pretty high on the fishing pier.
11:46 AM–About to leave Sandy Hook. Winds were lighter here, but the wave action and surf were more significant. More cirrocumulus and small cumulus clouds to south and east. Larger waves with shorter periods. Very heavy surf. Nobody in the water. Swimming not allowed today.
1:18 PM–Just returned from my trip down the Northern Jersey Shore. Have a little bit more of a breeze outside in the yard. Could see cirrocumulus clouds off to the south. Temperature at GWC is at 77 degrees. Humidity is low at 45 percent for a dew point of 54. Barometric pressure is up to 30.21 inches of Hg, but steady.
4:03 PM–Went out into the yard to checkup on the time lapse video running. Not too much to worry about. Very light wind. Some cirrus and cirrocumulus clouds off to the south. Temperature is up to 80 degrees. Humidity has dropped to 40 percent for a dew point of 53. Barometer is falling though to 30.17 inches of Hg.
5:57 PM–Leaving South Amboy’s Waterfront Park after taking a trip there following a workout at Edison Park behind Middlesex County College. Conditions at Edison Park was sunny with cirrocumulus clouds off to the south and east. It also was quite breezy. At South Amboy, I had just arrived after low tide so the wave action wasn’t bad at all. Winds had also slackened. Had some cirrus clouds overhead and cirrocumulus clouds to the south and east.
8:16 PM–Checked the data on the GWC WX Station. Temperature is at 69 degrees with the humidity at 73 percent for a dew point of 61 degrees. Barometer is rising at 30.19 inches of Hg. Winds are calm.
September 5, 2016
2:40 AM–Just took a look at the radar courtesy of the Weather Channel. Shower and thunderstorm activity has picked up with Hermine. Coastal Flood Warning in effect now. Tropical Storm Warning is cancelled.
8:12 AM–Took a step outside. Skies are mostly overcast, especially to the south of GWC. Winds are calm. Temperature is 61 degrees with the humidity at 90 percent for a dew point of 58. Barometer is still high at 30.21 inches of Hg, but steady.
9:10 AM–Went outside into the backyard. Saw some cirrus clouds off to the north and altostratus clouds to the south and east. Temperature is at 65 degrees with the humidity down to 75 percent for a dew point of 57. Barometer is now rising at 30.20 inches of Hg. Winds are calm.
10:51 AM–Leaving South Amboy’s Waterfront Park. High tide approaching, but the water was more tranquil than it was on Saturday despite the increase in clouds. Still have a northeasterly fetch, but it is not as strong.
11:33 AM– Returned home. Skies are more overcast. Light winds. Temperature up to 72 degrees. Humidity at 64 percent for a dew point of 59. Barometer falling at 30.17 inches.
4:27 PM–Just took a step outside. Skies are mostly sunny, but there are some cirrus and cirrocumulus clouds around. Has also become quite breezy out. Temperature up to 83, but the moisture is on the increase and the barometer is falling. Humidity at 48 percent for a dew point of 61 while the barometric pressure is down to 30.01 inches of Hg, and falling sharply.
6:23 PM–Stepped outside briefly. Went into the backyard. Cirrus clouds overhead. A little more humid. Temperature actually went up to 84 degrees. Humidity up to 50 percent for a dew point of 62. Winds are light. Barometer still falling at 29.99 inches of Hg.
7:40 PM–Just returned from going for a walk outside. Definitely feeling more humid. A lot more cirrus and cirrocumulus clouds, especially off to the south and east. Not as much of a breeze now. Temperature at GWC in South Plainfield, NJ is down to 80 degrees. Humidity up to 58 percent for a dew point of 64 now. Winds are calm, but the barometer continues to fall at 29.98 inches of Hg (Mercury).
September 6, 2016
7:05 AM–Heading to work. Skies are mostly cloudy. Still feeling some of the effects from Hermine. Temperature is 72 degrees.
10:30 AM–Taking my first break at work. Took a walk around the building. A little humid and breezy with some blue sky, cirrocumulus, altostratus, and stratocumulus clouds.
7:00 PM–Leaving work. A bit muggy outside. Lots of clouds. Stratus and stratocumulus clouds.
9:08 PM–Arrived home about an hour ago. No rain has fallen although I heard on the radio that we could be getting some rain from the remnants of Hermine. Temperature is 78 degrees. Humidity is at 68 percent. Dew point is at 67 degrees. Winds are calm. Barometer is steady at 29.95 inches of Hg. No rain is falling yet.
9:56 PM–Just returned from an evening walk. Quite breezy outside. I would say that it is more breezy tonight than it was on Saturday morning when Hermine was heading up the coast. Felt a couple of rain drops, but no significant rain falling yet. NHC issued last advisory on Hermine earlier this evening.
Gradual Warm-Up Begins on Tuesday with Temps in 90s Towards End of Week
While Hermine has apparently left the picture for New Jersey, the heat and humidity, which has been a theme for the Summer of 2016, is expected to return starting on Tuesday. Models had been indicating this since last week, and the only thing that kept temperatures from rising a bit this weekend was the cloud cover due to the presence of Hermine.
Hermine is expected to linger off the coast of Long Island over the next couple of days before finally moving out toward the Canadian Maritimes by the latter portion of the week. Hermine will be replaced by a ridge of high pressure that will shift winds in from the west and with it, temperatures that will gradually rise into the 90s by the middle or latter portion of the week.
The high temperature at GWC in South Plainfield, NJ on Labor Day was 83 degrees. The latest forecast from the National Weather Service Office in Mount Holly, New Jersey indicates that the temperature on Tuesday will climb into the mid 80s, and into the upper 80s on Wednesday with a low chance of a shower. Thursday, the Mercury is expected to climb into the low 90s, and stay there for the high school football openers on Friday.
A weak cold front is expected to move through the area on Friday, but it will have no effect on the heat. However, another more stronger cold front is expected to come through on Saturday evening, and that will break what is hopefully the final heat wave of the year, but not before another 90 degree day with the forecast high of 92. The Weather Channel is calling for highs of 93 on Thursday and Friday before a high of 91 on Saturday.
Tropical Storm Warnings Discontinued for the Garden State
Hermine continued to move further to the east on Sunday and while the surf along New Jersey beaches remained treacherous, the more significant threat of tropical storm force winds and rain diminished. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Jersey Shore was discontinued on Sunday night, but a Coastal Flood Warning remained in effect.
On Sunday afternoon, GWC and Hurricaneville took another trip down to South Amboy’s Waterfront Park along Raritan Bay to check conditions there. We arrived there just after low tide and the easterly fetch wasn’t as significant as it was in the morning or on Saturday. Winds had also eased up somewhat. Skies were sunny with the exception of cirrus clouds overhead and cirrocumulus clouds to the south and east.
During the evening and overnight hours, Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine strengthened somewhat with shower and thunderstorm activity increasing. The storm also moved a little bit more to the west on radar. These thunderstorms were far away from the Jersey Shore though. Nevertheless, there are more clouds over GWC in South Plainfield on this Labor Day morning.
Cirrus clouds could be seen to the north and west of GWC while altostratus clouds developed to the south and east. The radar imagery courtesy of the Weather Channel showed some clouds spreading over the Garden State while bands of showers and storms are still holding together further to the east over the open waters of the Atlantic and to the north and west to the center of circulation.
Looking at the latest with Hermine, the storm is currently located some 295 miles to the Southeast of the Eastern tip of Long Island. Maximum sustained winds remain at 70 miles per hour with gusts in upwards of 85 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure has dropped slightly to 997 millibars, or about 29.44 inches of Hg (Mercury). Tropical storm force winds extend some 230 miles from the center as Hermine grew in size over the past 24 hours.
Hermine is expected to continue to meander slowly off the Mid-Atlantic coast for the next couple days. The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center indicates that the storm will make its closest approach to the Jersey Shore on Tuesday before turning more northward and northeastward on Wednesday and heading out to the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes on Thursday and Friday. Hermine will begin to gradually weaken over the next 24 hours, and is forecast to dissipate in five days.
Change in Storm Path Leaves Only Coastal Areas With Any Impacts
This morning, Greg’s Weather Center and Hurricaneville took a trip out to several locations along the Northern portion of the Jersey Shore. From South Amboy and Laurence Harbor in Middlesex County to Cliffwood Beach down to Sandy Hook in Monmouth County, we checked both the weather and surf conditions from Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine offshore.
Prior to leaving though, we noticed that the barometric pressure was running quite high at 30.19 inches of Hg (Mercury), and still rising. With such high pressure, one could only surmise that good weather was on tap. News reports indicated that Hermine had gone further east than expected, which took much of the clouds, wind, and waves away from the shoreline.
Sky conditions at all the locations we visited on this Sunday morning where mostly sunny with some cirrocumulus clouds. It was hard to believe that a powerful storm was just a few hundred miles offshore. Only when we got down to Keyport’s Waterfront Park did we begin to notice that the winds had picked up a bit. Further down the Bayshore in Union Beach, the water levels increased and the wave action picked up a bit.
Spray and some sea water was coming over the barrier at Union Beach to create some overwash on the walkway near Fireman’s Park. Talking to some of the people there, we learned that one of the creeks was beginning to fill up from the increased surf and wakes piling up. Waves crashed along the pier at Bayshore Waterfront Park in Port Monmouth as well. The most significant wave action would be at Sandy Hook, where nobody was allowed to go in the water.
The waves were large, numerous, and frequent, which turned the ocean into a more foamy grey color. Winds were actually lighter at Sandy Hook, but the surf was still rough. Clouds were also on the increase with more cirrocumulus clouds along with some small cumulus clouds. There are some photos and video from some of the heavy surf along the coast during our trip on the GWC and Hurricaneville Facebook page and Twitter feed.
Returning to GWC in South Plainfield, we noticed that the light winds returned, but the barometric pressure was still high at 30.20 inches of Hg, and the humidity levels were considerably lower. The dew point was only in the mid 50s. So, the combination of rising pressure and falling humidity only signified that the storm was pulling away from New Jersey. Nevertheless, the post-tropical cyclone is expected to make a turn back toward the coast, but it won’t get as close as previously forecast.
The Jersey Shore will be were most if not all of the action from this storm will be. The main threat will be the coastal flooding from the significant wave action and heavy surf, especially during high tide on Sunday night and Monday morning. Tides are expected to between 3 and 5 feet above normal from Sandy Hook to Cape May. There will be some winds up to tropical storm force along with a little bit of rain according to Meteorologist Joe Cioffi.
Currently, Post-Tropical Storm Hermine remains offshore about 300 miles to the South-Southeast of the Eastern tip of Long Island, or about 325 miles to the East-Southeast of Ocean City, Maryland. The storm is now moving slowly to the East-Northeast at 6 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds have now increased again to 70 miles per hour with gusts up to 85 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure with Hermine has risen slightly to 999 millibars, or 29.50 inches of Hg (Mercury).
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Cape Charles Light, Virginia on the southern tip of the Delmarva Peninsula to just west of Watch Hill, Rhode Island including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch continues to be in effect from Watch Hill, Rhode Island eastward to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket. Know your watches and warnings. Coastal residents in these warned areas should be prepared for dangerous storm surge.
As mentioned earlier in this post, Hermine tracked further to the east so everything has shifted over somewhat in terms of the forecast track. Hermine is expected to move more to the north over the next 24 to 36 hours, and then turn towards the east again. However, Hermine is still expected to be several hundred miles off the coast of Eastern Long Island and Southern New England on Wednesday morning. Hermine’s strength during the next five days is expected to peak at 75 miles per hour within the next 36 to 48 hours.
Warnings Extended to New Jersey, New York City, Long Island, Long Island Sound, and parts of Rhode Island
The Garden State including Middlesex County and GWC here in South Plainfield are now in the crosshairs of Tropical Storm Hermine, which has now become post-tropical. Tropical Storm Warnings have now been extended to the Jersey Shore including Sandy Hook, Long Island to New York City, and west of Watch Hill, Rhode Island including the South Shore of Connecticut.
A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect from east of Watch Hill to Sagamore Beach in Rhode Island, Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket in Massachusetts. Make sure that you know your watches and warnings. Presently, Hermine is located 35 miles to the East-Southeast of Duck, North Carolina, or 80 miles to the Southeast of Norfolk, Virginia.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine is moving to the East-Northeast at 15 miles per hour, but that is expected to change as the storm is expected to slow down. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 65 miles per hour with gusts up to 75 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure in Hermine is at 995 millibars, or 29.38 inches of Hg. Hermine is a vast system now with tropical storm force winds extending some 205 miles from the center of circulation.
A Dangerous Storm Surge event is possible along the coastline from Virginia to New Jersey. The reason for that is what had been mentioned before about Hermine slowing down. This could be a prolonged storm surge or coastal flooding event that is also coinciding with astronomical high tide because of the full moon. Moral of the story is that we could be seeing a situation very similar to the Ash Wednesday Storm of 1962 where the storm lingers offshore during several high tide cycles, which would cause significant damage to many coastal areas.
Looking at the satellite imagery in Joe Cioffi’s live Facebook broadcast this morning, it was no surprise that Hermine was classified as post-tropical. The storm’s structure had taken on a more non-tropical or extratropical cyclone look with the classic comma shaped signature. Despite the change in classification of the storm, it still remains a very potent and dangerous system. In addition, the changeover from a tropical to non-tropical cyclone also results in energy transfer, which in turn invigorates the storm and intensifies it.
The latest forecast discussion from the National Hurricane Center indicates that Hermine will actually strengthen some more with maximum sustained winds increasing to minimal hurricane force at 75 miles per hour within 36 hours, and remain at that strength for another day and a half before weakening a little. Even at four days, winds are expected to be at 70 miles per hour, and 60 miles per hour at the end of the five day forecast period.
Taking a gander at the forecast track, the storm is expected to remain offshore according to the NHC’s consensus guidance. However, coastal New Jersey, New York City, Long Island, Southern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts are in the Cone of Uncertainty right now. The storm is expected to linger off the coastline of New England and the Mid-Atlantic through Thursday morning. The reason for this is not only because of Hermine’s interaction with an upper level shortwave, but also because of ridges of high pressure to the north and to the west preventing it from going out to sea.
All coastal residents in the Mid-Atlantic and New England need to make final preparations for the storm and be prepared to evacuate if necessary. This is a very serious and dangerous situation developing for the Northeast. So, please follow your local news, radio, and favorite weather app for the latest information on Hermine.
First Hurricane to Make Landfall in Sunshine State in 11 Years; New Jersey and Mid-Atlantic Under Tropical Storm Watch
After much struggle over the course of the past 10 days or so, what had been Invest 99L finally got itself going and not only became a depression, but eventually emerged as the eighth named storm of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and the season’s fourth hurricane. Hermine came ashore early this morning in Florida near St. Mark’s in the Big Bend region of the Sunshine State.
Hermine, which has since weakened to a tropical storm, became the first hurricane since Hurricane Wilma in October 2005 to make landfall in the Sunshine State. The storm broke a period of incredible luck for a state that is often affected by tropical storms and hurricanes. The storm isn’t done yet either. While it has taken a hit, Hermine again is still a tropical storm, and is expected to move out over water again soon.
The threat from the tropical storm has now extended northward with even the home state of Greg’s Weather Center under a Tropical Storm Watch. New Jersey as well as the rest of the Mid-Atlantic could feel the effects from the storm as early as late Saturday night, and they could linger into Labor Day. So, if you have any plans to head to the beach, you might want to keep your eyes peeled to various weather media outlets or any weather app on your smartphone to keep you apprised of the situation.
Currently, Tropical Storm Hermine is located some 35 miles Northeast of Valdosta, Georgia. The system is moving at a somewhat brisk pace to the North-Northeast at 14 miles per hour. Again the storm has weakened with maximum sustained winds decreasing to 60 miles per hour and wind gusts dropping to only 85 miles per hour, but these winds can still pack a punch. Minimum central pressure with the storm has risen to 987 millibars, or 29.21 inches of Hg (Mercury).
The storm has grown to a decent size with tropical storm force winds extending some 175 miles from the center. As of 8:00 AM, a wind gust from Hermine of 46 miles per hour was reported as far away as Brunswick, Georgia and St. Augustine, Florida a good deal away from the center. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Englewood, Florida to the Ochlockonee River, Flagler/Volusia County line on the Florida/Georgia border to Duck in North Carolina including Pamlico and Albermarle Sounds.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for North of Duck in North Carolina to Sandy Hook here in New Jersey, Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward, and Southern Delaware Bay. Interests in the Northeast should closely monitor developments with Tropical Storm Hermine. The storm’s intensity forecast indicates that Hermine will continue to weaken with time since it will be over land. Hermine will remain tropical over the next 48 hours before transitioning to a post-tropical storm on Sunday.
The forecast track of Hermine shows that the storm will be hugging the coast from Georgia into South Carolina and North Carolina before emerging over the water again near the North Carolina/Virginia border on Saturday evening. The storm will be several hundred miles southeast of the Jersey Shore on Monday morning, and could actually linger offshore for much of Sunday and Monday.
Tracking Severe Weather Threat for New Jersey on Sunday
Greg’s Weather Center has put together a journal of weather conditions during the course of the day on August 21st to track severe weather developments as a cold front pushes into New Jersey from the west.
August 21, 2016
7:00 AM–Took a look at the GWC WX Station just before going out for a walk on Sunday morning. Temperature is at 73 degrees and the dew point is at 70.
9:42 AM–Returned from playing some basketball up at Mobus Field by Watchung Lake. Temperature is now up to 81 degrees. Humidity is very high at 75 percent for a dew point of 73 degrees. Heat index now up to 87. Barometer steady at 29.83 inches of Hg. Had some rain earlier this morning. Only about 0.01 inches. Add that to the 0.05 inches from a sun shower on Saturday afternoon, and the rainfall total for the month at GWC is now up to 1.30 inches, and for the year it is 22.60 inches.
1:40 AM–Been outside periodically to check up on the time lapse video that I’m putting together for today’s weather. Have some nice cumulus clouds developing. There is a little bit of a breeze. Still warm and humid. Temperature is now up to 87 degrees with the humidity at 61 percent. Dew point is at 72 degrees for a heat index of 93. Barometer falling sharply at 29.77 inches of Hg.
3:10 PM–Skies getting overcast and dark outside GWC in South Plainfield, NJ. Checked the radar, and the showers and storms that were in Eastern Pennsylvania are now moving into Western New Jersey. The outer bands of those showers and storms are in Somerset County right now. Temperature is down to 86 degrees. Humidity is up to 65 percent. Dew point is at 73 for a heat index of 92. Barometer continues to fall sharply at 29.74 inches of Hg. Winds are picking up.
3:37 PM–Took another step outside to check conditions. Felt a little raindrop on my hand. Temperature is down to 84 degrees. Humidity steady at 65 percent. Dew point is down a little to 72 degrees for a heat index of 90. Barometer still at 29.74 inches of Hg, but falling. Winds are light.
6:43 PM–Rain has been falling since around 5:00 PM. Light to moderate rainfall though. So far, there has been 0.15 inches of rain at GWC in South Plainfield. Temperature is down to 76 degrees. Humidity is up to 94 percent for a dew point of 74. Heat index is 79. Barometer is steady at 29.74 inches of Hg.
10:31 PM–Rain has stopped. Total rainfall for the day is 0.17 inches at GWC in South Plainfield, NJ. Temperature is 75 degrees. Humidity is still up at 96 percent for a dew point of 74 and a heat index of 79. Barometer is rising at 29.77 inches of Hg.
August 22, 2016
6:00 AM–Woke up about an hour ago. About to go out for a morning walk. Cold front has passed through. Checked the GWC WX Station. Temperature is down to 66 degrees. Probably the lowest morning temperature we’ve had in several weeks. Dew point is also down to 63 degrees.
8:09 AM–Came back from doing a morning run and a couple of errands. Temperature is up to 68 degrees with the dew point at 63. It is also a little breezy outside. Barometer is rising rapidly at 29.93 inches of Hg. Total rainfall from Sunday was 0.17 inches. Total for the month is now 1.46. Total rain for the year is now 22.76 inches.
Some Storms Could Be Severe As Front Approaches From West
Over the last couple weeks here in New Jersey, there has been a tremendous amount of humidity. Last weekend, dew points were in the upper 70s to low 80s. For example, the dew point on Saturday at GWC was 82, and it was 81 last Sunday. Although storms earlier this week quelled some of the humidity, the dew points have remained quite high.
After some pleasant weather on Wednesday, the dew points went back up into the low to mid 70s from Thursday to Sunday morning. Fortunately, temperatures weren’t as warm as they were during the recent heatwave so conditions have been a bit more comfortable. A refreshing change is on the way though, but it will come as the result of some afternoon and evening thunderstorms on Sunday.
A cold front has been pushing eastward through the country. On Saturday, the frontal system was responsible for producing severe weather in Michigan and Ohio as well as other locations in the Midwest. There were 11 different severe weather reports from the weather on Saturday in Michigan and Ohio, which is the most since July 7th according to The Weather Channel.
Now, the front is pushing into the Northeast. Showers and storms are already firing up in Western Pennsylvania and New York, and that weather will be inching closer and closer to the Garden State, New York City, and Philadelphia as the day progresses on Sunday. Storms are forecast to affect GWC and Central Jersey sometime during the late afternoon and early evening.
The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has put sections of Eastern Pennsylvania and Western New Jersey under a marginal risk for severe storms. The National Weather Service Office in Mount Holly, New Jersey issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for the entire Garden State on Sunday. Conditions possible with these storms include strong wind gusts, hail, heavy rainfall, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning.
So far this month, GWC has received far less rain than it did in July. As of this morning, there has only been 1.30 inches of rain here in South Plainfield. Last month, there was over six inches of rain. June saw several inches of rainfall. There have been a number of severe weather incidents at GWC within the past month. Most notable were the incidents on July 18th and July 25th. Both events were spurred on by tremendous heat and humidity.
There were some strong storms overnight on Tuesday into Wednesday at GWC. Heavy thunder with vivid lightning accompanied these storms, which also had some gusty winds that brought down large tree limbs not only in the neighborhood outside GWC, but also in nearby Piscataway. Yesterday, the heat and humidity produced storms that dumped torrential rain in Long Island during the early afternoon. Behind the front will be some welcome changes though.
After some lingering showers on Monday morning, the temperature and dew point levels will drop. The Mercury will have a tough time getting into the 80s over the next two or three days early next week, and lows will dip into the 50s. Dew points will be much more comfortable. So, there will be some short term pain with the storms this afternoon, but that will yield a much deserved reward to start the final two weeks of August.
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